Dollar Rebounds as NFP and Wages Beat Forecasts, Tariff Impact Yet to Materialize

Action Insight Mid-Day 6-6-25

Dollar Rebounds as NFP and Wages Beat Forecasts, Tariff Impact Yet to Materialize

Dollar staged a firm comeback today following slightly better-than-expected non-farm payroll figures, with job growth at 139k and wage growth coming in strong at 0.4% mom. While not a blowout report, the data was enough to alleviate immediate concerns of a sharp labor market slowdown. Stock futures also advanced, suggesting that investors are reassessing the near-term risks from tariffs and focusing instead on the resilience in headline economic indicators.

Despite ongoing caution over the economic toll of US trade policy, particularly with the expiration of the 90-day tariff truce looming in July, the effects haven’t yet registered decisively in labor markets. In fact, the stronger-than-expected wage growth might reinforce some Fed officials’ inflation concerns, supporting the market consensus that the next rate cut, if any, is unlikely before September.....

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1401; (P) 1.1448; (R1) 1.1491; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. While another rise might be seen, strong resistance could emerge from 1.1572 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. On the downside, break of 1.1356 support will indicate that the corrective pattern from 1.1572 might have started the third leg, and target 1.1209 support for confirmation.

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Overall Household Spending Y/Y Apr -0.10% 1.50% 2.10%
05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index Apr P 103.4 104 104.1 108.1
06:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production M/M Apr -1.40% -0.90% 3.00% 2.30%
06:00 EUR Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Apr 14.6B 20.2B 21.1B
07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) May 704B 703B
09:00 EUR GDP Q/Q Q1 F 0.60% 0.40% 0.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Employment Change Q/Q Q1 F 0.20% 0.30% 0.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Apr 0.10% 0.20% -0.10% 0.40%
12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment May 8.8K -11.9K 7.4K
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate May 7.00% 7.00% 6.90%
12:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls May 139K 130K 177K 147K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate May 4.20% 4.20% 4.20%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M May 0.40% 0.30% 0.20%