Dollar Rebounds as NFP and Wages Beat Forecasts, Tariff Impact Yet to Materialize
| Action Insight Mid-Day 6-6-25 |
Dollar Rebounds as NFP and Wages Beat Forecasts, Tariff Impact Yet to Materialize |
Dollar staged a firm comeback today following slightly better-than-expected non-farm payroll figures, with job growth at 139k and wage growth coming in strong at 0.4% mom. While not a blowout report, the data was enough to alleviate immediate concerns of a sharp labor market slowdown. Stock futures also advanced, suggesting that investors are reassessing the near-term risks from tariffs and focusing instead on the resilience in headline economic indicators. Despite ongoing caution over the economic toll of US trade policy, particularly with the expiration of the 90-day tariff truce looming in July, the effects haven’t yet registered decisively in labor markets. In fact, the stronger-than-expected wage growth might reinforce some Fed officials’ inflation concerns, supporting the market consensus that the next rate cut, if any, is unlikely before September..... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1401; (P) 1.1448; (R1) 1.1491; More... Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. While another rise might be seen, strong resistance could emerge from 1.1572 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. On the downside, break of 1.1356 support will indicate that the corrective pattern from 1.1572 might have started the third leg, and target 1.1209 support for confirmation. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | JPY | Overall Household Spending Y/Y Apr | -0.10% | 1.50% | 2.10% | | 05:00 | JPY | Leading Economic Index Apr P | 103.4 | 104 | 104.1 | 108.1 | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Industrial Production M/M Apr | -1.40% | -0.90% | 3.00% | 2.30% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Apr | 14.6B | 20.2B | 21.1B | | 07:00 | CHF | Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) May | 704B | 703B | | 09:00 | EUR | GDP Q/Q Q1 F | 0.60% | 0.40% | 0.30% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Employment Change Q/Q Q1 F | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Apr | 0.10% | 0.20% | -0.10% | 0.40% | | 12:30 | CAD | Net Change in Employment May | 8.8K | -11.9K | 7.4K | | 12:30 | CAD | Unemployment Rate May | 7.00% | 7.00% | 6.90% | | 12:30 | USD | Nonfarm Payrolls May | 139K | 130K | 177K | 147K | | 12:30 | USD | Unemployment Rate May | 4.20% | 4.20% | 4.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Average Hourly Earnings M/M May | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
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