Would You Elect a Grizzly Bear-Fighting Candidate?

Fast Facts

1. Trump the Anchor

When asked for the big national picture, one Republican I spoke to this week replied, simply, “bad.” The coronavirus pandemic, a stumbling economy and a president with approval ratings in the high 30s will do that to the GOP. Political honchos are advising Senate Republicans to put a little distance between themselves and Trump — who trails in many of the states they need in order to cling to the majority.

2. Filibuster Proof?

Democrats, meanwhile, have dreams of 2008 — when a blue wave came with an economic crash and gave them, briefly, a filibuster-proof 60-vote majority. Could 60 actually happen this time? Almost certainly not, as Dems would have to sweep every state even remotely on the board, including South Carolina and Alaska (more on them later). You can engineer your own favorite scenario here, whether it’s realistic or not.

3. SCOTUS Comeback

Liberals got lumps in their throats Tuesday with the news that Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg had been hospitalized with a possible infection. If there’s a vacancy on the high court — though the end of the term came and went without any immediate retirements — Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell would do his damnedest to fill it by Election Day (putting aside his blockade of Obama’s 2016 pick). A high court battle would do wonders to juice a virus-depressed Republican base, though it could have the equal and opposite effect: One of the most imperiled GOP senators, Maine’s Susan Collins, has been dragged down by her vote to confirm controversial Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

We first told you about South Carolina’s Jaime Harrison back in 2017, when he was a Democratic National Committee official. The rest of the country heard his name loud and clear when he raised a staggering $13.9 million from April through June — a record-smashing signal that Sen. Lindsey Graham has joined the ranks of premier lightning rods of the left. (Liberal groups like American Bridge use Graham for fundraising appeals too.) Harrison’s haul was just one example of the huge cash advantage Democratic challengers are banking across the country.

5. White Out

The Senate moves slowly on diversity (among many, many other things), but amid nationwide racial justice protests, this year will produce at least an incrementally less-white chamber. Latino Democrat Ben Ray Luján is a massive favorite to take over for a retiring white senator in New Mexico. Indian American Manny Sethi is in a close race for the Republican nomination to replace a retiring white senator in Tennessee. Black Democrats Harrison and Raphael Warnock in Georgia and Black Republican John James in Michigan are underdogs in their races — but could spring surprises.

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1. The Latest

Tuesday saw three Senate primaries up for grabs: Democrat Sara Gideon, a battle-tested state House Speaker, will move on to face Collins in Maine. Former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville took out former senator and Attorney General Jeff Sessions — much to Trump’s delight — in Alabama. Unless he fumbles at the goal line, Tuberville is expected to defeat Democratic Sen. Doug Jones. Meanwhile, Texas Democrat Mary Jennings “MJ” Hegar, an Air Force pilot who served in Afghanistan, advanced to face Sen. John Cornyn, the second-ranking Republican in the chamber.

2. North Carolina

If I could only know the outcome of only one race to figure out which party controls the chamber, I’d take North Carolina. (Say Republicans win Alabama, while the Dems take Maine, Colorado and Arizona, the next domino to get Democrats to 50 is North Carolina.) Only once in the past 20 years (2008) has the Tar Heel state elected a Democratic president or U.S. senator. But GOP Sen. Thom Tillis, who’s had an uneasy time with Trump, has a fight on his hands against Army veteran ex-state senator and fundraising machine Cal Cunningham.

The two-for-the-price-of-one state has a pair of Republican senators fighting for their jobs. Sen. David Perdue, a former CEO of Dollar General, has become one of the closest Trump allies but is now trying to broaden his appeal against 33-year-old investigative journalist Jon Ossoff. But Perdue’s bid is being dragged down by the civil war in the other race, where Sen. Kelly Loeffler is facing Republican Rep. Doug Collins (pictured) and Democrats Warnock (pastor at Atlanta’s famed Ebenezer Baptist Church) and Matt Lieberman (son of former senator Joe) in a “jungle primary” — where the top two November finishers meet in a January runoff. Loeffler, appointed to the seat by Gov. Brian Kemp over Trump’s objections, has tried to run as far right as possible — getting in a tiff with the WNBA (she owns the Atlanta franchise) over its embrace of Black Lives Matter. Loeffler also drew controversy for her stock trades before the coronavirus crash (the FBI dropped an insider trading investigation). Collins, Trump’s original preference for the seat, is polling ahead of her, raising questions in Georgia Republican circles about whether it’s time to cut Loeffler loose for the good of the party as the race can only get nastier from here. A Trump endorsement tweet could loom.

4. Alaska

When the biographical ad says the candidate once “killed a grizzly bear in self-defense after it snuck up on him,” there’s only one state we could be talking about. Health care consultant and commercial fisherman Al Gross, who’s running as an independent but with the support of national Democrats, is aiming to pull off a stunner in the Last Frontier by exploiting Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan’s embrace of Trump. Alaska has sprung surprises before (notably electing a Democrat in 2008) and this race is starting to draw notice in Washington — as far-fetched as it may seem.

5. Michigan

From a virus vaccine and economic turnaround to some other wild event we haven’t dreamed of — hey, 2020’s been nuts — this electoral climate could well shift. And if Republicans gain some momentum, John James, the 39-year-old former Army chopper pilot in Iraq, is ready, after outperforming his fellow Michigan Republicans in a 2018 Senate loss. James spins a compelling tale as the great-great-grandson of a Mississippi slave, and would quickly draw presidential buzz if he pulls off this victory.

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1. Adios, Filibuster

If the Democrats take the Senate, the House and the presidency, the longtime rule that requires 60 votes to cut off debate to a bill won’t last long. Hyperpartisanship has led party leaders to chip away at it for some time (it no longer applies to nominations) and it won’t survive the first big legislative battle, likely an economic relief bill that Biden says will go big on attacking climate change. Republicans will somehow remember they don’t like deficits and line up to block it, and Democrats will act very solemn and heartbroken that it’s come to this when they press the “nuclear option” to change the rules so any bill can pass with 51 votes.

The issue has fallen off the radar for now, but there’s a strong chance we’ll see another horrific mass shooting next year — and momentum for gun restrictions. An all-Democratic Washington would likely start by banning assault weapons and large-capacity magazines. A confiscation scheme as proposed during the Democratic presidential race by Beto O’Rourke is unlikely — but a new Democtratic Senate majority would be more urban, and thus less gun-friendly, than those of yore.

3. Fruits of Labor

Get ready to learn a lot more about the PRO Act: Currently stalling in the GOP Senate, the bill would expand collective bargaining protections for millions of Americans by giving gig workers at companies like Uber and DoorDash the ability to organize, while weakening right-to-work laws that curb unions in many red states. This may be a new era of politics, but the old rules still apply when it comes to Democrats hugging organized labor.

It would need a serious rebranding to pass, and would cause a political fight unlike any other, but a Democratic takeover of Washington in the wake of nationwide racial justice protests would put reparations firmly on the federal radar. Surely they could pass a long-stalled bill to study the issue and see where it goes.

1. J.B. Poersch

The head of the Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC boasts one of the biggest bankrolls in the land devoted to Senate races, having raised $118 million this cycle. Poersch’s decisions will show where party leaders (Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer helps guide the super PAC) think they have an opportunity. The upstate New York native and longtime Senate campaign hand is plunking down money on TV ads in states like Montana — an-under-the-radar race where Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, who’s taking on Republican Sen. Steve Daines, has won plaudits for his handling of the pandemic.

2. Julie Conway

She has longtime ties to GOP Sen. Martha McSally in one of the biggest races in the country, but Conway’s thinking bigger than Arizona: As executive director of VIEW PAC, Conway raises money and provides support to Republican women across the country to try to swell their numbers in D.C. And this year sees four female GOP senators — McSally, Collins, Loeffler and Iowa’s Joni Ernst — fighting for their futures.

Any comeback for Democratic senators in the South starts with Black voters, and this Alabama native is reaching beyond well-trodden avenues to court them in rural areas. If there’s an election night shocker in Texas, Alabama or South Carolina, it’ll be on the backs of the people she’s after. Her real goal in all this? Power.