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| Wednesday, October 23, 2024 |
| It's Wednesday, which means it's matchup day for FFT Newsletter readers! Today's matchups will be pass-game centric, with Thursday's newsletter focused more on the run game. |
| Before we dive in, here are a few reminders for the FFT fam: |
| 1. If you did not catch the Beyond the Box Score podcast episode on FFT that I record with Adam Aizer and Dan Schneier every Monday, you can listen to that here! |
| 2. This Thursday's Beyond the Box Score guest will be Nate Tice of Yahoo Fantasy! |
| Under Pressure -- how might blitz/pressure rates impact Week 8? |
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The Ravens likely aren't going to be passing the ball a whole lot
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| Per the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the Browns are bottom-10 in opponent pass rate over expectation, meaning offenses have chosen to run more than expected relative to the circumstances surrounding any given play call. That makes sense to me, as this Browns pass defense is pretty scary. Obviously, there's Myles Garrett to worry about. Cleveland also blitzes like crazy. Only the Broncos (44% blitz rate) and Vikings (43%) have blitzed more often than Cleveland (37%). The Browns have the fastest time to pressure (2.31 seconds) in the NFL. This defense is scary. |
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| When pressured, Lamar Jackson has been much more likely to scramble. He's scrambled on 20 of 80 pressured dropbacks (25%). His scramble rate on non-pressured dropbacks is three percent! |
| When blitzed, Jackson has leaned on his top targets -- Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely all have been more likely to be targeted. Heading into Week 7, Flowers had the best separation score vs. man coverage in the NFL. There's definitely upside for some big plays vs. a Browns defense that is top-five in blitz and man coverage rate. The most-likely outcome is a heavy helping of Derrick Henry, though. Combine that with questions about the health of his ankle after Flowers saw just one target in Week 7, and I'm not overly excited to use the Year 2 breakout in Week 8. There's definitely upside for a big game, but I'd start both George Pickens and D.J. Moore ahead of him. They've often been behind Flowers in my week-to-week rankings. If Jauan Jennings suits up and Deebo Samuel does not, I'd start Jennings ahead of Flowers. I'd also start both Jaylen Waddle (assuming Tagovailoa does make his return) and Brian Thomas Jr. ahead of Flowers. To me, Flowers and Tee Higgins are neck-and-neck when splitting hairs on these mid-range WR2 starts for Week 8. |
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| Note from the author: Only read this section if you have time to kill |
| If you scroll down, you'll find clear-cut and actionable takeaways! Thanks for reading! Godspeed with the Fantasy football decisions this week, soldier! |
| The Ravens note wasn't all that actionable for Fantasy football. I hope that is okay. I know that this is a Fantasy football newsletter first and foremost. |
| If you do want me to make your start/sit decisions for you, I provide rankings every Tuesday, Thursday, and Sunday. From my perspective, there's no way for me to possibly understand the necessary context around each person's individual NFL experience to cater my content in a way that is going to be specifically actionable. So, I simply convey all that I can about what I know. |
| I would love for this newsletter to remain open-ended and spacious and not be forced into any linear path. I hope to provide interesting insight that might enable you to think about the NFL from new angles. You can do whatever you want with that information. I don't know what types of Fantasy gaming or betting you might get into. |
| Sometimes, the info here will be linear -- play BTJ! Sometimes it will be a bit more nebulous. I hope that is cool. I feel like we're steady rockin at this point, but I occasionally still get feedback about my delivery not being straight and to the point. That's kinda the whole vision, yeah? Beyond the box score, woo! |
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| These next four notes give clear-cut and actionable takeaways: |
| 1. There are a BUNCH of receivers who I would start ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr. in Week 8. I'll list them for you. |
| 2. I'm cautiously optimistic about both Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams in Week 8. I have both ranked as top-20 Fantasy receivers. |
| 3. I'm fine going back to Courtland Sutton as a flex play. Of course, I don't feel good about it! It's Bo Nix! |
| 4. Amari Cooper is worth a roll of the dice if you need upside this week. |
| Amari Cooper gets a potential breakout matchup in Week 8 |
| To be clear, like always, Cooper is a risky play. He only played one-third of the snaps in Week 7. Also, the Bills are likely to go run-heavy in this game if possible. Opposing playcallers have gone run-heavy vs. the Seahawks. Mike MacDonald's basically invites it, and the pressure created by the defensive front of Seattle certainly encourages it. The Seahawks are one of five defenses with a pressure rate above 40%. The blitz rate for the other four is 37%. Seattle's blitz rate is 24% (eighth-lowest in the NFL). I'd expect Joe Brady to lean on the ground game. |
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| If forced to take to the air, Josh Allen may hook up with Cooper for some big plays. Allen has a hilarious league-high 15.6-yard average depth of target when pressured. The Seahawks haven't faced many capable deep passers this season. Jameson Williams turned two targets into 80 yards and a score vs. Seattle. Darius Slayton popped off for 8-122-1. Deebo Samuel made a big play down the sideline. The Atlanta Falcons failed to create many explosive vs. this defense even with Riq Woolen out last week, though. If this game turns into a shootout, we could see Allen test out his new deep threat. |
| The WR position is really thin for Fantasy right now. Even with the expectation that Cooper will probably see fewer than five targets in this game, I have him ranked as the WR24 for Week 8. I have DeVonta Smith and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (only if DK Metcalf doesn't play) ahead of him but would start Cooper ahead of Tank Dell, Diontae Johnson, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Xavier Worthy. |
| Courtland Sutton probably bounces back vs. Carolina |
| The FP Data Suite lists Denver's offensive line vs. Carolina's pass rush as the most advantageous of any pass pro matchup in Week 8. The Panthers defense has overtaken the Colts as the league's worst pressure unit |
| Bo Nix has been better when not pressured, and he's been more likely to target Sutton (25% target per route run rate when not pressured, compared to 18% when pressured). Sutton will see lots of single-high safety looks and has an opportunity to make some big plays down the sideline. Keenan Allen, Wan'Dale Robinson, and Ladd McConkey are safer starts, but I'd go with Sutton if you want more upside. I'd start him ahead of Michael Pittman Jr. and Calvin Ridley. I view Sutton as the same type of roll of the dice as Jerry Jeudy, Christian Kirk, or Rome Odunze in Week 8. |
| Aaron Rodgers probably focuses in on Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson |
| The Patriots rank fifth-worst in pressure rate over expectation, according to the FP Data Suite. The only pass pro matchup that the Data Suite has graded as being in a more advantageous Week 8 spot than the Jets are the Broncos. Even though the Pats have one of the highest blitz rates, New England has the fourth-lowest pressure rate overall. |
| When blitzed, quarterbacks typically focus in on their top target. Garrett Wilson's target per route run rate has risen to 30% when Rodgers has been blitzed this season. When blitzed and not pressured, Rodgers has fed a 38% target per route run rate to Wilson. |
| Adams is probably just going to keep eating into that target share more and more with each passing week. I'd expect him to also benefit from this matchup. From an alignment standpoint, if wondering which wideout will draw Christian Gonzalez coverage, both receivers moved around a lot in Week 8. Adams played more in the slot than he has in any game that I have slot data available. I'm not so sure that Gonzalez will be able to focus his attention on either receiver specifically. |
| Breece Hall was super involved as a pass-catcher vs. Pittsburgh's scary pass rush in Week 7, but I expect more of those targets to shift downfield vs. the Pats. |
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| Kyler Murray and the Cardinals have a lot to prove |
| The Cardinals are three-point dogs vs. the Dolphins. Arizona has been one of the biggest disappointments in 2024, and Vegas apparently is done giving this team the benefit of the doubt. In Week 8, Arizona faces a Dolphins defense that has sneakily played really well. The Dolphins defense has the highest pressure rate in the NFL and the fourth-fastest time to pressure. Miami's blitz rate (29.6%) is barely above average. Calais Campbell and this defensive front has simply been moving offensive linemen. |
| Here are some notes on Kyler when facing pressure in 2024: |
| Only Jayden Daniels has a higher scramble rate vs. pressure.Murray has actually been less likely to throw deep when pressured, which is atypical.Murray has one of the highest first-read target rates when not pressured but one of the lowest when pressured.Murray has been much less likely to target Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson when pressured. |
| I don't necessarily want to shy away from MHJ in this spot, as it could turn into a shootout. My expectation is that the Cardinals will go as run-heavy as possible, though. The offensive line is not ready for Campbell and the Dolphins, let's just be honest. And Murray has not been getting it done. The Dolphins have the fifth-lowest opponent pass rate over expectation, and that rate has only risen over the past month. Teams are choosing to run more than expected, even accounting for the score and other circumstances against this defense. Part of that is likely to avoid Miami's pass rush. |
| Trey McBride has been Murray's top target when the QB feels pressure (assuming Kyler doesn't just use his legs). He's a locked in TE play and is a prime positive regression candidate if looking at his expected Fantasy points compared to his actual production. Beyond McBride, James Conner, and Murray, I'm not locking anyone into this matchup. And even Murray may be a bench candidate. I could see him melting down in this spot. The rushing upside in a potential shootout is enough that I'd be hard-pressed to bench Murray. |
| Displayed below is the range of receivers who I would consider starting ahead of MHJ: |
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| If you want to move any of the receivers who I have behind him ahead of Harrison Jr., I think that is totally fair. Nothing about this matchup is particularly encouraging other than the shootout potential. And I'm not sure that I believe enough in the play we've recently been seeing out of Murray to believe that a shootout is imminent. |
| Week 8 Coverage Data |
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Post-bye rookie bump for Rome Odunze? We'll see, the vets may have something to say about that!
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| Coming out of the bye week, Caleb Williams and the Bears face a Washington Commanders defense that has been carved up by passing games not pioneered by Deshaun Watson or Andy Dalton. Well, two other quarterbacks also didn't reach 200 yards vs. this defense -- Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones. A matchup vs. Washington did produce one of the most efficient games of each quarterback's season, though. Neither were required to do much, as the ground game produced easy wins. |
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| We may see something similar in Week 8, especially if Jayden Daniels doesn't suit up. This may simply be a huge D'Andre Swift game. Hopefully Daniels plays. We're not going to be robbed of Jayden-Caleb, right?! For what it's worth, the Vegas over/under is low (43.5 points), suggesting that Daniels is unlikely to play. |
| If Williams attacks this secondary, the matchup presents the best for Moore. And, on paper, it's the worst for Rome Odunze. I'm still excited to start Odunze in a couple of spots this weekend, just because I'm so bullish on him as a player. I think he may have a huge second half to the season. |
| As for the matchup, this Commanders defense is a weird one. Washington is one of just four defenses with a Cover-3 rate below 20%. That's the most-common defense in the NFL. Odunze has been the most productive Bear vs. Cover-3, no surprise, since Cover-3 typically results in more production for outside WR1 types. He has a 1.90 yard per route run rate vs. Cover-3 that drops to 1.32 vs. any other coverage type. |
| The Commanders use a lot of Cover-1 and Cover-2. Moore and Allen have seen the biggest target rate increase vs. Cover-1, while Cole Kmet has crushed Cover-2. |
| One final note on this defense -- the Commanders rank top-10 in opponent first-read target rate (5th highest), slot target rate (sixth) and outside WR target rate (10th). Opponents have not targeted the TE position much at all vs. Washington. |
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| My guess is we see targets mostly funnel to Allen and Moore, while Odunze brings a really wide range of outcomes. He could torch this secondary if Washington goes with lots of man coverage looks while playing more aggressively chasing a lead. |
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| The target share Demario Douglas while sharing the field with Drake Maye is pretty, pretty, pretty good |
| You may have noticed that I am way higher on "Pop" Douglas than consensus this week. |
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| A potential veteran waiver wire savior? |
| In the first game without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Bucs will face an Atlanta Falcons secondary that just hasn't performed up to expectation in 2024. |
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| According to the FP Data Suite, the Detroit Lions defense is the only other that has seen over 40% of opponent targets go to the slot. As you can see above, it hasn't been exclusively slot receivers to put up big production vs. this defense. Chris Godwin had a modest performance vs. Atlanta while Mike Evans found the end zone twice. |
| This is another game where I'd guess at a run-heavy script. Atlanta has pretty neutral splits in terms of opponents running/passing, but I think the Bucs are going to lean into the ground game in the immediate short-term. Vegas has Tampa listed as 2.5-point home favorites, so it's possible that the three-headed monster backfield will control this game. If taking to the air, I think Sterling Shepard is a sneaky bet for production against this zone-heavy Falcons coverage scheme. He clearly has the most savvy of the healthy remaining receivers on the roster and would be my bet to consistently find holes in zones. |
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| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Adam, Dan, and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! We do a weekly recap on Mondays and a deep dive with a guest every Thursday; you can find those on YouTube! |
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