The closest an English major like me gets to advanced mathematics is when I’m uncertain about a shot at a new course. I’ll ask the same question — “Is it better to be short or long here?” Between the demands of the hole and the inconsistency of my swing, the numbers in my head swirl.



The other day my colleague Luke Kerr-Dineen outlined the importance of dialing in your yardage with each club, and a few simple ways to do it. If you have access to a launch monitor, Luke advises taking 3-5 swings with each club, throwing out any outliers, and arriving at the average carry yardage.

For low-handicap players like Luke, this sounds simple enough. For players like me, an “average” shot is an elusive concept.

Suppose I hit a bunch of 7-irons on a launch monitor, carrying the ball as far as 152 with one swing, and as short as 134 with another. The mistake amateurs make is identifying 152 yards as their 7-iron number when it’s a shot they only hit once in a while. But if the average between those two is 141 yards, that doesn’t feel quite right, either.

“Most people will just give you a single number for their yardage when they really should be thinking about it as a range,” said Lou Stagner, a golf performance coach who shares valuable data insights for golfers. “You don't always make perfect contact. Sometimes you shut the face a little bit and it goes a lot longer. Sometimes you hit it off the heel with the face wide open and it goes a lot shorter.”

For most golfers, a range of yardages is the more sensible option, and that leads to my recurring question: “Is it better to be short or long?” When both 134 and 152 yards are potential outcomes, you need to consider which you can live with more. If there’s water short of the green, you might club up to take it out of play. If there’s OB long, you’d take less. This is what I call my “not-terrible” yardage because I’m protecting against disaster—which sounds kind of dark, but is meant to eliminate doubt.



When the target is an island green like this week’s 17th at TPC Sawgrass, the carry yardage is paramount, but another consideration for average players is what happens next. The type of high-speed swings that generate spin and launch the ball high are more accustomed to stopping approach shots abruptly, but the rest of us require further calculation: how far could this shot roll, and where would it go if it does?

“If you're an amateur player that doesn't generate a ton of spin and it's a lower-ball flight, you need to factor in how much it's going to chase out,” Stagner said. “There are guys that I play with in my weekend group who kind of fit that bill. They carry their 7-iron 135 yards, but if it hits on the green, it's chasing to the back. That can be a really important piece of the puzzle.”

In other words, your yardage calculations could mean knowing four different numbers. The high- and low-end of your carry range, and the same for total distance. It might seem like a lot of math in the middle of a round. But it’s all so you can add up fewer numbers at the end.

This was a free version of Low Net, a Golf Digest+ exclusive newsletter written for the average golfer, by an average golfer. To get Low Net each week directly to your inbox, sign up for Golf Digest+ right here. Have a topic you want me to explore? Send me an email and I'll do my best to dive in.