Dollar Rebounds as Solid NFP Eases Urgency for Fed Action

Action Insight Mid-Day 7-3-25

Dollar Rebounds as Solid NFP Eases Urgency for Fed Action

Dollar rebounded in early US session following the better-than-expected June non-farm payrolls report, further reversing much of the week's earlier weakness. While not a blowout, the report showed a labor market that remains fundamentally resilient, and significantly reduces pressure on the Fed to pull the trigger at the July meeting.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his like-minded colleagues have been clear they want more clarity on trade policy and inflation before moving. Today’s data buys the Fed more time to assess broader risks. The drop in wage growth could help the case for resuming cuts later this year, but not imminently.

On Capitol Hill, political developments are also in focus. House Republicans overnight broke a legislative deadlock and advanced President Donald Trump’s massive tax-and-spending bill. With the Senate already having passed the measure, attention turns to a final House vote, potentially before July 4.

In currency markets, Dollar is leading gains today, and it's no longer at the bottom of the weekly performance ladder. Loonie and Sterling are also firming, while Kiwi, Yen, and Aussie lag. Euro and Swiss Franc are positioning in the middle.....

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USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.24; (P) 143.74; (R1) 144.17; More...

USD/JPY's rebound suggests that fall from 148.01 might have completed at 142.66. But still, it's staying inside near term established range. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 148.01 resistance will resume the rise from 139.87 to 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22. However, break of 142.10 will bring deeper fall back to retest 139.87 low.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
00:30 JPY Services PMI Jun F 51.7 51.5 51.5
01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) May 2.24B 5.08B 5.41B 4.86B
01:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI Jun 50.6 51 51.1
06:30 CHF CPI M/M Jun 0.20% 0.10% 0.10%
06:30 CHF CPI Y/Y Jun 0.10% -0.10% -0.10%
07:50 EUR France Services PMI Jun F 49.6 48.7 48.7
07:55 EUR Germany Services PMI Jun F 49.7 49.4 49.4
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Jun F 50.5 50 50
08:30 GBP Services PMI Jun F 52.8 51.3 51.3
11:30 EUR ECB Meeting Accounts
12:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) May -5.9B -6.0B -7.1B -7.6B
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 27) 233K 239K 236K 237K
12:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls Jun 147K 110K 139K 144K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Jun 4.10% 4.30% 4.20%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M Jun 0.20% 0.30% 0.40%
12:30 USD Trade Balance (USD) May -71.5B -69.9B -61.6B -60.3B
13:45 USD Services PMI Jun F 53.1 53.1
14:00 USD ISM Services PMI Jun 50.3 49.9
14:00 USD Factory Orders M/M May 7.90% -3.70%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 48B 96B