Markets Sluggish Despite Data Surprises, Caution Prevails Ahead of Tariff Unveil
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-28-25 |
Markets Sluggish Despite Data Surprises, Caution Prevails Ahead of Tariff Unveil |
The forex markets are ending the week in a sluggish and indecisive mood, despite a flurry of notable economic data releases. The highlight was the hotter-than-expected US core PCE inflation, which firmed expectations that Fed will hold rates steady in May, with market pricing now around 90% chance. However, expectations for a June rate cut remain relatively resilient at around 65%. Yet, Dollar showed little appetite to capitalize on the data. It briefly lost ground against Euro and Sterling earlier in the session but quickly settled back into tight ranges. Similarly, stronger-than-expected Canadian GDP data failed to meaningfully support Loonie, which remains on the softer side for the day. Sterling, too, couldn’t hold onto gains despite upbeat retail sales figures, suggesting broader market hesitancy. The overall restrained price action suggests that traders are simply not ready to make big moves ahead of next week's "reciprocal tariff" announcement from the US.... |
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2883; (P) 1.2937; (R1) 1.3004; More... GBP/USD is still bounded in range below 1.3013 and intraday bias remains neutral. Consolidation from 1.3013 could extend. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.2248 to 1.3013 at 1.2721 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3013 will resume the rally from 1.2099 towards 1.3433 high. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Y/Y Mar | 2.90% | 2.90% | 2.80% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Mar | 2.40% | 2.20% | 2.20% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Core-Core Y/Y Mar | 2.20% | 1.90% | | 23:50 | JPY | BoJ Summary of Opinions | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Apr | -24.5 | -22.2 | -24.7 | -24.6 | | 07:00 | GBP | Retail Sales M/M Feb | 1.00% | -0.30% | 1.70% | | 07:00 | GBP | Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Jan | -17.8B | -16.8B | -17.4B | -12.5B | | 07:00 | GBP | GDP Q/Q Q4 F | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | | 07:00 | GBP | Current Account (GBP) Q4 | -21.0B | -16.7B | -18.1B | | 08:00 | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer Mar | 103.9 | 102.6 | 101.7 | 102.6 | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Change Feb | 26K | 10K | 5K | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Rate Feb | 6.30% | 6.20% | 6.20% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator Mar | 95.2 | 97 | 96.3 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Confidence Mar | -10.6 | -10.5 | -11.4 | -11 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services Sentiment Mar | 2.4 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 5.1 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar F | -14.5 | -14.5 | -14.5 | | 12:30 | CAD | GDP M/M Jan | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Income Feb | 0.80% | 0.40% | 0.90% | 0.70% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Spending Feb | 0.40% | 0.50% | -0.20% | -0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index M/M Feb | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index Y/Y Feb | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.50% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index M/M Feb | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Feb | 2.80% | 2.70% | 2.60% | 2.70% | | 14:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Mar F | 57.9 | 57.9 |
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