Rates Dream of Green Christmas With Help From The Fed

Bonds Ultimately Shrug Off Stronger Jobs Data Today saw a fairly impressive round trip for rates following the stronger-than-expected jobs report. The initial reaction was clear and unsurprising. NFP (and especially wages... recently mentioned by Powell) came out higher and rates immediately jumped. Stocks also tanked on the news because both sides of the market were trading the Fed outlook. After the initial convulsion, bonds gathered their composure and began the long slog back to unchanged levels by the 3pm CME close. Today's video discusses a few ways to rationalize that, but ultimately, we would not feel the need to rationalize anything if bonds had ended slightly weaker. Econ Data / EventsNonfarm Payrolls263k vs 200k f'cast, 284k prev Wages0.6 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.5 prev Unemployment rate3.7 vs 3.7 f'cast/prev Market Movement Recap08:53 AM Sharply weaker after the NFP with a bit of a bounce now. 10yr still up 6.7bps at 3.576. MBS down roughly 5/8ths of a point. 12:31 PM Decent recovery into the PM hours. MBS down less than 3/8ths now which is roughly a half point above the AM lows. 10yr yields up only 5bps at 3.56 after being as high as 3.64 earlier. 02:34 PM Almost all the way back to unchanged levels now, both in Treasuries and MBS. 10yr up only 1bp on the day at 3.521. MBS down only 3 ticks (.09). 04:10 PM All the way back into positive territory and then some, albeit after hours at this point. 10yr down 2.8bps at 3.482. MBS up just over an eighth of a point.

December 2, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary Bonds Ultimately Shrug Off Stronger Jobs Data Bonds Ultimately Shrug Off Stronger Jobs Data Today saw a fairly impressive round trip for rates following the stronger-than-expected jobs report. The initial reaction was clear and unsurprising. ... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Rates Dream of Green Christmas With Help From The Fed As far as financial markets are concerned, a green Christmas is better than anything Bing Crosby could have crooned about. Green is the color that flashes when markets are improving or when interest rates are falling. Green, for lack of a better word... (read more) Rob Chrisman Corresp. DPA, Marketing, Profitability Tracking Tools; Lender and Investor News Robert K. writes, “My Mom always said, ‘Work until your bank account looks like a phone number. Well, I did it! ‘Available balance: $911.’” Speaking of numbers, thank you to those who wrote to me correcting the GDP of Mexico here as being $1.4 trilli... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.34% +0.05% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.34% +0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.78% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.80% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.75% 0.00 0.00 5/1 ARM 5.98% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.82% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 12/2 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.78% +0.03% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.76% -0.14 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 12/1 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.67% -0.23 0.68 15 Yr. Fixed 6.08% -0.19 0.70 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.30% -0.21 0.74 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 11/23 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.20 +0.02 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 100.20 +0.02 UMBS 5.5 101.70 +0.09 GNMA 5.0 100.42 +0.03 GNMA 5.5 101.58 +0.16 Pricing as of: 12/2 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.4898 -0.0205 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.274 +0.038 5 YR Treasury 3.654 -0.012 7 YR Treasury 3.589 -0.011 10 YR Treasury 3.490 -0.021 30 YR Treasury 3.552 -0.052 Pricing as of: 12/2 5:31PM EST Latest Video Household debt rockets higher as savings drop following busy holiday weeken... Four experts break down November's hotter-than-expected jobs report U.S. adds 263,000 jobs in November, more than expected despite Fed rate hik... The 9am Bond Report - December 2, 2022 Around the Web Reuters Reuters Poll: U.S. House Prices to Fall 12% Peak to Trough - Analysts CNBC Here's where the jobs are for November 2022 in one chart CNBC Payrolls rose by 263,000 in November, more than expected despite Fed rate hikes Calculated Risk Rents Falling Faster than "Seasonality Alone" HUD FHA Announces Updated Loan Limits at 472,030, as Expected Reuters U.S. Fed policy now more hawkish than policy rules suggest is needed Calculated Risk Blog Comments on November Employment Report Eye on Housing Apartment Absorption Rate Reaches 25-year High Reuters Euro zone producer prices fall more than expected m/m in Oct Eye on Housing October Private Residential Spending Falls CNBC Economist Austan Goolsbee named next Chicago Fed president Calculated Risk Blog ISM Manufacturing index Declined to 49.0% in November CNBC U.S. Treasury yields mixed as traders await key U.S. jobs report

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