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| Friday, October 20, 2023 |
| At halftime of last night's game, it looked like we were in line for another low-scoring game, something we've become all too familiar with this season – according to CBS Sports' research team, the under went 12-2-1 in Week 6, and 61.5% of games this season have gone under, the highest rate through six weeks since the 1991 season. You aren't imaging it – this has been an unusually low-scoring season so far. |
| But the Saints offense turned things around in the second half, pushing the Jaguars to the limit and leading to a refreshingly productive night for most of the Fantasy options – Calvin Ridley being the notable exception. I've got my thoughts on that game, and Ridley's struggles, in today's newsletter, along with all of the injury updates from around the NFL Thursday, including the latest on Christian McCaffrey and the Rams backfield, two of the biggest storylines in Fantasy heading into the weekend. |
| We'll have a final look at all the injuries you need to know about Sunday morning, along with our typical #AskFFT coverage to help you get your lineups locked in. Here's what we know right now, plus some thoughts on my favorite DFS plays for Week 7 at the bottom of today's newsletter: |
| Week 7 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: QB | RB | WRLineup Decisions from Dave RichardsWeek 7 Position Previews: QB | RB | WR | TE Jamey, Dave, Heath's RankingsMy Week 7 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TECheat Sheets: PPR | Non-PPR |
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| TNF recap: Jaguars 31, Saints 24 |
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| The big takeaway: If there's a league-winner on this Jaguars offense, it just might be Travis Etienne . He didn't have a huge game Thursday, rushing for 53 yards on 14 carries, but he scored twice, giving him seven touchdowns in seven games -- he had five all of last season. What might be even more impressive is that the passing game role continues to be there, as Etienne caught three of five passes for 24 yards, his fourth game with five targets; he had just two last season. Those extra handful of opportunities every week can be the difference between a fringe RB1 and a legitimate difference maker, especially for a runner as explosive as Etienne. Winner: Alvin Kamara . It's worth noting that, even when you have a running back as good as Kamara in the passing game, it's generally not a great sign for your offense when they are catching 12 passes in a game. It's now happened twice for Kamara. Thursday, it was fairly obviously a result of the Saints lack of faith in their offensive line, which was missing two starting tackles, but hey, we'll still take the PPR points. Kamara hasn't been a model of efficiency in the running or passing games, but he also had 17 carries in addition to his 14 targets Thursday, so the role remains incredibly valuable, even with Jamaal Williams back from IR. Kamara might be a top-five RB the rest of the way. Loser: Calvin Ridley. Ridley is starting to look like 2023's version of Gabe Davis ; a controversial figure in draft season who had a huge Week 1 and then just fizzled out. And, unlike Davis, Ridley doesn't have an injury to blame it on (that we know of, at least). Since his eight-catches-for-101-yards-and-a-touchdown showing in Week 1, Ridley has just 19 catches for 267 yards and one touchdown in his past six games. Thursday, he just couldn't consistently separate, and while it's worth noting that the Saints do have very good outside corners, Ridley used to be a guy who could get open against anyone. He just doesn't look like that guy anymore; he looks like a guy who didn't play football for two years and is about to turn 29. That time away seems to have cost him a step, and he hasn't shown he can consistently win without it. Ridley needs to prove he's worth starting at this point. He has to be behind Christian Kirk in the rankings moving forward. |
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| Week 7 injury updates |
| Quarterback |
| Deshaun Watson (shoulder) returned to practice for the first time since Week 4, when he was a surprise inactive. That doesn't mean he's going to play through this injury, and there is still a ton of uncertainty about this injury and how long it's expected to linger. I still expect PJ Walker to get the start for the Browns, and even if Watson does play, it's hard to have much confidence in him as either a passer or a runner at this point. |
| Justin Fields (thumb) hasn't been ruled out for Week 7 against the Raiders, but it seems almost assured he won't be suiting up this week – he hasn't practiced, and the Bears said he was doubtful earlier in the week. Rookie Tyson Bagent, who turned the ball over twice in replacing Fields last week, is likely to get his first NFL start, and you'd have to be pretty desperate to trust him at this point. |
| Daniel Jones (neck) continues to be listed as "limited" at practice, but that doesn't actually tell us much about his chances of playing against the Commanders. Jones still hasn't been cleared for contact, so he's just throwing at practice, and until he's cleared, he won't play. I'm assuming that won't happen in time for Sunday, so we're looking at another Tyrod Taylor start – and Taylor is in the top 20 at the position and could be a viable streamer if you're desperate. There sure didn't seem to be that much separating him and Jones last week |
| Jimmy Garoppolo (back) has already been ruled out for Week 7, but what we don't yet know is who will be starting for the Raiders. When Garoppolo missed a game earlier in the season, it was rookie Aidan O'Connell who started in Week 4 against the Chargers, going 24 for 39 for 238 yards and an interception. When Garoppolo left last week's game, veteran Bryan Hoyer went 6 for 10 for 102 yards, and I would guess he's more likely to get the start – but neither is more than a streamer QB2, even against the Bears. |
| Josh Allen (shoulder) worked up to a full practice Thursday, so it sure looks like he's going to play. That's not a surprise after Allen expressed optimism about the injury earlier in the week. He's a top-five QB every week he plays. |
| Kyler Murray (knee) isn't going to play in Week 7, but he's on the road to a return from his torn ACL, as he began practicing this week. That gives him three weeks before he has to be activated, and by all accounts, the Cardinals are going to let him play so they can see how he looks in this new offense. Joshua Dobbs has been fine as a stand-in, but the Cardinals need to see if Murray can still look like a franchise QB before they enter the draft next season, potentially armed with a top-five pick in a loaded QB class. Which is all to say, Murray has a lot on the line when he returns, and will be highly motivated to produce. I'm keeping him stashed where I can. |
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| Running back |
| Christian McCaffrey (oblique) didn't practice Thursday as the 49ers kicked off prep for Monday's game against the Vikings, but Kyle Shanahan didn't rule him out when he spoke to the media. When asked if the results of the MRI McCaffrey had this week were encouraging, Shanahan said, "I thought it was," and he went on to define McCaffrey as "day to day." At this point, I think it's likelier than not that McCaffrey doesn't play, but the fact that this one is on a Monday night definitely complicates things. Unless we get really positive reports by Sunday, you might need to avoid McCaffrey unless you have either Elijah Mitchell or Jordan Mason (or Alexander Mattison ) to replace him. If McCaffrey is out, I'd guess Mitchell will be the better Fantasy option, but both will rank in the RB3 range if McCaffrey can't go. |
| Aaron Jones (hamstring) remains limited in practice, but all indications are he is going to make his return from the injury that has cost him all but two games this season. The Packers offense badly needs him, and it sounds like they held him out last week out of an abundance of caution, so hopefully he's ready to return and be the focal point of the offense in a dream matchup against the league-worst Broncos defense. |
| David Montgomery (ribs) is not expected to play in Week 7 against the Ravens, but the Lions could have their No. 2 and 3 backs available. Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) was limited Wednesday and Thursday, so it looks like he's got a pretty good chance to play, while Craig Reynolds (hamstring/toe) was upgraded to limited Thursday after missing Wednesday's practice, so he looks like he has a chance, too. If Gibbs plays, he's a borderline top-12 RB even in a tough matchup, while Reynolds is a touchdown-or-bust RB3/4 if he's active. |
| Jeff Wilson (ribs/finger) has been a full participant in practice both days so far this week, so it sure looks like he's going to make his return from IR. That's not guaranteed, and we don't really know how much he's going to play, so you'd have to be pretty desperate to start him against a tough Eagles defense. |
| Kyren Williams (ankle) hasn't practiced this week and is expected to miss at least this week – and potentially all the way through to Week 11. The problem is, as I've already written, we just don't know what to expect from the Rams backfield, with an untested rookie and three practice squad guys in the mix. My preference is to avoid this situation for my redraft leagues, if I can. |
| Roschon Johnson (concussion) still isn't practicing, two weeks after suffering a concussion in Week 5. He could still be cleared this week, but it seems unlikely at this point, which puts D'Onta Foreman in line for a lead role again in a decent matchup against the Raiders. Foreman is an RB2, while Darrynton Evans is a desperation play after getting nine carries and one target last week. |
| Wide receiver |
| DeVonta Smith (hamstring) was upgraded to a limited practice Thursday, and he told reporters he's going to play against the Dolphins on Sunday night. "You ain't gotta worry about me," Smith said. " I'll be out there ." Whether he'll be 100% is a different question, but you're probably starting Smith if he's active. |
| Deebo Samuel (shoulder) didn't practice Thursday, but Shanahan also classified him as "day to day." This one could go to the wire, and my preference would be to sit Samuel, who has struggled to produce while dealing with injuries so far. He's in the WR3 range if he plays. |
| DK Metcalf (ribs/hip) has missed plenty of practice time this week, so it's not necessarily a huge concern that he hasn't practiced this week – he didn't practice Wednesday and Thursday of last week either, but suited up Friday and played his typical role. But the hip injury is a new one, so we'll just note his absence so far and hope it isn't anything to be too concerned about. |
| Diontae Johnson (hamstring) has practiced in full each day so far this week and looks in line to make his return from IR. It's going to be really interesting to see what this Steelers offense looks like with him back, because George Pickens has seen a larger target share and a more varied route tree than expected with Johnson out; with Johnson's return, does that keep up, or do they go back to using Pickens more as just a deep threat? I'd be surprised if he went right back to his 2022 usage, but I also do expect a healthy Johnson to earn more targets more consistently, at least. Both are in the WR2/3 range for Week 7. |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) has been limited this week, and while he doesn't matter much for Fantasy, his status could impact how useful Kendrick Bourne is – Bourne's best games have come with Smith-Schuster or DeVante Parker inactive. Bourne is a WR3/4 candidate for me this week. |
| Tight end |
| Greg Dulcich (hamstring) hasn't practiced this week, so it looks like he's unlikely to play. It's bad timing for Dulcich, who suffered a setback with the hamstring in his first game back from IR last week. |
| Hunter Henry (ankle) has missed both days of practice, so if you've been relying on him this season, you need to have an alternative ready to go. Though, with just seven catches for 75 yards over the past four games, you should probably have been looking for another option even before this injury. See if Logan Thomas, Jonnu Smith, or Michael Mayer are available in your league. |
| Dalton Kincaid (concussion) has practiced in full both days this week and looks like he'll make his return after missing last week's game. He's just a streamer. |
| Top DFS picks |
| Before you read my rankings, make sure you head over to SportsLine, where Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs have their rankings and top plays available to peruse at your leisure. They'll help you out quite a bit. |
| Based on my projections and analysis for Week 7, here are my top stack targets and my favorite plays at each position, with an eye on tournament plays: |
| Top Stacks |
| Chargers @KCSeahawks vs. ARIPackers @DEN |
| The Chargers implied total of 21.25 is only the 11th-highest of Week 7, which I think probably reflects some concerns about how Justin Herbert played last week, as well as how well the Chiefs defense has played. Herbert played poorly in Week 6, for sure – I legitimately think it was one of the worst games he's ever played – but I remain very impressed by how he's looked in this offense overall, and I feel pretty good about his chances of bouncing back. The only problem with a stack is, while you can and should obviously pair him with Keenan Allen, I'm not sure who else I would go with besides Josh Palmer. That's going to be a pretty popular stack, I'd bet, so you really need them to hit if you're going that way. |
| Top QBs |
| DraftKings |
| Geno Smith vs. ARI $6000Sam Howell @NYG $5500 Jordan Love @DEN $5800 |
| I'm just going to keep going back to Geno Smith, who just hasn't been great this season, especially throwing into the end zone and on deep passes, as I wrote about in yesterday's newsletter. I still believe he's an above-average talent, and I still think he has one of the best receiving groups in football, so I'm still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. For what it's worth, it's not like the Seahawks offense is struggling – they're eighth in scoring, after finishing ninth last season – they're just finishing drives off with rushing touchdowns more often than they did a year ago. I'll keep the faith in a great matchup. |
| FanDuel |
| Matthew Stafford vs. PIT $6700Geno Smith vs. ARI $7000Lamar Jackson vs. DET $8000 |
| Jackson is playing better than his numbers, and he's the No. 7 QB in FanDuel scoring, so the numbers aren't bad. He's had 10 passes dropped, which is a top-10 mark, but he's also the only QB to have multiple passes dropped in the end zone, and has had other long plays and potential scores spoiled by drops, too. That happens to every QB, of course, but it's impacted Jackson more than most, because the pass volume is never huge for him. We haven't seen the best of him yet, and I'm betting he'll have a fairly low roster rate for this one. It might be a decent pivot on an elite player. |
| Top RBs |
| DraftKings |
| Aaron Jones @DEN $6800Bijan Robinson @TB $7300Rachaad White vs. ATL $5100 D'Onta Foreman vs. LV $4800Austin Ekeler @KC $8600 |
| I don't want to imply that Jones' return will be a panacea for the Packers offense, but it's clear they miss what he brings to every facet of the game. He's just a much better player than AJ Dillon, and the Packers offense has been sorely missing the kind of easy throws Jones turned into long gains in Week 1 before his injury. I think he's going to be a focal point against the worst defense in the NFL, and has a chance to be the highest scoring RB on the slate. |
| FanDuel |
| Bijan Robinson @TB $7500Zach Evans vs. PIT $4800Josh Jacobs @CHI $8000 Austin Ekeler @KC $9400Rachaad White vs. ATL $6100 |
| I'm trying to steer clear of Evans in my season-long leagues, but I think he makes some sense as a tournament play for DFS. Evans brings solid size and athleticism to the table, and he was a productive player in college as both a rusher and receiver, albeit rarely as a featured back – he had 20 or more carries in a game just three times in 27 games. I think this backfield is likely to be a mess, and when you're talking about a season-long Fantasy league, where winning each matchup matters a lot, I'm trying to avoid using him if I can. But, in a DFS tournament, where my chances of winning are relatively slim anyways, the upside if Evans really is the lead back this week is worth chasing at this price. |
| Top WRs |
| DraftKings |
| Wan'Dale Robinson vs. WAS $3800Kendrick Bourne vs. BUF $4400Curtis Samuel @NYG $4000 Drake London @TB $5100Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. ARI $3900 |
| Robinson has been at a 60% snap share or better three games in a row, and while the targets he's seeing have mostly been of the low-quality, short-area variety, he's starting to see decent volume – six in Week 4 and 5, and then eight in Week 6 with Tyrod Taylor. Robinson hasn't shown much after-the-catch playmaking yet in his return from a torn ACL, but the Giants are giving him the chances, and his role should continue to grow from here. I like stashing him on my bench in season-long, and I think he's a viable play in DFS with his price still pretty reasonable. |
| FanDuel |
| Cooper Kupp vs. PIT $9700Puka Nacua vs. PIT $7300 Amon-Ra St. Brown @BAL $8200Keenan Allen @KC $9200Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. ARI $4900 |
| Smith-Njigba didn't have the breakout we were hoping for last week coming out of the bye, but he did see his snap and route shares grow to season-high marks, and he very easily could have had the breakout game if Geno had seen him on a couple of plays where he was open down the field. Smith-Njigba remains a must-stash option, and I'm going to keep throwing him in my DFS lineups when he's this cheap until the breakout comes. It's worth noting, last week was the first time he played without a protective covering on the wrist he had surgery on just before the season. |
| Top TEs |
| DraftKings |
| Michael Mayer @CHI $2700Kyle Pitts @TB $4000Sam LaPorta @BAL $5300 |
| The Raiders have come out and made Mayer a focal point in their past few games, and it's pretty clear they want to get him going. Too much of this offense has been concentrated in the hands of Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers , and Josh Jacobs, and Mayer emerging could make a big difference for this entire offense. He's the 22nd-most expensive TE on the DraftKings slate, compared to 17th at FanDuel, so if you want to play him, this is the place to do it. |
| FanDuel |
| Sam LaPorta @BAL $6500Travis Kelce vs. LAC $8500Kyle Pitts @TB $5600 |
| When things were going poorly for Pitts, I refused to move him as far down in my rankings as many of you might have wanted, and the last few weeks have shown why. The Falcons offense has operated more like a typical NFL offense, and it's unlocked some of the upside that had been hidden earlier in the season. Pitts is still one of the most dangerous weapons at the tight end position, and while his downfield-oriented role in a low-volume passing game makes him frustrating to trust, it also potentially makes him the right play in a tournament. |
| Sample DraftKings lineup |
| QB Geno Smith vs. ARI $6000RB Aaron Jones @DEN $6800RB Jahmyr Gibbs @BAL $6300WR Cooper Kupp vs. PIT $9500WR Tyler Lockett vs. ARI $6000 WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. ARI $3900TE Michael Mayer @CHI $2700Terry McLaurin @NYG $5400DST Browns @IND $3300 |
| Sample FanDuel lineup |
| QB Matthew Stafford vs. PIT $6700RB Bijan Robinson @TB $7500RB Zach Evans vs. PIT $4800WR Cooper Kupp vs. PIT $9700WR Keenan Allen @KC $9200WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. ARI $4900TE Kyle Pitts @TB $5600FLEX Aaron Jones @DEN $7700 DST Colts vs. CLE $3800 |
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