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| Monday, October 2, 2023 |
| Bye weeks are a fact of life, but they're something most Fantasy players don't really give too much though to while drafting, and for good reason. Too much can change between August and when the bye weeks actually come to pass to worry about them too much. That's a problem for the you of tomorrow to worry about! |
| Well, it's tomorrow, and we've got some stuff to worry about. Week 5 is the first week of bye weeks, which means the Fantasy Football landscape is about to take a big weekly hit, and the first absences are going to come in the form of the Browns, Chargers, Seahawks, and Buccaneers. |
| Austin Ekeler. Keenan Allen. Kenneth Walker. DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper. Yeah, no big deal. We don't need those guys. |
| In this afternoon's newsletter, I've got my rankings for the first week of byes to help you set your lineups, but first: We might actually be getting some big-name players back the same week all these byes are hitting. Jonathan Taylor is going to return to practice Wednesday, Colts coach Shane Steichen told reporters today, while Cooper Kupp is expected to practice this week as well. |
| So, before we get to the rankings for Week 5, I've got some thoughts on how to approach Kupp and Taylor, both for Week 5 and, more importantly, beyond: |
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| How to handle Taylor, Kupp's returns |
| Taylor is working his way back from offseason ankle surgery, but it's not entirely clear how much of his absence is actually because of that. Which makes his story a bit trickier to break down than Kupp's. |
| With Kupp, it's simple: He's returning from a hamstring injury that has kept him off the field since training camp. He tried to return from the injury already in the leadup to Week 1 and suffered a setback that ultimately landed him on IR, so I expect the Rams to be very cautious with Kupp's return. The emergence of Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell as viable weapons in the passing game should help them remain patient, and as such, I'd be pretty surprised if Kupp returned in Week 5 against the Eagles – I think Week 6 against the Cardinals is much more likely. |
| With Taylor, though … he might be completely healthy right now. He might have been pretty close to 100% back in Week 1, which gets into the question of how much his placement on the Physically Unable to Perform list was truly because he couldn't go, vs. his well-publicized trade demands. |
| Steichen told reporters Taylor might be able to play in Week 5 against the Titans, and I think there's a decent chance of it. He's been working out with the team's rehab staff over the past couple of weeks, and Steichen said, "He's in good shape" Monday. Obviously, there's a difference between being in shape and being in football shape, especially for a guy who hasn't played or practiced since Dec. 17 of last season. |
| So, even if Taylor does return this week, I'd expect it to be in a timeshare with Zack Moss. He should be the lead back, but he probably won't dominate playing time right away, which would make both RB3s, especially against a tough Titans defense. But I can't say Taylor would be an automatic sit – he's the kind of player who might need one carry and one hole to be worth starting. |
| The key thing for both Taylor and Kupp will be avoiding setbacks as they work their way back to full speed, which is why my preference might be for neither to rush back for Week 5. I'd like to have them back, of course – I roster both in several leagues – but I'd rather them take their time now to make sure they can be at 100% moving forward. |
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| Because I still think both backs can be truly elite Fantasy options. We're seeing it with their absences, where the Colts offense has made Zack Moss look like a must-start back after years of looking like just a guy in Buffalo. Shane Steichen has installed a lot of the same principles that made Philadelphia such a dynamic offense, and Anthony Richardson looks like a legitimate star in the making, so Taylor could be stepping back into a role that could make him a top-five RB. |
| As for Kupp, well, his run from the start of 2021 through his injury mid-way through last season is one of the best we've ever seen from a wide receiver. And Nacua has been the No. 4 WR in Fantasy so far, averaging 23.9 PPR points per game in Kupp's absence, so we know this offense still works the way it did. Nacua's emergence might make it slightly more difficult for Kupp to dominate targets the way he's gotten used to; on the other hand, Kupp was averaging 26.2 PPR points per game through the first nine games in 2021, with Robert Woods averaging 15.2. |
| If Kupp is right and Matthew Stafford is healthy – and, while he was limping a bit Sunday, he's looked excellent so far – there's room for both guys to be top-15 options. Kupp might still be the No. 1 player in Fantasy if not for his hamstring injury, and he might still get there; if not, I still think there's top-five upside. |
| If healthy is, of course, the key qualifier for both guys. Which is why, again, I'd prefer they both take their time getting back to make sure they avoid setbacks. Right now might actually represent a sell-high window, because the biggest risk of re-injury is going to come as soon as they get back on a field and start moving at 100% speed. I'm not looking to sell them, but if you are, start putting out feelers as soon as they get on the practice field. |
| And don't just sell Moss or Nacua right now for whatever you can get for them. I still think Nacua will be worth starting alongside Kupp, but Moss' value would definitely take a significant hit if Taylor returns. However, he's also shown he should be viewed as one of the top backups in Fantasy, a guy who can step in and be a fringe RB1 if anything happens to Taylor. He might not get that chance again, but Taylor might also suffer a setback this week and leave Moss in line for a massive, potentially league-winning long-term role. |
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| Week 5 QB Rankings |
| Patrick Mahomes @MINJosh Allen vs. JAX Jalen Hurts @LARLamar Jackson @PIT Trevor Lawrence @BUF Tua Tagovailoa vs. NYGJustin Fields @WAS Kirk Cousins vs. KCAnthony Richardson vs. TEN C.J. Stroud @ATL Daniel Jones @MIAMatthew Stafford vs. PHI |
| Week 5 RB Rankings |
| Christian McCaffrey vs. DALBijan Robinson vs. HOU Tony Pollard @SFJosh Jacobs vs. GB Derrick Henry @IND Alvin Kamara @NETravis Etienne @BUF Joe Mixon @ARIKyren Williams vs. PHI D'Andre Swift @LAR James Cook vs. JAXZack Moss vs. TENRaheem Mostert vs. NYG De'Von Achane vs. NYGMiles Sanders @DET James Conner vs. CIN Rhamondre Stevenson vs. NOIsiah Pacheco @MIN Alexander Mattison vs. KCDameon Pierce @ATL Najee Harris vs. BAL Khalil Herbert @WASGus Edwards @PIT Brian Robinson Jr. vs. CHI |
| Week 5 WR Rankings |
| Justin Jefferson vs. KCTyreek Hill vs. NYG Stefon Diggs vs. JAXAmon-Ra St. Brown vs. CAR CeeDee Lamb @SF Davante Adams vs. GBJa'Marr Chase @ARI A.J. Brown @LARPuka Nacua vs. PHI Chris Olave @NE Devonta Smith @LARJaylen Waddle vs. NYG Deebo Samuel vs. DALCalvin Ridley @BUF Brandon Aiyuk vs. DAL Christian Kirk @BUFNico Collins @ATL Michael Pittman vs. TENDeAndre Hopkins @IND Garrett Wilson @DEN George Pickens vs. BALChristian Watson @LV Adam Thielen @DETMichael Thomas @NE |
| Week 5 TE Rankings |
Travis Kelce @MIN
T.J. Hockenson vs. KC Mark Andrews @PITSam LaPorta vs. CAR George Kittle vs. DAL Evan Engram @BUFDarren Waller @MIA Dallas Goedert @LARHunter Henry vs. NO Tyler Higbee vs. PHI Zach Ertz vs. CINCole Kmet @WAS |
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