Dollar Rebounds as Solid NFP Eases Urgency for Fed Action
| Action Insight Mid-Day 7-3-25 |
Dollar Rebounds as Solid NFP Eases Urgency for Fed Action |
Dollar rebounded in early US session following the better-than-expected June non-farm payrolls report, further reversing much of the week's earlier weakness. While not a blowout, the report showed a labor market that remains fundamentally resilient, and significantly reduces pressure on the Fed to pull the trigger at the July meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his like-minded colleagues have been clear they want more clarity on trade policy and inflation before moving. Today’s data buys the Fed more time to assess broader risks. The drop in wage growth could help the case for resuming cuts later this year, but not imminently. On Capitol Hill, political developments are also in focus. House Republicans overnight broke a legislative deadlock and advanced President Donald Trump’s massive tax-and-spending bill. With the Senate already having passed the measure, attention turns to a final House vote, potentially before July 4. In currency markets, Dollar is leading gains today, and it's no longer at the bottom of the weekly performance ladder. Loonie and Sterling are also firming, while Kiwi, Yen, and Aussie lag. Euro and Swiss Franc are positioning in the middle..... |
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.24; (P) 143.74; (R1) 144.17; More... USD/JPY's rebound suggests that fall from 148.01 might have completed at 142.66. But still, it's staying inside near term established range. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 148.01 resistance will resume the rise from 139.87 to 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22. However, break of 142.10 will bring deeper fall back to retest 139.87 low. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 00:30 | JPY | Services PMI Jun F | 51.7 | 51.5 | 51.5 | | 01:30 | AUD | Trade Balance (AUD) May | 2.24B | 5.08B | 5.41B | 4.86B | | 01:45 | CNY | Caixin Services PMI Jun | 50.6 | 51 | 51.1 | | 06:30 | CHF | CPI M/M Jun | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.10% | | 06:30 | CHF | CPI Y/Y Jun | 0.10% | -0.10% | -0.10% | | 07:50 | EUR | France Services PMI Jun F | 49.6 | 48.7 | 48.7 | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Services PMI Jun F | 49.7 | 49.4 | 49.4 | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services PMI Jun F | 50.5 | 50 | 50 | | 08:30 | GBP | Services PMI Jun F | 52.8 | 51.3 | 51.3 | | 11:30 | EUR | ECB Meeting Accounts | | 12:30 | CAD | Trade Balance (CAD) May | -5.9B | -6.0B | -7.1B | -7.6B | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 27) | 233K | 239K | 236K | 237K | | 12:30 | USD | Nonfarm Payrolls Jun | 147K | 110K | 139K | 144K | | 12:30 | USD | Unemployment Rate Jun | 4.10% | 4.30% | 4.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Average Hourly Earnings M/M Jun | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.40% | | 12:30 | USD | Trade Balance (USD) May | -71.5B | -69.9B | -61.6B | -60.3B | | 13:45 | USD | Services PMI Jun F | 53.1 | 53.1 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Services PMI Jun | 50.3 | 49.9 | | 14:00 | USD | Factory Orders M/M May | 7.90% | -3.70% | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 48B | 96B |
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