Bonds Ultimately Shrug Off Stronger Jobs Data Today saw a fairly impressive round trip for rates following the stronger-than-expected jobs report.  The initial reaction was clear and unsurprising.  NFP (and especially wages... recently mentioned by Powell) came out higher and rates immediately jumped.  Stocks also tanked on the news because both sides of the market were trading the Fed outlook. After the initial convulsion, bonds gathered their composure and began the long slog back to unchanged levels by the 3pm CME close.  Today's video discusses a few ways to rationalize that, but ultimately, we would not feel the need to rationalize anything if bonds had ended slightly weaker.  Econ Data / EventsNonfarm Payrolls263k vs 200k f'cast, 284k prev Wages0.6 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.5 prev Unemployment rate3.7 vs 3.7 f'cast/prev Market Movement Recap08:53 AM Sharply weaker after the NFP with a bit of a bounce now.  10yr still up 6.7bps at 3.576.  MBS down roughly 5/8ths of a point. 12:31 PM Decent recovery into the PM hours.  MBS down less than 3/8ths now which is roughly a half point above the AM lows.  10yr yields up only 5bps at 3.56 after being as high as 3.64 earlier. 02:34 PM Almost all the way back to unchanged levels now, both in Treasuries and MBS.  10yr up only 1bp on the day at 3.521.  MBS down only 3 ticks (.09).  04:10 PM All the way back into positive territory and then some, albeit after hours at this point.  10yr down 2.8bps at 3.482.  MBS up just over an eighth of a point.
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December 2, 2022
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MBS Commentary
Bonds Ultimately Shrug Off Stronger Jobs Data Today saw a fairly impressive round trip for rates following the stronger-than-expected jobs report.  The initial reaction was clear and unsurprising.  ... (read more)
Mortgage Rate Watch
As far as financial markets are concerned, a green Christmas is better than anything Bing Crosby could have crooned about. Green is the color that flashes when markets are improving or when interest rates are falling. Green, for lack of a better word... (read more)
Rob Chrisman
Robert K. writes, “My Mom always said, ‘Work until your bank account looks like a phone number. Well, I did it! ‘Available balance: $911.’” Speaking of numbers, thank you to those who wrote to me correcting the GDP of Mexico here as being $1.4 trilli... (read more)
Mortgage Rates
MBS / Treasuries