| | | | Tuesday, October 6, 2020 | | Winning in Fantasy football is often about overcoming obstacles, and the 2020 season has had no shortage of those. Luckily, the Patriots-Chiefs game Monday went off without a hitch, a rare bit of good news in a season that has rarely gone according to plan so far. | | Unfortunately, there was a still bad news Monday, as we learned the extent of a few running back injuries. Before we look at the waiver wire for Week 5 and recap both games from last night, here's a quick update on the big injury news from Monday: | | Nick Chubb (knee) — Chubb will likely miss the next six weeks and was placed on injured reserve with an MCL injury. Kareem Hunt should be the top option in Week 5 and beyond, and is a potential top-five Fantasy back now. Austin Ekeler (hamstring) — Will join Chubb on IR with a Grade 2 hamstring strain that will likely cost him 4-6 weeks, at least. We've got replacement options for both in our look at the top waiver wire priorities later in the newsletter. Julio Jones (hamstring) — Played in Week 4, but couldn't make it through the whole game and didn't return from the locker room at halftime. This could be a lingering injury. Sony Michel (quad) — Placed on IR. It's not clear if this is a truly long-term issue, but he'll be eligible to return in Week 8 — though potential to a limited role after Damien Harris' breakout Monday. | | Of course, it wasn't all bad news: Cam Akers (ribs) is expected to return in Week 5, while Kenyan Drake's late exit from Week 4 is not a concern, according to Kliff Kingsbury. So... actually, Akers' return could further complicate the Rams backfield, while Drake continues to split work with Chase Edmonds in the most frustrating way possible, and that shouldn't change in Week 5. | | Like I said: It's all about overcoming obstacles. Hopefully Week 5 won't present any more unexpected ones, but we know it will. In today's newsletter, I've got waiver wire priorities from Jamey Eisenberg to help fill any holes you might have, plus a round up of some key numbers you need to know from the first quarter of the season and a recap of Monday night's NFL action. | | | | Week 5 Waiver Wire Priorities | | | | Damien Harris, RB, Patriots (35%) — Harris came off IR and immediately served as the Patriots top back. Rex Burkhead and James White were still a part of the game plan, but Harris topped the 100-yard mark and showed the ability to run between the tackles and make big plays. With Michel injured, Harris could be a starting Fantasy RB the rest of the way. D'Ernest Johnson, RB, Browns (0%) — With Chubb sidelined, Johnson figures to see a healthy role on a Browns team that wants to run the ball early and often. He won't be the lead back, but he can be a flex option in the right matchup. Justin Jackson, RB, Chargers (7%) — The assumption here is Joshua Kelley will be the lead back with Ekeler sidelined, but the Chargers will use two backs and Jackson should carve out a solid role moving forward. And it's not out of the question for Jackson to take on the bulk of the passing work, if he doesn't just outright win the job. Chase Edmonds, RB, Cardinals: (60%) — It seems like Drake is going to be fine for Week 5, but Edmonds is already cutting into the passing game role out of the backfield, and Drake hasn't exactly impressed this season, so Edmonds could carve out an even bigger role even if Drake is healthy. Dalton Schultz, TE, Cowboys 63%) — Now, I know there aren't enough good tight ends that you can continue to ignore Schultz and the role he has in this offense. Schultz has 24 targets in three games since Blake Jarwin's injury, and looks like a must-start TE. Just go add him. | | Head here to check out the rest of Jamey's list of the top priorities for Week 5. | | | | 15 Numbers to know | | | | Each week, I break down every game on the schedule, identifying winners and losers, plays you might have missed, and a number to know for each game. You can read the recaps of Monday's games below, but I wanted to highlight 10 numbers you need to know from the NFL season so far, plus five more to know from Week 5. | | All numbers from NFL Game Book or TruMedia's database. | | Josh Allen's average depth of target (how far from the line of scrimmage the pass traveled) is 7.66 yards, 17th in the NFL. Last season he was sixth in the NFL at 9.25 yards and he led the NFL as a rookie at 10.95. The Bills are putting him in better situations, and he's taken a big leap forward as a result. In this case, being less aggressive is probably better for Allen — especially because he's picking his spots to take those deep shots better now. Kirk Cousins and Tom Brady lead the NFL in completions on passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield with 13. They are also both in the top four in attempts, but Brady has also had three deep attempts dropped, the most in the NFL. He's not Jameis Winston, but Brady is taking the shots when they are there. And they were there in Week 4 — he attempted eight deep passes. Kyler Murray is averaging just 5.07 yards per target to non-DeAndre Hopkins players. This passing game just isn't humming yet, and if Murray wasn't on pace for 1,000 rushing yards we'd be talking a lot more about how disappointing things have been. Top five in snaps among RB: Ezekiel Elliott (277), Joe Mixon (201), Devin Singletary (194), Melvin Gordon (192), Josh Jacobs (187). Singletary and Gordon have benefitted from injuries to the guys they were expected to split time with, but Mixon and Jacobs are simply coming off the field less. That's exactly what we wanted to see, and we saw why that matters for Mixon in Week 4. David Johnson has played 39 snaps (21% of his total snaps) lined up out wide or in the slot, most of any running back. He has also run the second-most routes among all RB and leads all running backs with 5.36 air yards per target. He's being used more as a true receiver than any back in football, but the targets haven't been there yet. Let's see if the coaching change gets him more involved. Josh Jacobs has run 75 routes with 17 targets four games. Jacobs ran just 156 routes and had 27 targets last season, so he's nearly doubling that pace in both regards. Like I said, it's what we wanted to see. Jacobs hasn't been great the last three games, but there is no reason to worry about him. You just saw what happened with Mixon when people were starting to panic about him; Jacobs is in the exact same spot in an even better offense. Just 11 of 19 targets to Miles Sanders have been on target. Sanders isn't alone here, as Carson Wentz has the seventh-lowest on-target rate among quarterbacks. There have been numerous plays left on the field due to errant passes for Sanders, but the breakout could be coming if Wentz figures things out. Mike Evans ranks 44th in the NFL in air yards per target at 10.0. He was fourth in the NFL with 15.06 ADoT in 2019, so that part of his game isn't quite there yet. Plus, Brady is spreading the ball around, so Evans' target share is down quite a bit, too. The upside in his role isn't quite there yet, though he's made up for it by being Brady's favorite goal-line option. I'm still a little worried Evans won't quite have as much value as we hoped. A.J. Green has the second-lowest yards per target of any player with at least 33 targets through his team's first four games since 1992. If you're looking for a silver lining, Vincent Jackson had a similar slow start in 2014 — 13 catches, 134 yards, on 35 targets — and still finished with 1,000 yards. Personally, I'm fine cutting Green this week. The Cowboys are averaging 19.88 seconds between plays, the lowest in the NFL by far; the Falcons are second at 23.8 seconds. The Packers entered Monday dead last at 30.94 seconds, though the Jaguars have been the slowest team in neutral situations — essentially when teams aren't playing from behind or nursing a lead. | | And five more numbers to know from Week 4: | | Rams RB snaps: Malcolm Brown had 35, Darrell Henderson had just 22. Clearly, the Rams trust Brown in passing situations more than anyone else, and that's been clear all season. What was surprising was that Henderson also saw fewer carries than Brown. With Akers' return looming, it's hard to view anyone here as more than a flex option. Joe Mixon ran 24 routes and was targeted six times, compared to just five routes with no targets for Giovani Bernard. This was probably more about the Bengals being in the lead for once, but as with his overall role, it's something to watch. The trend so far has been more routes and targets for Mixon overall, but with Bernard still mixing in enough on third downs and in hurry-up situations to frustrate Fantasy players. George Kittle has the fourth-most receiving yards at the tight end position. You will recall, he has missed two of four games. He's pretty good. David Montgomery played 86% of the Bears snaps and earned six targets in Week 4, both of which are career-high numbers. With no Tarik Cohen, Montgomery should have a huge role the rest of the season. I'm trying to buy him as we speak. Jerick McKinnon played 66 snaps, while Jeff Wilson played just six. McKinnon won't remain the lead back when Raheem Mostert is healthy enough to play, but he's more than proven he can handle a significant role, and he isn't going away as long as he can stay healthy. | | | | Recapping both Monday games | | | | Chiefs 26-Patriots 10 | | The Chiefs didn't need to do much on offense, as the Patriots offense mostly sputtered without Cam Newton. | | Winner: Damien Harris. Harris made his season debut and proved worth the wait, rushing for 100 yards on 17 carries, including a long run of 41 yards. He wasn't involved in the passing game, and with White and Burkhead still playing significant roles, that probably won't change. But, we know the Patriots want to run the ball no matter who is under center, and if Harris is the lead option on the ground, he's going to get a lot of work. Loser: Julian Edelman. With no Newton, Edelman tied with N'Keal Harry for third on the team in targets with just six. He caught three of them for 35 yards and has just 58 yards over his last two games. When Newton is cleared to return, Edelman should benefit, but this offense probably isn't going to be good enough for Edelman to be a useful Fantasy option without him. One thing you might have missed: The Patriots offense is probably going to be one you target when looking for streaming DST with Newton out, but the Chiefs did get a bit lucky in this one — Tyrann Mathieu's pick-six was caught off deflection by a rare drop by Edelman. | | Packers 30-Falcons 16 | | Winners: Robert Tonyan. That's three games in a row with a touchdown for Tonyan, who scored three Monday night. He had his most complete game yet, hauling in six passes on as many targets for 98 yards to go along with the three scores. The big yardage and season-high in targets was probably the result of Davante Adams' and Allen Lazard's absence, but Tonyan has Rodgers' trust in the red zone, and that's a good thing to have. Even when Adams returns, Tonyan should be third or fourth in line for targets, making him a viable starting tight end. After all, if you've gotta hope for a touchdown from someone, the guy catching passes from Rodgers is a pretty good option. The only problem? The Packers are on bye in Week 5. Losers: Matt Ryan. Sure, Julio Jones didn't play the second half and Calvin Ridley clearly wasn't at 100%, but Ryan just didn't look great in this one, and that's been a trend for most of the season so far. He'll be better when his top weapons get healthy, but Ryan also was weirdly hesitant to pull the trigger when guys were open Monday; like he didn't have trust they would come down with it. The upcoming schedule (vs. CAR, @MIN, vs. DET, @CAR) is soft enough that you're still starting Ryan, most likely, but this was a tough showing. One thing you might have missed: The worst moment might have been when Ryan hesitated to hit an open Calvin Ridley in the end zone and then underthrew him, allowing a defender to knock the ball out. That cost Ridley his only catch of the game — and it cost me two separate Fantasy matchups, to boot. Ridley should be better in Week 5 after missing much of practice with a calf and ankle injury, but Jones leaving at halftime was a bad sign for his chances of getting over this hamstring injury. One more note ... We saw the Packers get the running backs involved in the passing game, with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams combining for 10 catches, 135 yards, and a touchdown. That included several passes well beyond the line of scrimmage, something we saw often when Adams was out last year — and rarely otherwise. In the four games Adams missed last season, Jones had 22 catches for 280 yards and three touchdowns, while Williams had 11 catches for 72 yards and three scores of his own in just three games; they combined for 55 catches, 375 yards, and two touchdowns the rest of the season. I'd like to see that become more of a consistent part of the offense even when Adams comes back, but I'm not hopeful. | | | | | | | | 24/7 Sports News | | Parlay Pick'em | Want your sports news and highlights straight without the noise? Stream CBS Sports HQ on Roku, Amazon Fire TV, Apple TV, and more!
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