Quiet Market With Trade Tensions Simmering, Japan's Tankan in Focus

Action Insight Mid-Day 6-30-25

Quiet Market With Trade Tensions Simmering, Japan's Tankan in Focus

Forex trading remains subdued and directionless, with most major pairs and crosses holding within Friday’s ranges. Traders appear to be in wait-and-see mode ahead of a packed US data schedule. The spotlight turns first to Tuesday’s ISM Manufacturing report, then to Thursday’s ISM Services and the highly anticipated non-farm payrolls. Until then, price action might continued to stay constrained within recent ranges.

On the trade front, Japan’s negotiator Ryosei Akazawa returned from his seventh round of talks in Washington without securing a clear path forward. US President Trump said he may move ahead with a 25% tariff on Japanese autos, even as Tokyo had requested a review of the measure. Akazawa said he remains committed to reaching an agreement while safeguarding Japan’s economic interests.

Yen leads performance today so far, but weak momentum suggests it's vulnerable to reverse. Swiss Franc and Kiwi also trade firmer. Sterling lags at the bottom, with Dollar and Aussie also soft. Euro and Canadian Dollar are trading in the middle of the board.

Focus will soon shift to the BoJ’s quarterly Tankan survey, due in the Asian session. The report will offer the first full snapshot of business sentiment following the latest round of US trade measures. Economists expect a modest deterioration in confidence among both manufacturing and service firms, with particular concern about weakening export demand.

Expectations for another BoJ rate hike this year have already faded in recent weeks. A weak Tankan report would reinforce this dovish repricing, especially as trade headwinds mount. .....

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USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.24; (P) 144.59; (R1) 145.01; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral range trading continues inside 142.10/148.01. On the upside, firm break of 148.01 resistance will resume the rise from 139.87 to 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22. However, break of 142.10 will bring deeper fall back to retest 139.87 low.

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M May P 0.50% 3.40% -1.10%
01:00 AUD TD-MI Inflation Gauge M/M Jun 0.10% -0.40%
01:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence Jun 46.3 36.6
01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M May 0.50% 0.70% 0.70%
01:30 CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI Jun 49.7 49.7 49.5
01:30 CNY NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI Jun 50.5 50.3 50.3
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y May -34.40% -14.80% -26.60%
06:00 EUR Germany Import Price Index M/M May -0.70% -0.30% -1.70%
06:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales M/M May -1.60% 0.50% -1.10%
06:00 GBP GDP Q/Q Q1 0.70% 0.70% 0.70%
06:00 GBP Current Account (GBP) Q1 -23.5B -19.7B -21.0B
07:00 CHF KOF Economic Barometer Jun 96.1 99.3 98.5 98.6
08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y May 3.90% 4.00% 3.90%
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M May 0.20% 0.20% 0%
08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals May 63K 61K 60K
12:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Jun P 0.00% 0.20% 0.10%
12:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Jun P 2.00% 2.10%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Jun 42.7 40.5