HOW TO THINK ABOUT IT
Could Biden bow out? Once the clear front-runner, the former veep is on increasingly shaky ground. While he still leads in national polling — close to 30 percent compared to Warren being in the low 20s with Democratic voters — he’s sunk to third or fourth place in Iowa and New Hampshire, the earliest-voting states. That drop in popularity has been matched by a disappointing fundraising effort: In the third quarter of this year, Biden (below) banked merely $8.9 million against the $33.7 million, $25.7 million and $23.4 million raked in by Sen. Bernie Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg, respectively.
Out of left field. Warren’s steady rise has made her look like the front-runner. But the road ahead is far from smooth: Her “Medicare for All” plan has attracted criticism for what analysts across the political spectrum say will be mathematical gymnastics just to make it work, from an employers' tax that might hurt the very middle class workers she's vowed to spare, to a politically difficult immigration overhaul and massive military cuts. Meanwhile, progressive peer Sanders is proving remarkably resilient, with his recent heart attack having seemingly reenergized his dogged supporters. An endorsement from liberal darling Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez hasn’t hurt, either.
The new Obama? Buttigieg, aka “Mayor Pete,” is channeling the onetime upstart’s promise to break through divisions to pull together a divided country. OZY’s Nick Fouriezos reports from the campaign trail that while every presidential candidate attended, no candidate arrived at Friday's Liberty and Justice celebration in Iowa like Buttigieg — who was flanked by his mother, his husband, a marching band and some 2,300 supporters chanting, "I-O-W-A, Mayor Pete all the way." His organizational chops were complemented by a breakout speech compared by many to Barack Obama's in 2007. Buttigieg physically manifested his surge in the early caucus state, where he’s now eclipsed Biden and trails only Warren in recent polls.
Room for more. Still, none of these Democratic options appear unbeatable, which suggests there’s plenty of opportunity for others to break in. The problem is, few others have managed to break through. Senators Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar have flashed promise but have yet to gain significant traction. Sen. Kamala Harris was supposed to be in the top tier, having attracted an enormous crowd at her debut speech in January and put on a commanding debate performance against Biden, but she remains mired in the back of the pack. She’s since vowed to “f---ing move to Iowa,” and slashed her staff for a reboot. There’s also Andrew Yang — a marginal competitor so far, but one who quadrupled his staff since the summer.
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