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| Wednesday, March 16, 2022 |
| Happy Wednesday, everyone! It's all happening in baseball right now, and it's all happening really fast. The end of the lockout meant a lot of things, but the most exciting was the re-opening of free agency. And since the league has been back open for business, free agents are flying off the shelves. Perhaps equally as exciting has been the player movement we've seen on the trade market. There have been several season-defining trades already completed and more to come. |
| Over at CBSSports.com/Fantasy we have a live updated free agency tracker that you can find here. You'll get up-to-date analysis on the biggest moves from Scott White and more. We'll discuss some of the biggest moves below, including why you need to know about new Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki. |
| We also want to keep the momentum rolling with a mock draft to recap in every newsletter leading up to opening day so today we'll break down a H2H Categories mock that took place after the injury updates on both Fernando Tatis and Ronald Acuna. These injuries have dropped two players who were routinely going in Rounds 1 and 2 (with some ambitious drafters even reaching into Round 1 for Acuna) far and we'll talk about that fall and if it's warranted. |
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| And of course, as always, you can follow to make sure you get the latest episodes of Fantasy Baseball Today right when they drop on Apple and Spotify. Catch up now for a more detailed look at ADP risers and fallers you need to know about plus Scott's top-50 keepers heading into the 2022 season -- for everyone in keeper leagues. |
| 12-team H2H categories mock |
| I didn't get a chance to participate in our first mock since the Tatis and Acuna news, which is a shame because I love the format (H2H with categories instead of points), but I was definitely curious to see how far these studs will fall given their injury news. Both players require projection, and even though Tatis seems to have a firmer recovery timeline now, his injury concerns me more. Look no further than Ke'Bryan Hayes and several others before him to see what kind of impact an early-season wrist injury can have on the rest of that season. I'm concerned Tatis will be the same player from a power standpoint -- for this year at least -- once he returns. |
| Here are a few of the key takeaways Scott provided, including where both Tatis and Acuna went off the board: |
| With Tatis likely sidelined until at least June, Shohei Ohtani went first overall, but it certainly won't be the norm. I mentioned there are daily lineup locks in this league, which maximizes the impact of a two-way player like him. You can move him to pitcher on the days he's taking the mound and keep him at utility on the days he's not. Ronald Acuna, who we recently learned is aiming for a May return (and may not be ready to play the outfield until late May), slipped back to Round 2 after recently being a fixture in Round 1. I always seem to be a round behind the consensus, whatever that consensus happens to be.The removal of Tatis and Zack Wheeler (shoulder) from the first two rounds moved Cedric Mullins and Austin Riley into that range of picks. It may not become the norm, but the Riley pick is exactly why I'm increasingly tempted to bump Rafael Devers into the first-round range. The margin for error at third base is just too thin.Wheeler, who's behind in his preparations for the season after experiencing shoulder soreness in the offseason, didn't make it all the way through Round 3. It's a reasonable response to what sounds like a non-injury at this point. I was prepared to take him with the second pick of Round 4. Tatis ended up going with the first pick of Round 8, 85th overall, which is a little early for me. I have him just outside my top 100, beyond the point when I'd be looking to take Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger , but the shallower the league, the more you can justify the risk. In theory, he'll still be available for 60 percent of the season, so as long as you're not crippling your team's chances in the near-term, he'll reward you down the line. |
| I was curious to see where a few more of the new faces in new places were going as well -- namely Matt Olson, who was recently acquired via trade by the Braves and extended shortly after. He came off the board at the top of Round 3 at No. 28 overall. Jesse Winker, who figures to lose value by shifting parks from Cincinnati to Seattle, fell all the way to No. 117 overall. Newly acquired Yankee Josh Donaldson was selected at No. 111 overall, six spots ahead of Winker. |
| You can find the rest of the draft results by round and team here. |
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| Seiya Suzuki has arrived |
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| The Cubs agreed to a five-year contract with Seiya Suzuki, and it's time to get him on your Fantasy radar. The 27-year-old former Nippon Professional Baseball star is still very much in his prime and likely to be a contributor right away. Chris Towers did an excellent job breaking down Suzuki's Fantasy profile for re-draft leagues and where he would draft him among this year's crop of outfielders -- you can find that here. |
| Suzuki currently has an ADP of No. 190 overall, but that number will rise now that he has joined a team. |
| And before you think this could be the next Shohei Ohtani -- and it could be right NOW -- here's a excerpt from Towers' breakdown that puts that into a larger perspective: |
| Of course, you can't just take what Suzuki has done in NPB and expect him to repeat it in the majors; as good as Shohei Ohtani is, he hasn't yet matched the .322/.416/.588 line he had in his age-21 season in Japan. The competition level in NPB is very high – the highest in any non-MLB affiliated league in the world, no doubt – but it's not uniformly major-league quality. You're probably talking about a level of competition somewhere between Triple-A and MLB, according to most talent evaluators, and you can see that in the ZiPS projection for Suzuki in a neutral park compared to his 2021 numbers: |
| 2021: .317/.433/.636, 38 HR, 9 SBZiPS: .281/.351/.480, 23 HR, 12 SB |
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| 25 Burning Questions for 2022 drafts |
| One of my personal favorite pieces of the year is Scott White's burning questions that need answers -- and we them -- just in time before our drafts. He just released this year's version touching on key players with major question marks for a multitude of reasons like Jacob deGrom and Bobby Witt. You can find his breakdown here. |
| These were some of my favorite takeaways from Scott's piece: |
| What is really going on with deGrom? |
| The undisputed best pitcher in baseball didn't make a single appearance in the second half of what was shaping up to be a career-best season with a 1.08 ERA, 0.55 WHIP and 14.3 K/9. Only later on did we learn that an MRI showed a UCL tear at one point. Scary stuff. It's why people are drafting deGrom reluctantly, outside the top five at the position, when he'd normally be the obvious No. 1. The 33-year-old says the UCL is fine now, though, and new manager Buck Showalter is treating him like any other starting pitcher, even giving him the opening day nod already. |
| "I treated the offseason the same and prepared the same way and everything felt good," deGrom said. "I'll maybe just try to stay on top of things a little more if little things come up, stay on top of them, because there's times where you'll not say anything and it'll be a snowball effect." |
| The more we see of deGrom this spring, the more he's liable to move up the rankings. |
| Will we see more of the deadened ball? |
| The presumed end of the juiced ball era was a major talking point heading into last season, with MLB introducing a new and not-as-bouncy baseball , and early returns were devastating. As a whole, the league hit just .232 with a .699 OPS in April. Things improved from there, but the new ball still had the effect of reducing offense from the previous two years or perhaps even longer, the juiced ball era having begun midway through 2016. For Fantasy, the middle class returned at starting pitcher, and disparity returned within the hitter ranks. Alterations in draft strategy this year are largely in response to that. |
| Here's the problem: The league's introduction of the new balls was less than seamless, so to speak. Old balls made it into games still, reportedly because of production delays, and there's no telling exactly when or how often they were used. So do we know the full impact of the new balls yet? Could the landscape change yet again? Could hitters with middling exit velocities lose even more ground in the home run department? It can't be ruled out. |
| Is service time manipulation a thing of the past? |
| The players union sought to address the matter in the new CBA that took forever to come together, but from where I sit, they didn't get it done. The incentives are convoluted, but the gist is that if a player who spends his entire rookie season on a major-league roster goes on to compete for awards in the years that follow, his team is awarded draft picks. Whether or not that possibility outweighs losing the player to free agency a year earlier remains to be seen, but suffice it to say I have my doubts. |
| Most likely, we'll still be forced to stash away the biggest prospects for a possible early or midseason promotion after the appropriate service time markers are reached. The list this year includes Royals shortstop Bobby Witt, Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman, Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson and others. It's not a definite waiting period either, which only adds to the frustration. Draft a guy in anticipation of a late-April promotion and you may end up stashing him all the way through June. |
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