Risk Sentiment Sours on US GDP Contraction, Recession Fears Mount

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-30-25

Risk Sentiment Sours on US GDP Contraction, Recession Fears Mount

Risk sentiment soured as US session commenced after data showed the economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter. Although the decline was heavily influenced by a surge in imports, which mechanically subtract from GDP calculations, the result still serves as a stark reminder that economic momentum was already faltering even before the full impact of President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs in April

The weak GDP print has reignited recession fears, and a downturn may have already begun. This narrative is also supported by poor ADP employment report. Attention now turns squarely to Friday’s non-farm payroll data. A meaningful uptick in the unemployment rate or significant weakness in job creation would ring alarm bells for the administration, investors, and Fed alike. W

In currency markets, the initial reaction has seen a mild shift toward Dollar, which is currently the strongest performer of the day, followed by the Loonie and Swiss Franc. On the other side, Yen, Sterling, and Kiwi are underperforming. However, these rankings remain fluid and may change quickly depending on how risk sentiment evolves in the coming sessions....

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1362; (P) 1.1394; (R1) 1.1418; More...

EUR/USD is still bounded in tight range and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 1.1306 will extend the correction from 1.1572. But strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1572 at 1.1039 to contain downside. On the upside, break of 1.1572 will resume larger up trend.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Mar P -1.10% -0.70% 2.30%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Mar 3.10% 3.60% 1.40% 1.30%
01:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence Apr 49.3 57.5
01:30 AUD Monthly CPI Y/Y Mar 2.40% 2.40%
01:30 AUD CPI Q/Q Q1 0.90% 0.80% 0.20%
01:30 AUD CPI Y/Y Q1 2.40% 2.20% 2.40%
01:30 AUD RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q Q1 0.70% 0.60% 0.50%
01:30 AUD RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y Q1 2.90% 2.90% 3.20% 3.30%
01:30 CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI Apr 49 49.9 50.5
01:30 CNY NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI Apr 50.4 50.7 50.8
01:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Apr 50.4 49.9 51.2
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Mar 39.10% 1.00% 2.40%
05:30 EUR France GDP Q/Q Q1 P 0.10% 0.10% -0.10%
06:00 EUR Germany Import Price Index M/M Mar -1.00% -0.70% 0.30%
06:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales M/M Mar -0.20% -0.40% 0.80%
07:00 CHF KOF Economic Barometer Apr 97.1 102 103.9
07:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Change Mar 4K 15K 26K
07:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate Mar 6.30% 6.30% 6.30%
08:00 EUR Germany GDP Q/Q Q1 P 0.20% 0.20% -0.20%
08:00 CHF UBS Economic Expectations Apr -51.6 -10.7
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 P 0.40% 0.20% 0.20%
12:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Apr P 0.40% 0.30% 0.30%
12:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Apr P 2.10% 2.20%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Apr 62K 130K 155K 147K
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Feb -0.20% 0.00% 0.40%
12:30 USD GDP Annualized Q1 P -0.30% 0.40% 2.40%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q1 P 3.70% 3.10% 2.30%
12:30 USD Employment Cost Index Q1 0.90% 0.90% 0.90%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Apr 45.9 47.6
14:00 USD Personal Income M/M Mar 0.40% 0.80%
14:00 USD Personal Spending Mar 0.60% 0.40%
14:00 USD PCE Price Index M/M Mar 0% 0.30%
14:00 USD PCE Price Index Y/Y Mar 2.20% 2.50%
14:00 USD Core PCE Price Index M/M Mar 0.10% 0.40%
14:00 USD Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Mar 2.60% 2.80%
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Mar -0.30% 2%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.6M 0.2M