Interest rates take cues from several places. Regularly scheduled economic data is always a consideration because a stronger economy implies more growth and tighter Fed policy, both of which are bad for rates. Certain reports carry significantly more weight than others. If put to a vote, the perennial top dog would be The Employment Situation (aka "the jobs report"). Over the years it is responsible for more volume and volatility in rates than any other data. The most recent installment came out this morning and it was a doozy. The headline number of the jobs report is a tally of new job creation reported by employers: nonfarm payrolls (NFP). That's just a fancy name for "jobs." Today's data reported the new jobs added in January, and there were quite a bit more than expected. NFP can be fairly volatile. It's not uncommon to see the number deviate from forecasts by more than 100k a few times a year. Those big deviations usually result in big reactions in rates. Forecasts called for just shy of 200k jobs. Today's actual NFP number came in at a staggering 517k, thus edging out March 2022 to stand as the biggest deviation since August 2021. To some extent, the massive gains may be attributed to a seasonal adjustment process that still struggles to understand new seasonal patterns that emerged after the pandemic. But even if we forego seasonal adjustments, the economy added more than 400k jobs per month on average over the past 12 months and the employment rate has fallen to the lowest level since the 1960s.
Interest rates take cues from several places. Regularly scheduled economic data is always a consideration because a stronger economy implies more growth and tighter Fed policy, both of which are bad for rates. Certain reports carry significantly mor... (read more)
Perfect Storm Leaves Rate Range Perfectly Intact Coming into the week, yields were near the top of a narrow range (3.4-3.56 give or take). With both ISM reports, the jobs report, and policy announc... (read more)
Fun with numbers! 1: the number of Chinese surveillance balloons over Montana. (That we know of.) Did you know that the last day of 2023 is 123123? (You heard it here first!) While we’re on random numbers, Atlanta has almost 25 thousand surveillance ... (read more)
Interest rates displayed are national averages and for informational purposes only. Actual rates from lenders may vary based on several factors including, but not limited to, credit worthiness, ability to replay, credit score, down payment, loan term, etc.