| | | | Wednesday, September 28, 2022 | | If you were hoping to get some updates on the Week 4 statuses of guys like Dalvin Cook, D'Andre Swift, or Davis Montgomery (among others) before waivers ran last night … well, that's the problem with waivers running on Tuesday night. | | Tuesday tends to be the slowest day of the week for news, with only the Thursday night teams practicing. We did learn, for instance, that Tua Tagovailoa (back/ankle) might be legitimately questionable for the game against the Bengals, while Jaylen Waddle (groin), Tee Higgins (toe), and Joe Mixon (ankle) seem to be trending toward playing. But as for the rest of the big injuries, we didn't really hear much. Jameis Winston was not spotted at practice Wednesday in London -- and that will also be a situation to monitor with some | | We'll have updates on everyone in tomorrow's newsletter with the first batch of practice reports for the rest of the teams playing in Week 4, and we'll be keeping an eye out for all of the injuries all week. In today's newsletter, however, we're taking a look at Heath Cummings' previews for each position, with a rundown of the injuries to know, his expectations for key matchups, and more. | | Plus, we've got another #AskFFT mailbag, focusing on trades, with the help of Dave Richard's Trade Values Chart. To get your questions included in the newsletter moving forward, send them to [email protected] with "#AskFFT" as the subject line to be included. I've got some thoughts on why Nick Chubb makes for a sell-high candidate – and what I mean when I say "sell-high" – plus some of your trade questions to give you an idea of what you should be looking for out there. | | | 🔍Week 4 Position Previews
| | Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know about and our expert consensus rankings before you go read Heath's full breakdowns: | | | | QB Preview | | "Through the first three weeks of the Fantasy Football season, Tom Brady has scored 40.5 Fantasy points. That ranks 27th at quarterback, behind Mac Jones, Mitchell Trubisky, and a host of others. It's also 0.3 points lower than what Lamar Jackson is averaging per game. The reasons are many, and they aren't certain to get better in Week 3. | | The most notable of Brady's problems, and the one that should get better this week, is his lack of help at wide receiver." | Injuries: Dak Prescott (thumb), Tua Tagovailoa (back), Mac Jones (ankle) and Zach Wilson (knee).Number to know: 5.4 -- Aaron Rodgers has the lowest average depth of target of all quarterbacks.
Matchup that matters: Jared Goff vs. SEA (16th vs. QB)Waiver add/streamer: " Marcus Mariota. Mariota's weapons in the passing game and running ability gives him three-touchdown upside in a game that has a surprisingly high over/under of 50."Stash: "As a second-year quarterback, Zach Wilson should be improved this year. He has a very talented set of weapons and a coaching staff that's calling 50 pass attempts per game. With his mobility, he could be a high-end QB2 if he makes a leap." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Josh Allen, BUFLamar Jackson, BALJalen Hurts, PHI Patrick Mahomes, KCJustin Herbert, LAC Joe Burrow, CIN Kyler Murray, ARIKirk Cousins, MINAaron Rodgers, GB Derek Carr, LVTua Tagovailoa, MIACarson Wentz, WAS | | *My QB Rankings | | | | RB Preview | | "Week 3 was a rough one for No. 1 running backs. D'Andre Swift, Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery, and Joe Mixon all suffered some sort of injury. While they aren't all listed in the waiver section below (due to roster rates), that means you should be looking for Jamaal Williams, Khalil Herbert, Alexander Mattison, and Samaje Perine when you make waiver claims this week. | | All four of the replacements could be Fantasy starters if they get the chance. But Williams is the only one we feel relatively confident will get the chance." | Injuries: Dalvin Cook (shoulder), D'Andre Swift (shoulder), David Montgomery (ankle), Joe Mixon (ankle), Elijah Mitchell (knee), Brian Robinson (knee), Tyrion Davis-Price (ankle) and Damien Williams (ribs).Number to know: 45% -- Javonte Williams' 45% snap share in Week 3 was his lowest of the season.
Matchup that matters: J.K. Dobbins vs. BUF (4th vs. RB)Waiver add: "If David Montgomery misses time, then Herbert is a must-start, top-15 running back. But even if Montgomery is able to return in Week 4, Herbert should be the most added running back. He showed his upside against the Houston Texans and could see a bigger role as the season goes on. Herbert is a buy in Dynasty as well, with Montgomery being a free agent after this season."Stash: "Warren has looked more explosive than Najee Harris, and while that won't matter as long as Harris stays healthy, it does highlight just how much upside he could have if Harris goes down. We'd expect 20 touches per game for the rookie, and league-winning potential. if you have an extra roster spot, there are few better ways to use it." | | Consensus Expert Top 24 | | Christian McCaffrey, CARJonathan Taylor, IND Saquon Barkley, NYGAustin Ekeler, LACNick Chubb, CLEDalvin Cook, MIN Derrick Henry, TENAlvin Kamara, NO Aaron Jones, GB Leonard Fournette, TBJamaal Williams, DETJoe Mixon, CINJames Conner, ARIKhalil Herbert, CHI Najee Harris, PITJavonte Williams, DENCordarrelle Patterson, ATLJames Robinson, JAC Antonio Gibson, WASEzekiel Elliott, DAL Josh Jacobs, LV Breece Hall, NYJClyde Edwards-Helaire, KC Dameon Pierce, HOU | | *My RB Rankings | | | | WR Preview | | "One of the more difficult things about this time of year is knowing when to bench your early-round picks. No one wants to overreact to three games of football, but at the same time, we're getting to the point where you really need to get a win, especially if you don't already have one. One player I'm not ready to sit is Brandin Cooks." | Injuries: Stefon Diggs (lower body), Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle), Michael Thomas (toe), Jaylen Waddle (groin), Tee Higgins (toe), Keenan Allen (hamstring), Chris Godwin (hamstring), Hunter Renfrow (concussion), Jarvis Landry (ankle), Julio Jones (knee), Jakobi Meyers (knee), Michael Gallup (knee), Sterling Shepard (knee), Kadarius Toney (hamstring), Rondale Moore (hamstring), A.J. Green (knee) and Christian Watson (hamstring).Number to know: 50.3% -- Amari Cooper leads the NFL with a 50.3% air yards share.
Matchup that matters: Allen Robinson @SF (2nd vs. WR) Waiver add: "Romeo Doubs. Doubs leads the Packers in targets, receptions, and yards. It looks as though he's earned Aaron Rodgers' trust. An 87.5% catch rate will do that. Doubs has the inside track to a WR1 role that should produce starter numbers, especially in non-PPR. I'm more interested in adding Doubs than starting him in Week 4 against the Patriots." Stash: "Kadarius Toney and Wan'Dale Robinson should both be stashed if you can find a spot. Sterling Shepard's injury leaves a huge void and Kenny Golladay doesn't look capable of cashing in. Toney and Robinson are the most talented receivers on the roster but have to get healthy and earn playing time. Brian Daboll is not going to hand it to them." | | Consensus Expert Top 24 | | Cooper Kupp, LARStefon Diggs, BUFJustin Jefferson, MIN Ja'Marr Chase, CINDavante Adams, LV A.J. Brown, PHI Tyreek Hill, MIAAmon-Ra St. Brown, DETMichael Pittman, IND Deebo Samuel, SFMarquise Brown, ARIJaylen Waddle, MIA Courtland Sutton, DENCeeDee Lamb, DALTee Higgins, CIN Diontae Johnson, PITChristian Kirk, JACAmari Cooper, CLEKeenan Allen, LAC Mike Evans, TBDeVonta Smith, PHIMichael Thomas, NODrake London, ATL Chris Olave, NO | | *My WR Rankings | | TE Preview | | "George Kittle's first game back only resulted in 6.8 PPR Fantasy points. After a summer of consternation and two missed games, you may be feeling pretty terrible about your tight end. I'm pretty sure it's going to be OK." | | Injuries of note: Dalton Schultz (knee), Taysom Hill (ribs), Hayden Hurst (groin) and Brevin Jordan (ankle)Number to know: 5 - George Kittle has made at least five catches in his last seven meetings with the Rams. Matchup that matters: Irv Smith @NO (3rd vs. TE)Streamer: " Tyler Conklin has earned a 16% target share through three weeks, second only to Garrett Wilson on the Jets . Meanwhile, the Jets are throwing the ball 52 times a game. If either one of these numbers holds up with Zach Wilson returning, Conklin is going to be a top 10 tight end." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Mark Andrews, BALTravis Kelce, KC Darren Waller, LVKyle Pitts, ATL Dallas Goedert, PHI Zach Ertz, ARITyler Higbee, LAR Pat Freiermuth, PITGeorge Kittle, SFDalton Schultz, DALT.J. Hockenson, DET Gerald Everett, LAC | | *My TE Rankings | | 📫Trade Mailbag | | When we talk about sell-high candidates, the emphasis should be on the word "high." I mean, sure, when it comes to someone like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who is just so obviously outperforming his skill set and role, you don't have to set your sights too high. But when I say something like "Nick Chubb is a sell-high candidate," I really do mean "high." | | Because there is, obviously, a ton to like about Chubb. He's long been one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL, an incredibly consistent and productive early-down grinder who can also hit home runs – he's like if you shrunk Derrick Henry down using Ant-Man's Pym Particles, making him even denser and just as explosive. | | And the Browns are giving him Henry-esque work right now, with two games of 20-plus carries in the first three – he had just five games out of 14 with 20-plus carries last season. With Jacoby Brissett at QB and a defense that looks pretty ferocious, Chubb looks like he's well positioned for a career-best season. | | But he's also probably playing over his head. I say probably because, well, as Henry has shown the past few seasons, if a team really locks in a back of this talent level to 20-plus touches a week, he can overcome an inefficient distribution of touches. But, it's still true that Chubb doesn't catch many passes, and he's still in an offense that I expect to regress from their current sixth-place ranking in scoring. And, as we saw in Week 1, there's still that pesky Kareem Hunt guy and his 15-or so touches every week who can vulture touchdowns from Chubb. | | That's not to say Chubb won't be good. He will be. Very good, even. Hence the emphasis on "sell-high." You need to get a first-round caliber player back if you're moving Chubb, or at least multiple early-round types. But it's worth throwing him on the block just to see what kind of offers you get – maybe someone is panicking about Justin Jefferson's slowdown since Week 1 and you can swap them straight up. I'd definitely do that. Or, maybe you can get Davante Adams and a buy-low like D.J. Moore for him. | | The point is, moving Chubb is going to require that you be bowled over by any potential offer. But this might be the best three-game stretch of his season, so don't be afraid to make him available. | | Now, let's get to the trade mailbag. Every Wednesday in this space, I'll be answering your trade questions, giving you Dave Richard's trade chart's spin as well as how I would approach the deals. If you want your trade questions answered, send them over to [email protected] with the subject line "#AskFFT" and I'll make sure they get answered next week: | | Nick: In a full-PPR league, what's a realistic expectation on what I can get for Kamara in a trade? Does the fact he was a top-24 pick carry any weight at this point or has his start torpedoed that? | What the trade chart says: Kamara is still a top-10 RB, so you would need someone like Amon-Ra St. Brown or A.J. Brown in return.What I say: As a general rule, you should try to avoid selling a top-24 pick who has been a bust at this point unless you have a really good reason to think they just aren't going to get any better. Three weeks just isn't a lot of time for a players' value to change, and in Kamara's case, it's only been two games - one-and-a-half, really, since he suffered the rib injury during Week 1. He wasn't great in Week 3, but he had 15 carries and seven targets, so the workload wasn't the issue. My suggestion is actually to try to buy low on Kamara, a suggestion Dave also made during the Fantasy Football Today in 5 episode we recorded Tuesday afternoon. So, hold Kamara for now. If you're worried about his fit with Jameis Winston, there should still be better opportunities to sell him than a game where he caught just two of seven targets and had a costly fumble.
| | Jon: Should I trade away Jalen Hurts to get Trevor Lawrence and James Conner. It's a 6-point-per-pass-TD league, and my RBs are Saquon Barkley, AJ Dillon, and Tony Pollard. | What the trade chart says: Giving up 21 points, getting 17.What I say: I'm not going to say Conner isn't an upgrade on your RB2 situation, because he should be, but I'm not sure this is worth the hit you're taking at quarterback. Lawrence looks pretty good, but Hurts looks like he's on a completely different level. He might match Lawrence as a passer with his improved weapons while rushing for 600 more yards and five more touchdowns, conservatively. Conner is a good, potentially great Fantasy running back, but we've already seen him struggle with injuries this season, and that remains an ongoing concern for him. I just don't think it's enough of an upgrade to justify the loss at QB.
| | Malcolm: PPR 12-Team 1QB keeper league (your two keepers are automatically your first two picks in the draft, so no bonus for value picks in a draft): Trade Chris Olave and Austin Ekeler for Josh Allen and Michael Carter. | What the trade chart says: Giving up 44, getting 30. What I say: It's unlikely either Olave or Carter are going to be keeper-worthy next season, while Ekeler and Allen both should be, so I think the keeper ramifications here are limited. That being said, there's a better chance of Olave breaking out and being a top-24 pick next season than for Carter, in my opinion, so I can't say there's no potential for that to matter here. It's just not particularly likely, so we'll focus on the rest-of-season outlook here. And I think it's probably not worth doing. As much as I love Allen - and the edge one of the top-handful of QBs gives you - I think there's a pretty good chance you're giving up two starters for one here, because Olave has a more obvious path to being a top-24 WR than Carter does at RB. Ekeler for Allen is pretty close to even - maybe an edge to Ekeler, even - but I'm valuing Olave more than Carter now. So I would pass.
| | Jack: Full PPR. Trade Joe Mixon and Marquise Brown for D'Andre Swift and Travis Etienne? | | What the trade chart says: Giving up 37, getting 30.What I say: I think you're giving up the potential for more assured production, especially in the near term, so it might depend on where your team is standing. At 3-0, I think it might make sense to do this deal - you've got a bit of a cushion to stomach a potential three-week absence from Swift, and you can afford to wait on Etienne, who could emerge as the No. 1 RB for the Jaguars if James Robinson falters. But it's definitely a risk. Swift's inability to stay healthy is a real red flag, and I do wonder if the Lions might not limit his snaps when he's healthy to try to keep him fresh. And, based on what we've seen so far, there's a decent chance Etienne is never anything more than a role player if Robinson stays healthy. Mixon has been a disappointment, but you know he's a must-start RB, while Brown brings inconsistency, yes, but also big weekly upside, and should remain viable even when DeAndre Hopkins is healthy. I can see the logic behind this trade, but I wouldn't do it. | | | | | | | | 24/7 Sports News | | Hasbro NBA Starting Lineup | ✔Scores & Highlights
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