| | | | Monday, November 14, 2022 | | In case you missed it last night, there's a lot you need to catch up on from Sunday. I wrote about Cooper Kupp's injury here and the rest of the injuries from around the league here, and you can find my early thoughts on the top waiver-wire targets for Week 11 here. | | Of course, we're going to be waiting on news on Kupp and the rest of the injuries throughout the day, so you'll want to make sure you tune in to CBS Sports HQ at Noon for Fantasy Football Today, where Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, and the rest of the crew will have all the latest for you as it breaks. Tomorrow's newsletter will surely have plenty of updates too, along with, of course, your first look at the Week 11 rankings plus Jamey's top waiver-wire targets for next week, so keep an eye out for that. | | Until then, you can shoot me an email at [email protected] for any questions you might have with "#AskFFT" as the subject line to get some help -- I'll be looking to answer trade questions in Wednesday's newsletter! In today's newsletter, I've got my Week 10 recap ready for you, with my thoughts on every game on the schedule so far: | | | | Week 10 Recap | | | Buccaneers 21-Seahawks 16
| Injuries: Leonard Fournette (hip) -- Fournette suffered the injury toward the end of the third quarter and didn't play in the fourth. The Bucs are on a bye next week, so he's got an extra week to recover, thankfully. Winner: Rachaad White. However, if Fournette isn't able to get back by Week 12, White could be a must-start Fantasy option. He was already more or less working in an even split with Fournette before the injury -- White actually had a slight lead in snaps, 32 to 21, through the first three quarters. The Buccaneers offense with Tom Brady has historically been a pretty great place for running backs in Fantasy, as you surely know. Either way, he's one of the top waiver-wire targets this week, and there might be less competition for him heading into the bye than there otherwise would be. If you don't need the help this week, make sure you put in a bid on White.
Loser: Cade Otton. Coming off his five-catch, 68-yard breakout in Week 9, Otton's usage Sunday was a disappointment. He ran a route on just nine of 30 dropbacks with Cameron Brate back from his neck injury, so he's not the guy we were hoping he would be. Yet. He might become it eventually, but his usage Sunday is that of a streaming-only option. One more thing: Kenneth Walker was finally bottled up on the ground, rushing for just 17 yards on 10 carries. However, he made up for that with his best game as a pass-catcher, hauling in six of eight passes for 55 yards. 13.2 PPR points isn't a massive game, but it shows that he still has a high floor even if the running game isn't clicking. That's what you need from an RB1, and that's what Walker is. | | | | Vikings 33-Bills 30 | | Winner: Devin Singletary. Singletary played 51 of 72 snaps, with James Cook logging 13 and Nyheim Hines coming in for just five. I figured Hines' role would grow as he got more comfortable with the system, but that's not what we saw Sunday. With the game close, Singletary was still the team's go-to back, which bodes well for his chances moving forward. If he didn't find the end zone (twice!) it would have been a pretty ho-hum day -- 13 carries for 47 yards and one catch for 0 yards on two targets -- so you certainly can't view him as a must-start option moving forward. But Singletary still has a solid role, and I wasn't sure that would be the case at this point. Loser: Josh Allen. It's fair to grade Allen on a curve given the elbow injury that rendered him a true game-time decision, but it's still worth noting his red zone struggles -- four interceptions over the past two games. Of course, he had 11 touchdowns to just one interception in the red zone prior to the past two games, so I don't think there's much to worry about, though I do think the Bills could use another receiver besides Stefon Diggs who can consistently get open in the short area of the field. That's one place Gabe Davis has disappointed. One more thing: Justin Jefferson put on a show for the ages Sunday. It wasn't his best Fantasy game of the season -- that was Week 1 -- but 10 catches, 193 yards, and a touchdown would be the best game for just about any other receiver in the league. But it was the degree of difficulty that really made Jefferson's performance stand out -- his first touchdown was a pretty tough contested catch, but it was his one-handed effort on a key fourth and 18 that will stand out as one of the best individual efforts I've ever seen an NFL player come up with. He's just impossibly good. | | | | Lions 31-Bears 30 | | Injuries: Khalil Herbert (hip) -- Herbert left the game on the Bears final drive, so it's hard to say whether he would have been able to return. If Herbert misses time moving forward, I would expect David Montgomery to see upwards of 80% of the team's snaps. Winner: Justin Fields . Entering Sunday, the record for combined rushing yards by a quarterback in consecutive games was 281; Fields blew past that, adding 147 to his 178 from last week to push that record to 325. And, of course, two more touchdowns, including another 60-plus yarder, his second in as many weeks. I've been saying Fields has as much rushing upside as any QB not named Lamar Jackson, but that might be underselling him. The way he's playing right now, Fields might just be the best running QB in the league, and that makes him a must-start Fantasy QB. Loser: Chase Claypool. Claypool's usage did not increase in his second week in the Bears offense, as he sported a snap share of just 28% -- and ran a route on just 27% of their pass plays. This is a reminder that joining a team mid-season as a receiver is especially difficult, and you probably need to see Claypool emerge as a productive, full-time part of this offense before you can trust him. One more thing: D'Andre Swift wasn't on the injury report for this week's game, but he still played a very limited role, with just a 31% snap share. He found the end zone, which ultimately made it worth starting him, but six carries and three targets are not going to get it done. It's not unreasonable to think his usage could continue to increase, but I'm still going to rank him as a touchdown-or-bust RB3 for next week. | | Chiefs 27-Jaguars 17 | Injuries: JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) -- Smith-Schuster took a big hit in the first half and was on the field for a while before being helped off. It was a scary scene, and Smith-Schuster has now had four concussions in the NFL -- his last coming in 2019, which cost him a week. There's a chance this one keeps him out. Winner: Kadarius Toney. Toney caught four of five passes thrown his way for 57 yards, including a schemed touchdown that got him wide open after coming across the formation in motion. That's the kind of opportunity you can get in this offense if you can get on the field. Now, even with Mecole Hardman and Smith-Schuster out, Toney was still the clear No. 3 WR for the Chiefs, but he's taking advantage of his opportunities and there's room to grow. I'm not sure I'd be ready to trust him in Week 11, but I think he absolutely needs to be rostered everywhere now.
Loser: Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I didn't see anything about an injury for CEH, but he played just four snaps in this one as the Chiefs consolidated their backfield. Isiah Pacheco handled the bulk of the early-down work while Jerick McKinnon was the primary passing downs option, and if this is going to be a two-way split moving forward, both Pacheco and McKinnon could be useful for Fantasy. As for Edwards-Helaire? He's droppable, officially. One more thing: We saw what the negative game script looks like for Travis Etienne, and he was still decent for Fantasy -- 10.3 PPR points without a touchdown isn't so bad. He's still not the guy we hoped he would be as a pass-catcher, which does make it tougher to trust him when the Jaguars are big underdogs. On the other hand, Etienne ran a route on 58% of dropbacks, so there's still some room for him to grow as a pass-catcher. | | Dolphins 39-Browns 17 | Winner: Jeff Wilson. This is still a timeshare, but Wilson seems like the clear lead back. He got up to a 60% snap share, out-snapping Raheem Mostert 40 to 19. Both backs found the end zone, and this offense might have enough room for both to be useful Fantasy options, but if you have to pick between the two, Wilson seems like the obvious choice. He probably won't get 17 carries and five targets every week, but it's fair to think he could get 65% of the RB touches moving forward. That should make him an RB2.
Loser: Kareem Hunt. Last season, Hunt had a target or a carry on 44% of his snaps in four of five games alongside Nick Chubb before injuries effectively ended his season. After six carries and one target on 21 snaps Sunday, he's had just four games out of eight with a target or carry on more than 40% of his snaps. The Browns just aren't making him a priority, mostly because Jacoby Brissett just isn't throwing to his running backs much at all (15.6% target share for RBs so far). The problem for Hunt is, Deshaun Watson has only thrown 14.4% of his passes to running backs. Things probably aren't going to get much better for him, and at this point, he's just a desperation start and handcuff for Nick Chubb. One more thing: Tua Tagovailoa didn't have Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle go wild in this one, and he still torched the Browns. Sure, this has been a pretty bad defense all season, but 285 yards on 32 attempts with three touchdowns is pretty impressive even without knowing Hill and Waddle combined for just 110 yards. You'll have to find another QB with the Dolphins on a bye in Week 11, but that's probably the last time you'll be benching Tagovailoa. | | Giants 24-Texans 16 | Winner: Nico Collins. There really aren't a lot of great options here, but Collins came back from a multi-week absence due to a groin injury and commanded a 27% target share. Five catches for 49 yards and a touchdown isn't a huge game given that target share, but you'll take it. He should be rostered in way more than 28% of leagues.
Loser: Wan'Dale Robinson. Robinson led the Giants receivers in routes run for the first time, but in a low-volume passing game, he had just two targets. We won't hold the low volume against him, but there's no denying his production since becoming more or less an every-down player has been disappointing -- he has 10 catches for 85 yards over his past three games. Robinson has a decent (but not great, in this offense) opportunity, but he's not doing enough with it. I'd drop him for Collins, for one. One more thing: Brandin Cooks was back from his exile or hiatus or whatever you want to call it, but he didn't return to his former position of prominence. He was third among the team's WR in routes run with 26, 63% of the team's pass plays. Cooks hasn't been nearly as good as he was last season, and if he isn't going to be even close to an every-snap player, he's probably droppable. | | Steelers 20-Saints 10 | Winner: Pat Freiermuth. There really weren't a lot of winners in this one -- it was nice to see George Pickens get used multiple times as a runner, resulting in a touchdown and helping make up for a middling day in the passing game -- but Freiermuth's usage was legitimately promising, even if the production wasn't. I mean, 7-4-36 with no touchdowns is still, somehow, good for TE14 this week, but you know what I mean. Freiermuth led the team with his seven targets and ran a route on 35 of 40 dropbacks. He's going to be a solid starting TE the rest of the way.
Loser: The Saints offense. I'll admit to a bias here -- I think Jameis Winston is better than Andy Dalton. Or, at the very least, I think he's a better choice for an offense that needs more from its quarterback than to get the ball out in rhythm and let the playmakers do the work. Though it's worth noting, Dalton didn't even really do that part of the job this week, as Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave combined for just nine of 28 targets. That just isn't good enough, and neither is Dalton. We'll see if they agree. One more thing: All that talk about Jaylen Warren coming for Harris' job? Well, it turns out it was a bit overstated -- though it's worth noting that Mike Tomlin never actually said anything about Warren overtaking Harris. And he didn't. It helped Harris' cause that he had his best game of the season, rushing for 99 yards on 20 carries. That being said, Warren did start the team's third drive and played 43% of the snaps in the end, his second-highest mark of the season after the 51% share he had in the 38-3 blowout loss to the Bills. The fact that the Steelers nursed a rare lead and played a whopping 79 offensive snaps helped cover up what Harris lost, but Warren drew even with Harris in routes run at 14 and was targeted three times to Harris' one. This might be timeshare, with Harris in the lead but Warren playing a significant role, and given how bad this offense has been, that probably leaves both on the outside looking in of the RB2 discussion. | | Titans 17-Broncos 10 | Injuries: Jerry Jeudy (ankle) -- It sounds like Jeudy avoided a worst-case scenario injury, but that doesn't mean he's going to be back in Week 11. Because the worst-case scenario involved fears about an Achilles injury, so even a four-week trip to IR would still count as "good news," given the alternative. We'll know more tomorrow, hopefully. Winner: Courtland Sutton. Sutton has four games with double-digit targets, and three of them have come with Jeudy either leaving with or limited by injuries. If Jeudy is out for multiple weeks, Sutton will be worth starting, even in what sure seems like a bad offense.
Loser: Russell Wilson . I was willing to give Wilson the benefit of the doubt that they could sort some things out during the bye, but they did no such thing. Given the matchup -- against a very beat up Titans defense -- this might have actually been the Broncos most disheartening performance of the season. Wilson just isn't the guy he used to be, and the offense around him isn't good enough to make up for that. It's hard to argue he's even a matchup-based play after he scored just 16.24 points against this Titans team. One more thing: I don't think we need to make much of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine's big game Sunday -- he led the team in targets, catches, and yards, but 63 of them (and one of his touchdowns) came on a flea-flicker where he got wide open. I do think it was very promising to see Treylon Burks get six targets while playing 76% of the pass plays in his first game back from IR, and he's the only part of this passing game who needs to be rostered in most 12-team leagues. | | Colts 25-Raiders 20 | Winner: Jonathan Taylor. We got an awful lot of questions this week about whether you should trade Taylor, and I sincerely hope you listened to me when I said it was the wrong time to try trading Taylor. Did I see him having his best game of the season in Jeff Saturday's first game as head coach? Absolutely not! But this kind of performance is always in Taylor's range of outcomes, and the fact that he was able to outrun the defense for a 66-yard touchdown is a pretty good sign that his ankle is fine. He's an RB1 moving forward.
Loser: Alec Pierce/Mack Hollins. You could make an optimistic case for why both would be in line for good performances Sunday. In Pierce's case, the return of Matt Ryan figured to get the offense tilted back toward passing; for Hollins, the absence of Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow gave him a chance to be the No. 2 option. At least in Hollins' case, that more or less happened -- his six targets were third on the team behind Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs . The problem is, he caught just two of six -- which was better than Pierce's zero catches on two targets. There's some talent here with both -- more with Pierce, arguably -- but neither offense seems like the kind where you need exposure to tertiary pieces. One more thing: Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell both got nine targets in Ryan's first game back, and both should be in the starting discussion moving forward. Pittman probably isn't the fringe WR1 you hoped he would be, but he'll be in the WR2 discussion with Ryan at QB; Campbell is a viable PPR starter with 31 targets in his past three games with Ryan. He's the go-to short-area target when they want to get the ball out of Ryan's hands. | | Packers 31-Cowboys 28 | Winner: Christian Watson . Watson had the kind of game that makes you wonder what he could have been capable of if not for injuries. He caught four of eight passes for 107 yards and three touchdowns, showing the combination of size and speed that nobody else on this offense can touch. What might have made it even more impressive is that Watson had a couple of bad drops early on but never really lost snaps or targets. I don't necessarily think you can expect him to be the Packers' No. 1 option moving forward, but he's probably the most talented receiver on the roster, and this breakout showing makes him a must-add player on waivers.
Loser: A.J. Dillon. Dillon had a fine day, rushing for 65 yards on 13 carries in a run-heavy script, but his passing game role has completely disappeared. The Packers only dropped back to pass 23 times in a game that went to overtime, so there weren't a lot of opportunities here, but even in that context, his five routes run was a shockingly low total. He has just two games in his past six with multiple targets, and at this point is just a desperation start as long as Aaron Jones is healthy. One more thing: In light of Pollard playing 68 of 79 offensive snaps, it's pretty funny that Cowboys coach Skip Peete told reporters last week he wants to keep Pollard in the 30-snap range even without Ezekiel Elliott. It's easy to say that when you're beating the Bears by 20 at home; I guess it's a bit tougher when you're in a close game in Lambeau Field. Pollard is a must-start player as long as Elliott's knee injury keeps him out. We wouldn't mind if he took another week or two to get to 100%. | | Cardinals 27-Rams 17 | Injuries: Cooper Kupp (ankle) -- It sounds like Kupp avoided a worst-case scenario, but given the somber mood after his injury, that doesn't necessarily mean this is a non-issue moving forward. Kupp may not be done for the season, but it wouldn't be a surprise if we find out in the next day or two that he has to miss a few weeks ... Zach Ertz (knee) -- Ertz had to be carted off the field Sunday, and was spotted in a brace after the game. Per Adam Schefter, Ertz is likely to miss multiple weeks with the injury, though the team believes he didn't suffer a torn ACL. Rookie Trey McBride has some upside but caught just one pass on one target in Ertz's absence, so he'll need to prove himself before you look his way in most shallow leagues. Winner: Rondale Moore. No Kyler Murray , no problem for Moore, who racked up another double-digit target game, his third in the past six -- he has eight in two of the other three. He actually had a team-high 110 air yards in this one, nearly double his previous career-high of 58. The four highest air yard totals of Moore's career have come in the past seven games, and this is an altogether much more valuable role than the one he had last season. I'm viewing Moore as a top-24 WR in PPR scoring moving forward at this point.
Loser: The Rams offense. With Kupp out, there might not be a single starting-caliber Fantasy option on this offense. If there is one, Tyler Higbee is probably the only candidate, and he wouldn't be if he wasn't a TE. Yes, John Wolford was at QB this week, but the primary issue with this team has been a lack of playmakers, and Stafford wasn't overcoming that either. I don't expect Allen Robinson to step up much in Kupp's absence. One more thing: James Conner played 62 of 65 snaps, a pretty good sign that he's past the rib injury that cost him multiple weeks. He found the end zone a couple of times in this one, and if he's going to play 90% of the snaps as he did down the stretch last season, this won't be the last multi-touchdown game from him. Conner played 77% or more of the snaps in each game of a five-game stretch last season and averaged 25.8 PPR points per game. He still has top-12 upside. | | 49ers 22-Chargers 16 | Winner: There really isn't a great choice here in this game, which is weird, because there were pretty good performances. But DeAndre Carter was the only player on the Chargers to top 13.5 PPR points, while Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk were the only two to manage it for the 49ers. The Chargers really, really need Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back, for Justin Herbert's sake.
Loser: Deebo Samuel . Samuel got four carries and six targets Sunday, with an average depth of target of just 5.0 yards. He nearly got into the end zone on the first drive, which would have made it a fine game for Fantasy, but even then, this kind of usage just isn't going to make Samuel a top-12 WR like we hoped he would be. You can see the math problem I often refer to when talking about the 49ers in this game: They threw the ball 28 times, with seven going to Brandon Aiyuk and six going to Christian McCaffrey and Samuel; George Kittle ended up with just two targets. It would be hard for all four of those pass-catchers to be must-start players on an offense throwing it 40 times a week. On this offense, it's going to lead to maddening inconsistency. One more thing: Speaking of maddening, Elijah Mitchell returned from IR and got more touches than Christian McCaffrey. It's hard to complain too much about McCaffrey's usage when he still got 14 carries and six targets, but I'll cop to being quite frustrated watching Mitchell get so many carries. McCaffrey still had 18.7 PPR points, but it could have easily been a 20-point game, and if Mitchell is going to have this prominent of a role, it's going to make McCaffrey's margin for error narrower. That might make him more like RB5 than RB1 moving forward, and those margins can matter. I truly did not expect to see Mitchell this involved this early. | | Panthers 25-Falcons 15 | | Winner: D'Onta Foreman. I thought there was some risk of Foreman being in a timeshare with Chuba Hubbard with the latter back from injury, but that wasn't the case at all. Foreman got five of the team's eight carries in the first quarter and kept that pace up most of the way, ultimately ending up with 130 yards on 31 carries with a touchdown. I still think there are going to be some pretty lousy games in the future here with Foreman -- he doesn't catch passes and the Panthers are still a bad team, a bad recipe if you're looking for weekly production. But he has clearly played his way into the lead RB role when the Panthers are in run-mode, and that should keep him in the RB2 discussion most weeks. Loser: Kyle Pitts. This was one of the most frustrating games of the season to watch, because the issue for Pitts this time around wasn't that he didn't get the opportunities; the issue was that Marcus Mariota didn't even give him a chance. Mariota wasn't even close on several throws to Pitts this week, so when you see the 8-2-28-0 line for Pitts, understand that he isn't the issue. The problem is, Mariota is the starting QB here and likely will be moving forward -- I haven't seen much reason to think they're going to go with rookie Desmond Ridder if they haven't yet. I'm probably going to keep Pitts in the low-end TE1 range moving forward, but he's behind the likes of Dalton Schultz, Pat Freiermuth, and Greg Dulcich now -- and probably for good. At least until the QB play improves. If it ever does. One more thing: D.J. Moore 's struggles in this one were more like what we've gotten used to seeing from Pitts this season. Despite leaving the game briefly to be evaluated for a concussion (and ultimately being cleared and returning), Moore led the team in targets. The problem is, the Panthers threw the ball just 16 times for 108 yards, with Moore catching four of six for 29 yards. The Panthers threw the ball just 11 times compared to 39 pass attempts from the end of the first quarter on, and they won't be in many situations like that moving forward, so consider this the floor for Moore. Unfortunately, that's now two floor games in a row, a reminder that he's being held back by his offense as much as anyone in the game right now. He's just a boom-or-bust WR3. | | | | | | | | |
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