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Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Garrett Crochet is only available in 23% of CBS Fantasy leagues. In Yahoo leagues, he's available in 49% of leagues. In ESPN leagues, that number is 79.7% as of Tuesday night. 
Those numbers should be zero across the board after what he just did to the Braves Tuesday. 
Crochet struck out eight batters over seven innings of work, with only one earned run allowed on a solo shot by Marcell Ozuna – otherwise, he allowed just two hits and one walk on 93 pitches, and it sure looks like the former first-round pick is emerging as an ace for the White Sox . He racked up 18 swinging strikes Tuesday while showing a bit more depth in his repertoire, picking up nine whiffs with his fastball, five with his slider, and four with his cutter – he didn't have a single whiff with his cutter on Opening Day and had just 11 total. 
And he did that against the Braves.
Now, it's worth noting that plenty of bad pitchers have had 16 or more strikeouts in their first two starts of a season. Heck, the most recent pitcher to do it was Sawyer Gipson-Long, and I don't think I'm being unfair when I say that nobody thinks he's an ace in waiting. Even extremely talented young hurlers like Taj Bradley and Joe Ryan did it last season, and both fell apart – Bradley fairly quickly, while Ryan held it together for a few months before ultimately ending up with a pretty unsightly ERA.
Which is to say, Crochet is far from a sure thing. There are a lot of ways things could go wrong for him from here on. His command still seems less than ideal, and if he can't sustain high-90s velocity as more pitches and innings rack up, that could definitely come back to haunt him. Crochet has also thrown just 85.1 innings combined since being drafted in 2020, so can we really expect much more than about 120 from him this season? 
Those are good questions for another time. The only thing you should have time for right now is making sure you don't play in one of the 23% of CBS Fantasy leagues where Crochet is available right now. If you are, you need to do everything you can to add him. Drop A.J. Puk. Drop Ryan Pepiot. Drop Charlie Morton! Drop someone! Crochet is showing too much upside right now to let him stay on the wire. You'll figure out the rest later. 
Crochet is the pitching standout of the early part of the season, but he's certainly not alone. Before we move on the rest of today's newsletter, check out these pieces Scott White and I have written about the early state of pitching: 
And now, here's what you need to know from Tuesday's action, beginning with the top waiver-wire targets who aren't Garrett Crochet. 
Tuesday's top waiver targets
Brice Turang, 2B, Brewers (25%) – Turang started his third game in a row Tuesday and continued to run absolutely wild in the most literal sense, stealing two more bases while going 2 for 3 with a walk. He still has a lot to prove after hitting just .218/.285/.300 in 448 plate appearances last season, but he's getting the opportunities and making the most of them, and looks like a must-roster player in category-based leagues for the stolen base upside.
Maikel Garcia, 3B, Royals (57%) – I keep writing about Garcia, and I'm going to keep doing it until he stops hitting or until you all get your act together and get his roster rate above 70%. The Royals leadoff hitter went 2 for 4 with a double, a triple, and a walk Tuesday, and he added another hard-hit ball, a 108-mph liner with an expected batting average of .680 that Gunnar Henderson made a heck of a play on to snag. It's early, and the sample sizes are small, but Garcia is taking all those hard-hit balls from last season and he's elevating them just like we wanted to see, and I'm buying in. 

Abner Uribe, RP, Brewers (58%) – Uribe has now saved three games for the Brewers in four games, with the lone exception coming when he had already pitched consecutive days and wasn't available. He's the closer, and while there is some risk that his command issues crop up and cost him the role, he also absolutely has the talent to run away with it until Devin Williams is ready in the summer. 
Michael Kopech, SP, White Sox (34%) – Kopech was thrown into the fire for his first save Tuesday, entering with a one-run lead in the eighth inning and runners on first and second for Ozzie Albies and the heart of the Braves lineup. And, to be honest, he wasn't great – he allowed a run in the ninth on a solo homer (the White Sox had extended the lead to two runs after he got out of the eighth-inning jam) and then put the go-ahead run on via walk before getting out of it. Still, he's sitting in the high-90s with his fastball out of the bullpen, and Tuesday's usage sure looked like how a closer would be used. It's a poor team context, and Kopech is no sure thing, but I'm optimistic that he's going to be a very good closer for them. 
Reynaldo Lopez, RP, Braves (52%) – As expected – and as we saw in the spring – Lopez's velocity was down significantly in his return to the rotation, though that didn't hurt him much against the White Sox lineup, as he struck out five over six one-run innings. I think the upside is fairly limited with his velocity diminished, but Lopez could pitch well enough to win a bunch of games with this Braves' lineup backing him, and he's worth adding in any points leagues especially. 
News and Notes
Rangers GM Chris Young said that Josh Jung will be sidelined for six weeks after having surgery Tuesday to repair his fractured right wrist.They promoted Justin Foscue, an interesting-ish prospect, but it was actually Josh Smith who started at third base Tuesday.
Bo Bichette was back in the lineup after missing two games with neck spasms.
Justin Verlander will throw a bullpen session Thursday before pitching in a minor-league game a few days later. He threw 52 pitches in a three-inning simulated game on Monday, and I'm still hoping he'll be ready by late April. 
Sonny Gray will no longer make a rehab start Wednesday, instead opting to throw a simulated game. He's expected to make another rehab start at Triple-A next week. The team insists it isn't a setback for Gray, who is coming back from an early-March hamstring strain, but this probably delays his return to the team's rotation, with MLB.com noting his debut could come April 14 in Arizona
Jordan Romano threw a successful side session Tuesday, his first mound work since being diagnosed with elbow inflammation. I would expect we'll see him in the majors in a few weeks if he avoids a setback. 
Paul Sewald played catch from 60 feet on Monday, his first time throwing since suffering a Grade 2 oblique strain. I'd be surprised if we saw him before May. 
Eloy Jimenez has missed two straight with a left adductor injury. He remains day-to-day.
Vaughn Grissom could begin a minor-league rehab assignment next week. He started the season on the IL due to a groin injury, but should have a spot in the lineup at second base waiting for him, and he remains worth stashing. 
Apparently Mets pitching prospects Christian Scott and Mike Vasil are both candidates to replace Tylor Megill in the rotation. If you have an empty bench spot in a deeper league, I'd speculate on Scott, who's only 9% rostered, who is scheduled to pitch at Triple-A Thursday. 
Monday standouts 
Shane Bieber, SP, Guardians @SEA: 6 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – I'm not saying Bieber is back to being an ace, or anything like that. But that's now two starts in a row where he's looked a whole heck of a lot like the guy who used to be an ace. His velocity was actually pretty much right where it was last season, and increased velocity was a big part of why we were starting to get excited about Bieber, so that's something to keep an eye on over the next few starts. I'm not buying Bieber as an ace again, but I'm certainly open-minded to the possibility. 
Zac Gallen, SP, Diamondbacks vs. NYY: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – That's two excellent starts in a row for Gallen, but I can't ignore the red flags here. His velocity continues to be down across the board, and while the six strikeouts were pretty solid, they came with just four swinging strikes on 96 pitches – he had 15 in the first start, at least. I am viewing Gallen as a sell-high candidate, though I do think the emphasis here has to be on high. Go see if you can get Tarik Skubal for him. 
Zach Eflin, SP, Rays vs. TEX: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – In the interest of transparency, I will admit I did sit Eflin in one league. But it was for Jack Flaherty , who has a prime matchup against the A's, so it's not like I was totally scared off Eflin. That he did this against a very good Rangers lineup gives me plenty of optimism to get him back in my lineup. 
Luis Castillo, SP, Mariners vs. CLE: 5.2 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – I've seen a few comments along the lines of, "Do we just bench Castillo until the weather warms up?" And maybe there's something to that – Castillo's struggles in cold weather are pretty well documented by this point. On the other hand, he had a 1.82 ERA last April, so I'm certainly not going to be the one to tell you to bench your ace. 
Nestor Cortes, SP, Yankees @ARI: 5 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – That list of pitchers I mentioned you could drop Garrett Crochet for? Yeah, I think you can add Cortes to it. I'm not panicking yet, but seven strikeouts to four walks in 10 innings across his first two starts is extremely underwhelming, as were the three swinging strikes on just 88 pitches tonight. I'm not saying you should drop Cortes for just anybody, but for Ronel Blanco or Tanner Houck? Yeah, I'd do that. 
Logan Webb, SP, Giants vs. LAD: 3.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – I think we're probably gonna have a whole bunch of situations this season where you can just write off a very-good starter's performance against the Dodgers. This was a weird start for Webb, who threw 38 sliders and just 14 changeups, but his changeup got hit pretty hard early on, so I'm guessing that's why he made the switch. He didn't get any whiffs on the slider, but again, it's the Dodgers, so I'm not really going to hold that against him. 
Graham Ashcraft, SP, Reds: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K –  – We've done the Graham Ashcraft thing before, and it almost never works out for Fantasy, but he had a pretty good outing here against the Phillies despite a couple of Bryce Harper bombs. He leaned much more heavily on his sinker than we usually see, and maybe that change can help him unlock something. On the other hand, he gave up 18 balls in play with a 97.7 mph average exit velocity, which is kind of like facing Aaron Judge every time, so my expectations remain pretty low. 
Bryce Harper, 1B, Phillies: Harper was hitless in the first three games of the season, but clobbered three homers Tuesday. Good thing you weren't worried, right? 
Spencer Steer, OF, Reds: Steer went 3 for 4 Tuesday against the Phillies and has multiple hits in four of the first five games. He hit his first homer Monday, too, so it's been a pretty terrific start for Steer, who also made an appearance at second base already, putting him four appearances away from adding another eligibility to his profile. 
Evan Carter, OF, Rangers: Carter was hitless Tuesday against the Rays, dropping him to 0 for 16 for the season. That's the bad news, but he still has six walks to just two strikeouts in five games, so I'm not worried, and neither should you be. 
Seiya Suzuki, OF, Cubs: Suzuki's hot spring has definitely carried over, as he has a massive 94.9 mph average exit velocity and had his hardest-hit ball as a major-leaguer Tuesday, a 115-mph, 414-foot homer off Kyle Freeland. He's averaging over 95 mph on his batted balls right now and has hit 63% of his batted balls over 95 mph to boot. 
 
 
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