Quiet Market With Trade Tensions Simmering, Japan's Tankan in Focus
| Action Insight Mid-Day 6-30-25 |
Quiet Market With Trade Tensions Simmering, Japan's Tankan in Focus |
Forex trading remains subdued and directionless, with most major pairs and crosses holding within Friday’s ranges. Traders appear to be in wait-and-see mode ahead of a packed US data schedule. The spotlight turns first to Tuesday’s ISM Manufacturing report, then to Thursday’s ISM Services and the highly anticipated non-farm payrolls. Until then, price action might continued to stay constrained within recent ranges. On the trade front, Japan’s negotiator Ryosei Akazawa returned from his seventh round of talks in Washington without securing a clear path forward. US President Trump said he may move ahead with a 25% tariff on Japanese autos, even as Tokyo had requested a review of the measure. Akazawa said he remains committed to reaching an agreement while safeguarding Japan’s economic interests. Yen leads performance today so far, but weak momentum suggests it's vulnerable to reverse. Swiss Franc and Kiwi also trade firmer. Sterling lags at the bottom, with Dollar and Aussie also soft. Euro and Canadian Dollar are trading in the middle of the board. Focus will soon shift to the BoJ’s quarterly Tankan survey, due in the Asian session. The report will offer the first full snapshot of business sentiment following the latest round of US trade measures. Economists expect a modest deterioration in confidence among both manufacturing and service firms, with particular concern about weakening export demand. Expectations for another BoJ rate hike this year have already faded in recent weeks. A weak Tankan report would reinforce this dovish repricing, especially as trade headwinds mount. ..... |
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.24; (P) 144.59; (R1) 145.01; More... Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral range trading continues inside 142.10/148.01. On the upside, firm break of 148.01 resistance will resume the rise from 139.87 to 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22. However, break of 142.10 will bring deeper fall back to retest 139.87 low. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
|---|
| 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M May P | 0.50% | 3.40% | -1.10% | | 01:00 | AUD | TD-MI Inflation Gauge M/M Jun | 0.10% | -0.40% | | 01:00 | NZD | ANZ Business Confidence Jun | 46.3 | 36.6 | | 01:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit M/M May | 0.50% | 0.70% | 0.70% | | 01:30 | CNY | NBS Manufacturing PMI Jun | 49.7 | 49.7 | 49.5 | | 01:30 | CNY | NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI Jun | 50.5 | 50.3 | 50.3 | | 05:00 | JPY | Housing Starts Y/Y May | -34.40% | -14.80% | -26.60% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Import Price Index M/M May | -0.70% | -0.30% | -1.70% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Retail Sales M/M May | -1.60% | 0.50% | -1.10% | | 06:00 | GBP | GDP Q/Q Q1 | 0.70% | 0.70% | 0.70% | | 06:00 | GBP | Current Account (GBP) Q1 | -23.5B | -19.7B | -21.0B | | 07:00 | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer Jun | 96.1 | 99.3 | 98.5 | 98.6 | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y May | 3.90% | 4.00% | 3.90% | | 08:30 | GBP | M4 Money Supply M/M May | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0% | | 08:30 | GBP | Mortgage Approvals May | 63K | 61K | 60K | | 12:00 | EUR | Germany CPI M/M Jun P | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.10% | | 12:00 | EUR | Germany CPI Y/Y Jun P | 2.00% | 2.10% | | 13:45 | USD | Chicago PMI Jun | 42.7 | 40.5 |
|
|
|
