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Tuesday, December 8, 2020
Monday went great for those of you with Bills in your lineups; not so much for everyone else. It sure didn't go great for those of us with Antonio Gibson (left with a toe injury after two touches), JuJu Smith-Schuster (seven catches, 28 yards, somehow), Chase Claypool (two catches, 38 yards), Terry McLaurin (two for 14), Benny Snell (eight carries for 5 yards), or … well, you get the picture. Logan Thomas and J.D. McKissic were awesome, Diontae Johnson was great, and Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk were both good enough, but pretty much everyone else you might have had in your lineup disappointed. 
It was a rough night if you needed big numbers, so hopefully tonight's Ravens-Cowboys game can provide a few more bright spots. And hopefully you've still got a lot to play for heading into Week 14, whether you're still fighting for a playoff spot or set to kick off your road to the championship. Of course, the ideal scenario is a first-round playoff bye, where you can watch everyone else scramble to make the right calls. You all can kick back, relax, and let the rest of us tear our hair out. 
Obviously, we'll have our usual Week 14 preview content right here every morning in your inbox all week long no matter what situation you're in, and that means we're starting with the waiver wire today. I've got Jamey Eisenberg's top targets for you in today's newsletter, along with a round up of the latest news from around the league and some key lessons from the Monday night games. And then I've got your biggest questions for Week 14 on the way at the bottom of the newsletter. If you want your questions answered, send me an email at [email protected] and I'll include it in an upcoming newsletter.
Before waivers run tonight, check out Jamey Eisenberg's Waiver Wire priorities column, with the best targets for every position. Here are Jamey's top-five targets for Week 14, and make sure you check out Tuesday's Fantasy Football Today podcast for even more in-depth discussions of the top options for the week: 
  • Keke Coutee (39%) -- I was skeptical Coutee would manage to make much of an impact in replacing Will Fuller, but he sure did Sunday, catching eight of nine passes for 141 yards while playing a season-high 75% of the snaps. Opportunity is nearly everything, and the opportunity to catch passes from Deshaun Watson may be enough to make Coutee a very valuable Fantasy option down the stretch.
  • Tim Patrick (55%) -- The Broncos offense hasn't taken the step forward many were hoping for, but they might have one of the best receiving corps in the NFL next season with Patrick's emergence. He's been under-rostered all season and is a solid WR3 for the season's closing stretch. 
  • T.Y. Hilton (49%) -- Hilton has come alive of late, with 191 yards on 12 catches with two touchdowns over the past two games, and he has good matchups against the Raiders and the Texans over the next two weeks. He could be a solid starting option until Week 16. 
  • J.D. McKissic (65%) -- When he was taking work away from Antonio Gibson, I was advocating for Washington to limit McKissic's role; when he's taking work away from Peyton Barber, let's feed McKissic. If Gibson's toe injury forces him out of Week 14 against the 49ers, McKissic is going to be an RB2 in all formats. 
  • Adrian Peterson (49%) -- This is another one that's going to depend on whether the other guy on the team is able to play -- in this case, D'Andre Swift, who missed multiple games with a concussion and then sat out Week 13 with an illness. We don't have many details on Swift's status, so if you need RB help, Peterson had 31 carries and four touchdowns over the past two games and has a good matchup against the Packers with Kerryon Johnson also dealing with a knee injury. 
Injuries, News and MNF Notes
Five things to know from Monday's games
  1. Antonio Gibson suffered a toe injury that forced him out of the game -- Gibson had just two carries before the injury, and though he was seen getting the toe wrapped on the sideline, Gibson was unable to return. Peyton Barber led the team with 14 carries for 23 yards and a touchdown, but J.D. McKissic played more snaps and had 10 catches for 70 yards. McKissic is the better Fantasy option if Gibson is out.
  2. The Steelers offense is just a mess -- Ben Roethlisberger finished with a decent Fantasy performance, but he wasn't good, and his receivers compounded that with a bunch of drops -- eight, to be exact, led by Diontae Johnson's three. This offense has value for Fantasy almost exclusively because of the massive pass volume, but that's enough to make Johnson, Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster worth using, especially in PPR leagues, but I could see the bottom falling out if things go wrong in any given week.
  3. Logan Thomas could help you win your league -- Or he could put up 30 yards in each of the next three games. There's always been big weekly upside here with Thomas, who has the seventh-most targets among all tight ends and is one of the best athletes at the position. He's a boom-or-bust tight end, which puts him in the same company as pretty much every tight end not named Travis Kelce or Darren Waller, but few have his combination of athleticism and role. 
  4. There's room for both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk -- It didn't look that way until late, when the 49ers finally got Samuel involved in the passing game, but in all, a pretty good game for both -- 6-73 on nine targets for Samuel, 5-95 with a touchdown on nine targets for Aiyuk. Expect the 49ers to manufacture more ways to get Samuel involved early moving forward, especially in the short areas around the line of scrimmage. 
  5. You can't rely on any of the Bills or 49ers running backs -- Devin Singletary is the Bills lead back, but his 18 carries were at least in part due to Zack Moss' costly early fumble. Don't expect 18 carries every week, especially now that the Bills have seemingly embraced their status as a passing team. Meanwhile, the 49ers continue to split work between Raheem Mostert (nine carries) and Jeff Wilson (seven), which makes it hard for either to stand out. And given their limited passing game usage, you'd need to be pretty desperate to start either right now. 
Here's the biggest news you need to know from Monday: 
  • D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel among eight added to Reserve/COVID-19 list for Panthers -- According to reports, Moore tested positive, while Samuel was a close contact, which means he could be cleared to play in Week 14. Obviously we'll be following this all week. I would hate to see Christian McCaffrey's (shoulder) expected return delayed. 
  • Jon Gruden doesn't expect Josh Jacobs (ankle) to play in Week 14 -- I know, Devontae Booker was disappointing Sunday, but he still got 16 carries and a pair of targets. If he starts against the Colts, he'll be back in the No. 2 RB discussion
  • Cam Akers has a shoulder injury -- The Rams didn't practice Monday, but he wouldn't have if they had. That's bad news with a Thursday night game coming up, and just awful timing for Akers after he seemingly emerged as the Rams No. 1 back. If Akers is out, Darrell Henderson will be in the No. 2 RB mix for Week 14. 
  • Todd Gurley is playing through a knee issue -- We knew that when he missed Week 12, but he was limited to just third downs and red zone work Sunday. This could be a three-way split moving forward, with none of Gurley, Brian Hill or Ito Smith seeing enough work to be more than a fringe option.
  • Lamar Jackson was activated from the Reserve/COVID-19 list -- That means he'll play Tuesday, barring something unexpected. It sure would be nice to see him get on track against a pretty easy matchup, huh?
Week 14's Biggest Questions
You've got questions, I've got answers. Here are my thoughts on some of our readers' biggest questions heading into Week 14: 
  • Nick: How do you determine when is the right time to bench a player you've been starting all season?
There's no one right answer. A lot of people thought it might have been time to bench Alvin Kamara in Week 13, and it might have cost them a trip to the playoffs. On the other hand, a stubborn refusal to acknowledge Miles Sanders is no longer a must-start guy very well could have cost you the same. Generally speaking, I'm a, "You gotta dance with who you came to the dance with" guy -- specifically The Hold Steady's version -- but you can't be dogmatic about it. It's all about circumstances. At one point, I viewed Ezekiel Elliott and Sanders as must-start players regardless of matchup; now that they are stuck in mediocre-at-best offenses and have seen their targets decrease, you can't put them in that category anymore. The same might be true of Kyler Murray if he isn't going to run as much as he was earlier in the season. 
  • Shannon: Which RB can you start regardless of matchup in the playoffs? 
Here are the RBs I wouldn't sit under any circumstances, assuming health, in no specific order: Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey (assuming he returns as expected in Week 14), Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb and James Robinson. That is … fewer than I expected, and maybe I'm being too restrictive with my definition, because it's tough to envision a scenario in which I'm sitting David Montgomery, Myles Gaskin, Antonio Gibson (if healthy), or Ezekiel Elliott given their work in both facets of the game; the same is probably true of Kenyan Drake, James Conner and possibly Wayne Gallman, though they feel like bigger stretches. Everyone else? Varying degrees of matchup and/or game flow dependent, and I might throw Elliott, Drake, Mostert and Conner in there, too. If you could give me 75% confidence D'Andre Swift, Cam Akers, Jonathan Taylor, Melvin Gordon, Ronald Jones, Chris Carson, Miles Sanders or J.K. Dobbins were going to be their team's lead back every week, they'd be pretty close to that matchup-proof group, but each of them could play 35% of their team's snaps in the next game and I wouldn't be surprised. 
  • Mike: Can Miles Sanders be salvaged?
Absolutely. It'll just require the Eagles offense to play at a level we haven't seen in more than a month and for Carson Wentz/the coaching staff to regain confidence in him in the passing game. Or, Jalen Hurts could step in as the starter and spark the Eagles offense, opening up running lanes for Sanders to create chunk plays with the threat of his own rushing. What would I need to see from Sanders in Week 14 to trust him going forward? Five targets, including some screens and preferably at least one down the field, would go a long way. That was always the key to unlocking RB1 value in my eyes. 
  • Liza: Can I trust Akers as my RB2 in the playoffs? How would you rank Akers, Gaskin, and Sanders? 
Akers might actually be last of that group, though that could change if he's able to practice without issue Tuesday and Wednesday. But even then, there's no guarantee that his Week 13 role will definitely lead to similar work in Week 14, let alone the rest of the way. I hope he's the No. 1 back the rest of the way, and I think he's more likely than the rest of the options in L.A. if he plays, but I know Gaskin is the guy in Miami. He played 71% of the snaps in his return from IR in Week 13, and hasn't played fewer than 63% in a game all season. He's your top guy. 
  • Matthew:I have Kyler Murray and Kirk Cousins. Can I play one or do I stream someone?
If you've got Murray, you're in a legitimately tough spot, because he's barely averaging 20 rushing yards or 200 passing yards in three games since his shoulder injury. The Giants defense is feistier than they have gotten credit for before they handled the Seahawks last week, so it isn't a layup either way. But, there are few quarterbacks who have more weekly upside than Murray when he's right, and it's entirely possible he could be back to normal in Week 14. And remember, you didn't just go to the dance with Murray -- he drove the dang car. I'm sticking with him.
  • Folan: Did Bill Belichick break Justin Herbert?
Like Murray, Herbert is riding a multi-game slump heading into the playoffs, but unlike Murray, there isn't an obvious explanation for it. Call it the rookie wall, call it regression, call it what you will, but you can't ignore it. It might just be a fluke, but think back to recent years and how many rookie quarterbacks you would've been comfortable viewing as a must-start Fantasy for your playoffs; Herbert being that good was the outlier. The Falcons haven't been quite as much of a cake matchup since firing Dan Quinn, either. However, with the top streaming options for Week 14 are looking like Mitchell Trubisky (vs. HOU), Tua Tagovailoa (vs. KC), Andy Dalton (@CIN) or maybe Matthew Stafford (vs. GB), I'd probably stick with Herbert unless I have someone I feel really great about. 
  • JB: With the Pats defense being lights out, do I bail on Cooper Kupp next week for Jamison Crowder?
The Cooper Kupp experience hasn't been quite as fun a ride this season as in year's past, and there's some irony in the fact that the main reason for that has been a lack of touchdowns -- Kupp's supposed strong suit before this season. There's regression due there, and Kupp is still seeing a ton of targets, so he's definitely a safer bet than someone like Crowder. I wouldn't view the Patriots as the kind of matchup to avoid in the Fantasy playoffs, despite two good games against Murray and Herbert. 
 
 
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