Markets Sluggish Despite Data Surprises, Caution Prevails Ahead of Tariff Unveil

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-28-25

Markets Sluggish Despite Data Surprises, Caution Prevails Ahead of Tariff Unveil

The forex markets are ending the week in a sluggish and indecisive mood, despite a flurry of notable economic data releases. The highlight was the hotter-than-expected US core PCE inflation, which firmed expectations that Fed will hold rates steady in May, with market pricing now around 90% chance. However, expectations for a June rate cut remain relatively resilient at around 65%.

Yet, Dollar showed little appetite to capitalize on the data. It briefly lost ground against Euro and Sterling earlier in the session but quickly settled back into tight ranges. Similarly, stronger-than-expected Canadian GDP data failed to meaningfully support Loonie, which remains on the softer side for the day. Sterling, too, couldn’t hold onto gains despite upbeat retail sales figures, suggesting broader market hesitancy.

The overall restrained price action suggests that traders are simply not ready to make big moves ahead of next week's "reciprocal tariff" announcement from the US....

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2883; (P) 1.2937; (R1) 1.3004; More...

GBP/USD is still bounded in range below 1.3013 and intraday bias remains neutral. Consolidation from 1.3013 could extend. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.2248 to 1.3013 at 1.2721 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3013 will resume the rally from 1.2099 towards 1.3433 high.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis
In-depth Reports
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European Central Bank Easing to Slow as Eurozone Outlook Brightens
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Global FX: A Sudden and Decisive Change in Sentiment
Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y Mar 2.90% 2.90% 2.80%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Mar 2.40% 2.20% 2.20%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core-Core Y/Y Mar 2.20% 1.90%
23:50 JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
07:00 EUR Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Apr -24.5 -22.2 -24.7 -24.6
07:00 GBP Retail Sales M/M Feb 1.00% -0.30% 1.70%
07:00 GBP Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Jan -17.8B -16.8B -17.4B -12.5B
07:00 GBP GDP Q/Q Q4 F 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
07:00 GBP Current Account (GBP) Q4 -21.0B -16.7B -18.1B
08:00 CHF KOF Economic Barometer Mar 103.9 102.6 101.7 102.6
08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Change Feb 26K 10K 5K
08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate Feb 6.30% 6.20% 6.20%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator Mar 95.2 97 96.3
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Mar -10.6 -10.5 -11.4 -11
10:00 EUR Eurozone Services Sentiment Mar 2.4 6.8 6.2 5.1
10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar F -14.5 -14.5 -14.5
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Jan 0.40% 0.30% 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD Personal Income Feb 0.80% 0.40% 0.90% 0.70%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Feb 0.40% 0.50% -0.20% -0.30%
12:30 USD PCE Price Index M/M Feb 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
12:30 USD PCE Price Index Y/Y Feb 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index M/M Feb 0.40% 0.30% 0.30%
12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Feb 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.70%
14:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Mar F 57.9 57.9