Risk Sentiment Sours on US GDP Contraction, Recession Fears Mount
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-30-25 |
Risk Sentiment Sours on US GDP Contraction, Recession Fears Mount |
Risk sentiment soured as US session commenced after data showed the economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter. Although the decline was heavily influenced by a surge in imports, which mechanically subtract from GDP calculations, the result still serves as a stark reminder that economic momentum was already faltering even before the full impact of President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs in April The weak GDP print has reignited recession fears, and a downturn may have already begun. This narrative is also supported by poor ADP employment report. Attention now turns squarely to Friday’s non-farm payroll data. A meaningful uptick in the unemployment rate or significant weakness in job creation would ring alarm bells for the administration, investors, and Fed alike. W In currency markets, the initial reaction has seen a mild shift toward Dollar, which is currently the strongest performer of the day, followed by the Loonie and Swiss Franc. On the other side, Yen, Sterling, and Kiwi are underperforming. However, these rankings remain fluid and may change quickly depending on how risk sentiment evolves in the coming sessions.... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1362; (P) 1.1394; (R1) 1.1418; More... EUR/USD is still bounded in tight range and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 1.1306 will extend the correction from 1.1572. But strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1572 at 1.1039 to contain downside. On the upside, break of 1.1572 will resume larger up trend. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Mar P | -1.10% | -0.70% | 2.30% | | 23:50 | JPY | Retail Trade Y/Y Mar | 3.10% | 3.60% | 1.40% | 1.30% | | 01:00 | NZD | ANZ Business Confidence Apr | 49.3 | 57.5 | | 01:30 | AUD | Monthly CPI Y/Y Mar | 2.40% | 2.40% | | 01:30 | AUD | CPI Q/Q Q1 | 0.90% | 0.80% | 0.20% | | 01:30 | AUD | CPI Y/Y Q1 | 2.40% | 2.20% | 2.40% | | 01:30 | AUD | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q Q1 | 0.70% | 0.60% | 0.50% | | 01:30 | AUD | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y Q1 | 2.90% | 2.90% | 3.20% | 3.30% | | 01:30 | CNY | NBS Manufacturing PMI Apr | 49 | 49.9 | 50.5 | | 01:30 | CNY | NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI Apr | 50.4 | 50.7 | 50.8 | | 01:45 | CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI Apr | 50.4 | 49.9 | 51.2 | | 05:00 | JPY | Housing Starts Y/Y Mar | 39.10% | 1.00% | 2.40% | | 05:30 | EUR | France GDP Q/Q Q1 P | 0.10% | 0.10% | -0.10% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Import Price Index M/M Mar | -1.00% | -0.70% | 0.30% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Retail Sales M/M Mar | -0.20% | -0.40% | 0.80% | | 07:00 | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer Apr | 97.1 | 102 | 103.9 | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Change Mar | 4K | 15K | 26K | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Rate Mar | 6.30% | 6.30% | 6.30% | | 08:00 | EUR | Germany GDP Q/Q Q1 P | 0.20% | 0.20% | -0.20% | | 08:00 | CHF | UBS Economic Expectations Apr | -51.6 | -10.7 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 P | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 12:00 | EUR | Germany CPI M/M Apr P | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 12:00 | EUR | Germany CPI Y/Y Apr P | 2.10% | 2.20% | | 12:15 | USD | ADP Employment Change Apr | 62K | 130K | 155K | 147K | | 12:30 | CAD | GDP M/M Feb | -0.20% | 0.00% | 0.40% | | 12:30 | USD | GDP Annualized Q1 P | -0.30% | 0.40% | 2.40% | | 12:30 | USD | GDP Price Index Q1 P | 3.70% | 3.10% | 2.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Employment Cost Index Q1 | 0.90% | 0.90% | 0.90% | | 13:45 | USD | Chicago PMI Apr | 45.9 | 47.6 | | 14:00 | USD | Personal Income M/M Mar | 0.40% | 0.80% | | 14:00 | USD | Personal Spending Mar | 0.60% | 0.40% | | 14:00 | USD | PCE Price Index M/M Mar | 0% | 0.30% | | 14:00 | USD | PCE Price Index Y/Y Mar | 2.20% | 2.50% | | 14:00 | USD | Core PCE Price Index M/M Mar | 0.10% | 0.40% | | 14:00 | USD | Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Mar | 2.60% | 2.80% | | 14:00 | USD | Pending Home Sales M/M Mar | -0.30% | 2% | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -0.6M | 0.2M |
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