| | | | Wednesday, October 12, 2022 | | We'll get some updates on the injuries you need to know about for Week 6 in tomorrow's newsletter after the first day of practice for most of the league passes. But we did get some tidbits you need to know about. So before we get to Heath Cummings' Week 6 previews and some buy-low and sell-high targets for you, here's the news from Tuesday you need to know about: | | Damien Harris (hamstring) will "likely miss" multiple games -- Rhamondre Stevenson played like a star in Week 5, and he could be in line for a massive role for the next few weeks. Harris is going to have more tests, but don't expect to get much confirmation on his status -- seeing as he plays for the Patriots, Harris might be listed as questionable this week even if he has no chance of playing. They tend not to tip their hand. Jaylen Warren will continue to get more playing time -- Warren played a season-high 51% of the snaps in Week 5, though the blowout nature of the loss to the Bills surely played a part in that. However, with Najee Harris continuing to struggle with efficiency, any loss in volume is especially problematic. He's more like an RB2 or even RB3 for Week 6. Russell Wilson (shoulder) is expected to play this week -- Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett told reporters Wilson "should be ready to play" against the Chargers despite dealing with a strained lat that he's been playing through. He had a platelet-rich plasma injection but isn't expected to need surgery. Maybe this explains why he's been so off to start the season, but if it's going to be an ongoing issue, that won't make it any easier to trust him. | | We'll have more updates tomorrow -- plus, Jamey Eisenberg's Start 'Em & Sit 'Em calls later today -- but for now let's get to today's newsletter, where we're previewing each position for Week 6 and talking trade targets. Make sure you check out Dave Richard's Trade Values Chart if you're looking to make a trade this week, of course. And, to get your questions included in the newsletter moving forward, send them to [email protected] with "#AskFFT" as the subject line. | | And now, here's Wednesday's newsletter. | | | 🔍Week 6 Position Previews
| | | | Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know about and our expert consensus rankings before you go read Heath's full breakdowns: | | QB Preview | | "Geno Smith remains one of the most pleasant surprises in Fantasy Football this season. He leads the NFL with a 75.2% completion percentage and a 113.2 passer rating. And while I'm not certain he'll remain a starter all year long, there's no doubt you should start him in Week 6 against a Cardinals defense that has been mediocre at best this season. In fact, I would start him over the opposing quarterback in that game, Kyler Murray." | On a bye: Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, Jared Goff and Davis Mills.Injuries: Dak Prescott (thumb), Tua Tagovailoa (concussion), Jameis Winston (back), Mac Jones (ankle), Russell Wilson (shoulder), Carson Wentz (shoulder), Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) and Baker Mayfield (ankle).
Number to know: 58.4 - Passer rating for Skylar Thompson in relief for the Dolphins. It's hard to confidently start your Dolphins if Thompson gets the start versus the Vikings.
Matchup that matters: Geno Smith vs. ARI (24th vs. QB)Waiver add/streamer: "While I do have some long-term concerns, Smith is on fire right now and I'll start him until he's not."Stash: "Don't hold Pickett's Week 5 performance against him. The Bills have arguably the best defense in football. Pickett's schedule is better in the second half of the season, so hold onto him if your quarterback has a late bye." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Josh Allen, BUFPatrick Mahomes, KC Lamar Jackson, BALJalen Hurts, PHI Justin Herbert, LAC Kyler Murray, ARITom Brady, TBGeno Smith, SEAJoe Burrow, CIN Aaron Rodgers, GBKirk Cousins, MINCarson Wentz, WAS | | *My QB Rankings | | | | RB Preview | | "Week 6 marks the beginning of the bye season, with the Raiders, Titans, Texans, and Lions on a bye. At running back, this week is particularly painful because Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Jamaal Williams, and Dameon Pierce have all been ranked as top 24 running backs. With all the injuries we're dealing with, they will be missed. | | "One of the results of this is that some of the bigger busts have found their way back into the top 24 of the projections at the bottom of this article." | On a bye: D'Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, Dameon Pierce, Rex Burkhead, Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry.Injuries: Jonathan Taylor (ankle), D'Andre Swift (shoulder), James Conner (ribs), Damien Harris (hamstring), Rashaad Penny (ankle), Cordarrelle Patterson (knee), Nyheim Hines (concussion), Elijah Mitchell (knee), Darrel Williams (knee), Justice Hill (hamstring), Gus Edwards (knee), Damien Williams (ribs), Tyrion Davis-Price (ankle) and Boston Scott (ribs).
Number to know: 100 -- Rhamondre Stevenson played 100% of the RB snaps once Damien Harris went down in Week 5.
Matchup that matters: Tyler Allgeier vs. SF (4th vs. RB)Waiver add: "Kenneth Walker is rostered in too many leagues for this space, but I'm making an exception for a couple of reasons. One, I wanted to tell you that if he's available, he's worth all your FAB. Two, he's available in up to half of leagues on other sites, so go check just in case. I expect Walker to be a top-20 running back rest of season and he has top-12 upside."Stash: "Jaylen Warren. Even Mike Tomlin has acknowledged that they need to play Jaylen Warren more. It appears Warren has taken over the third-down role, and he could see even more work moving forward. He's certainly the most explosive Steelers' back this season." | | Consensus Expert Top 24 | | Austin Ekeler, LACSaquon Barkley, NYG Christian McCaffrey, CARAlvin Kamara, NO Nick Chubb, CLE Leonard Fournette, TBRhamondre Stevenson, NEDalvin Cook, MIN Breece Hall, NYJJeff Wilson, SF Joe Mixon, CIN Aaron Jones, GBDavid Montgomery, CHI Kenneth Walker III, SEAMiles Sanders, PHI Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC Melvin Gordon, DENRaheem Mostert, MIA Eno Benjamin, ARIDevin Singletary, BUF Kareem Hunt, CLE J.K. Dobbins, BALEzekiel Elliott, DALNajee Harris, PIT | | *My RB Rankings | | | | WR Preview | | "In 2021 Deebo Samuel finished as WR3 overall due to an extremely valuable role (121 targets and 59 carries) and crazy efficiency (eight rushing touchdowns, league-best 18.2 yards per catch). At the start of 2022, the regression we expected has hit hard, and it looks as though the role is changing as well." | On a bye: Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, Robert Woods, Brandin Cook and Nico CollinsInjuries: Tyreek Hill (foot), Tee Higgins (ankle), Michael Thomas (toe), Keenan Allen (hamstring), Chris Olave (concussion), Drake London (knee), Rashod Bateman (foot), Jahan Dotson (hamstring), Julio Jones (undisclosed), Jarvis Landry (ankle), Isaiah McKenzie (concussion), Treylon Burks (toe), Kadarius Toney (hamstring), Christian Watson (hamstring), D.J. Chark (ankle), Kenny Golladay (knee), Wan'Dale Robinson (knee) and Nelson Agholor (hamstring).Number to know: 58 -- DK Metcalf has never posted more than 58 receiving yards against the Cardinals. We expect that to change in Week 6.
Matchup that matters: Gabe Davis @KC (26th vs. WR) Waiver add: "Jakobi Meyers . Meyers should be rostered and started every week in full PPR leagues. In that format, he's worth up to 15% of FAB. In half-PPR he's still a good add and a weekly WR3. You might need to start him this week in non-PPR because of the byes, but that's his worst format for sure." Stash: "Khalil Shakir. Both Shakir and Isaiah McKenzie need to be rostered in most leagues. One of them will be a boom-or-bust flex this week against the Chiefs, the other will be a very good stash, an injury away from being a big part of Josh Allen's offense. If McKenzie misses another week, Shakir becomes the top priority, and I think he has the most upside as well." | | Consensus Expert Top 24 | | Cooper Kupp, LARStefon Diggs, BUF Justin Jefferson, MINMarquise Brown, ARI Ja'Marr Chase, CIN Mike Evans, TBMike Williams, LACTyreek Hill, MIADeebo Samuel, SFDK Metcalf, SEA Courtland Sutton, DENCeeDee Lamb, DAL Tyler Lockett, SEAA.J. Brown, PHI Michael Pittman, IND Chris Godwin, TBDeVonta Smith, PHI Christian Kirk, JACAmari Cooper, CLEGabe Davis, BUFJakobi Meyers, NE Curtis Samuel, WASDiontae Johnson, PIT Allen Lazard, GB | | *My WR Rankings | | TE Preview | | "I thought the tight end position was a mess at the beginning of the year, I had no idea how bad it was about to get. | | "Through the first five weeks of the season, only nine tight ends have scored even 10 PPR Fantasy points per game. That includes Taysom Hill, who only has one catch on the season." | | On a bye: Darren Waller, T.J. Hockenson and Austin Hooper.Injuries of note: Darren Waller (hamstring), Kyle Pitts (hamstring), Pat Freiermuth (concussion), Dalton Schultz (knee), Dawson Knox (foot), Logan Thomas (calf) and Cameron Brate (concussion).Number to know: 90.4 - Cade Otton had a 90.4% route participation in Week 5, a 35.7% increase from Week 4. Matchup that matters: George Kittle @ATL (28th vs. TE)Streamer: "Taysom Hill . Hill is far more valuable in non-PPR because he only has one catch all season. But he's a starter in both formats due to his upside and red zone involvement. Just don't look for him in the projections below because he's broken my process. I wasn't properly accounting for running tight ends." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Mark Andrews, BALTravis Kelce, KC Zach Ertz, ARIDallas Goedert, PHI Tyler Higbee, LAR David Njoku, CLEHayden Hurst, CIN Gerald Everett, LACGeorge Kittle, SFEvan Engram, JACTaysom Hill, NO Irv Smith, MIN | | *My TE Rankings | | Week 6 Trade Talk | | Typically on Wednesdays, I do a trade mailbag where I answer some of your questions with the help of Dave's Trade Values Chart. But every few weeks, I like to give some more generalized advice, and that's what today is about. Here are four players to try to buy and four you should be selling right now. | | Three to buy-low | | Kyler Murray – Murray continues to stagnate as a passer, and he's down to 5.8 yards per attempt this season, the lowest mark of his career. That's at least in part due to an offense that just hasn't been able to do much down the field – his average intended air yards per attempt is down to 6.1, the lowest mark in the league. He's still a top-10 QB, however, thanks to his solid rushing production and high passing volume. I'm expecting the impending return of DeAndre Hopkins in Week 7 from his suspension to be a big boon for Murray, as it will give him a better red zone and intermediate option than someone like Zach Ertz, who is simply getting way too many looks right now for an NFL offense to function properly. Week 6 may be your last chance to buy Murray before he takes off. Kyle Pitts – The universe heard everyone who was saying "I'd start anyone over Kyle Pitts" last week and decided to reward us with the ugliest selection of tight ends I've ever seen in Fantasy for Week 6. Are you all happy? Look, Pitts has the odds stacked against him in a Falcons offense that wants nothing more than to run the ball all day, and he has more competition for targets in the form of Drake London than he did last season once Calvin Ridley's season was over. But, at a position where people are relying on Zach Wilson's No. 5 target or a de facto running back with as many catches as pass attempts, I'm going to bet on the 22-year-old who was the highest drafted tight end ever who put up 1,000 yards as a 21-year-old. At least there's some upside there beyond "Well, I hope he catches a touchdown." Diontae Johnson – Johnson and rookie QB Kenny Pickett haven't been on the same page often enough yet, but it's still early, and I'm optimistic about his chances. Why's that? Well, because Johnson has continued to do what he always does: Earn targets at a high rate. Through the first game-and-a-half of Pickett's career, Johnson has earned a target on 24% of Pickett's passes, the highest of any Steelers wide receiver. Pickett, as with every QB Johnson has played with before this, is going to lean on Johnson, and that's going to make Johnson a must-start Fantasy WR moving forward. I have no concerns here, really. | | One to buy-high | | Marquise Brown – This might seem counterintuitive with DeAndre Hopkins coming back to usurp Brown's spot as the Cardinals No. 1 receiver. However, it's worth remembering that, while Hopkins was still quite efficient last season, the Cardinals were at their best spreading the ball around and focusing on him in the red zone. I think Hopkins will be the No. 1 option here, but probably not to the extent he used to be in Houston. That should still leave Brown in line for a strong target share in a high-volume offense, and I would expect some efficiency gains from Brown, who is averaging just 11.0 yards per catch. He might not be a top-10 WR moving forward, but believe me, nobody is valuing Brown as a top-10 WR moving forward. I still think he's going to be a must-start Fantasy WR, probably a top-20 option, so buying right before Hopkins returns might be a really good idea. | | Three to sell-high | | Allen Lazard – Lazard has either a touchdown or 100 yards in each game so far. He also has more than 45 yards in just one of his first four games. How you feel about Lazard now probably depends on how you felt about him coming into the season, and coming into the season, I thought he was a touchdown-dependent, low-target share wide receiver, and that's what he's been. If he keeps scoring a touchdown in 75% of his games, he's going to make you feel pretty dumb for selling him, but I look at a guy averaging 52.3 yards per game and see a WR3 who is going to disappoint you more often than not. If someone views him as more than that, it's a perfect chance to make a trade.Miles Sanders – Sanders is on pace for 10 touchdowns and is averaging 14.6 PPR points per game, which is pretty good, but hardly exceptional. Which makes sense – he's a pretty good, but not an exceptional player. Sanders very well could score 10 touchdowns in this Eagles offense, but he has an awful lot of competition for goal-line carries, and the Eagles have shown in the past they aren't necessarily going to force-feed him touches in close. He doesn't catch many passes, either, so Sanders really does need to score a lot of touchdowns to be a difference maker in Fantasy. I think what we've seen so far isn't necessarily a best-case scenario for him, but it's not far off.Tyler Higbee – It's hard to suggest selling Higbee when he's averaging nearly 10 targets per game and there are so few good tight ends out there. But I always struggle to buy players like him who are succeeding almost entirely due to the dysfunction of the offense they're in. Higbee's targets are almost entirely the result of the Rams having no better options, especially down the field. And, hey, they have no better options, at least until Van Jefferson is healthy, so they might just need to keep trying to nickel-and-dime their way down the field with 4-yard throws to Higbee in the flats. But this offense isn't working, and if they're going to figure things out, it probably isn't going to be with Higbee getting 25% of the targets. I don't know what the path forward for the Rams offense is, but if I got a chance to move Higbee for Pitts straight up, I'd definitely do that. | | One to sell-low | | James Robinson – The past two weeks have really taken the shine off the feel-good story of Robinson's season, and Week 5's poor showing against a very bad Texans defense was especially disappointing. I think the problem is that Travis Etienne is just a better player than Robinson right now. Robinson is more reliable – he'll hit the right holes, make the right blitz pickups, and won't drop the ball or run the wrong route – which is going to keep him on the field, but Etienne just has more juice, as the kids say. You can see it in something like NFL Next Gen Stats' Rush Yards Over Expected stat, where Robinson has 1 yard over expectations on 69 carries, compared to 38 on 44 carries for Etienne. Etienne's just the more explosive player, and as he continues to get comfortable and figures out more of the little things, I think he's going to keep cutting into Robinson's role. If I could avoid having to rely on Robinson as a starter moving forward, I would relish the opportunity to move him. | | | | | | | | 24/7 Sports News | | The Early Edge | ✔Scores & Highlights
✔Fantasy and Betting Advice
✔Interviews with Top Athletes
CBS Sports HQ has you covered. Stream anywhere, anytime, on any device.
Watch Now
| | Looking for the best picks against the spread, sharp action on the total and props you can take to the ticket window? Join The Coach, Jonathan Coachman, on the Early Edge as he speaks with the best handicappers to preview every day’s biggest games.
Listen Now
|
| | | | |
|
|
