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| Wednesday, September 25, 2024 |
| We have a ton of info to cover in this space on Wednesdays, so we won't waste time on any sort of personal intro. Yo! You probably have some players injured by this point, maybe even a whole bunch. Me too. It's gonna be alright. Deep breath. In and out. |
| I hope you are keeping your head above water with all of the information flooding the Fantasy football streets. It's never a good time to panic. |
| If you are feeling panicked, tell me about it. Well, take another deep breath, and then tell me about it. No need to let that panic bleed into the lab. I only have so much time and energy, and I do plan to read every word that you send me on Thursday night -- one final reminder, in case you missed the first two newsletters this week -- I'm excited to create an interactive space here where we can dive into more detail about burning Fantasy topics together each week. Every Friday, I'll address topics chosen by the FFT NL readers in this Google form (link below). Another reminder: each Friday, we'll go 'In The Lab' in this space: |
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| If you want to be part of Friday's newsletter post, feel free to join us in the lab! Fill out this Google form, and then check back on Friday! |
| Week 4 Coverage Data |
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| Nothin like a matchup vs. the Jaguars to get back on track! |
| The Minnesota-Houston Week 3 matchup was the one that I was the most excited for, and it sure did not disappoint. The Vikings defense wrecked C.J. Stroud and the Texans offensive line! |
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| Brian Flores is an absolute menace. |
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| The Texans can leave Flores in the past, a nightmare they won't have to confront again -- barring a Sam Darnold Super Bowl run. Let's move on, Houston. |
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| Before getting into the specifics of this matchup for Collins, it's important to denote that it's quite possible none of it will matter. Houston's defense is legit, and the Jags offense is not. The Texans are 6.5-point favorites for this game, only the 49ers, Chiefs, and Jets are bigger favorites in Week 4. We might see a run-heavy approach from the Texans if the Jags can't keep the game competitive. |
| Still, it might only take five targets for Collins to go nuts in this spot. |
| Jacksonville's defense has used man/press coverage more than any other. Even when facing Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Jags pressed. Even against Amari Cooper, the Jags pressed. Will they press, even against Nico Collins? |
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| The cherry on top is that this Jags defense has not generated much pressure. That's big news for Collins and Tank Dell. When Stroud has not been pressured, he's preferred to stay in the pocket for as long as possible to try to find his guys down the field. |
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| While we're here talking about pressure, here are the defenses generating the most pressure for comparison. |
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| We'll dig into blitz and pressure data in more detail later in today's newsletter. Let's keep things rolling with the next coverage matchup. |
| The Raiders get another matchup that favors perimeter passing |
| I highlighted last week's matchup as a potentially bad spot for Brock Bowers, and a Week 4 matchup vs. the Cleveland Browns may be another low-volume game for the tight end for a lot of the same reasons. Like last week's opponent, the Browns use single-high safety coverages way more than most. Cleveland's is the only defense that uses more single-high safety coverages than the Panthers, actually. |
| In the case of the Panthers, lots of Cover-3 (a zone coverage scheme) contributed to such a high single-high rate. The Browns use a ton of man coverage. That's even more concerning for tight end target rates. |
| I'd expect more targets for Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. Bowers is still starting for almost anyone who rosters him in Fantasy, of course, but this isn't a week I'd be targeting him for DFS or prop betting. Bowers is so good that he can go off in any game, but it's worth knowing that the first two matchups were zone-heavy coverage schemes that facilitate more over-the-middle targets, while Weeks 3 and 4 (and 5 and 6, unfortunately) are not so inviting. |
| Obviously, he's not a safe start, but Ladd McConkey is intriguing in Week 4 |
| The underlying per-route data is really encouraging for L.A.'s rookie WR. It hasn't amounted to a whole lot yet because the Chargers have mostly been able to control games on the ground. If L.A. is forced to take to the air as huge Week 4 underdogs, we may see a more "normal" type of route total for McConkey. If he runs 30-ish routes rather than 20-ish, it could result in double-digit targets for the rook. |
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| He's tied for third in the NFL in targets per route run! In Week 3, McConkey accounted for 50% of L.A.'s first-read targets, which was the highest rate in the NFL. Quentin Johnston caught a TD on a busted coverage but only had two targets. QJ has struggled vs. press coverage, just as he did as a rookie and a collegiate wide receiver. No defense uses press coverage more than Kansas City. |
| Don't get me wrong, this is not a good matchup for McConkey, either. He'll have his hands full with Trent McDuffie at times. (McDuffie is covering the slot on only about one-third of his snaps, though, down from two-thirds in 2023) |
| Who else is going to get open for L.A., though? This is a brutal matchup for QJ. Kansas City's corners are physical and mean. Remember that training camp video that went viral with Xavier Worthy getting shoved to the ground twice in a matter of seconds? That's the mentality that this Chiefs secondary plays with. My guess is that McConkey is L.A.'s best bet at creating open targets. |
| Last matchup note working in McConkey's favor: Steve Spagnuolo calls Cover-3 less than any defensive coordinator. |
| Cover-3 is the NFL's most prevalent scheme. The league average is 33%, Spags has only used it 14% of the time in 2024. |
| When facing Cover-3, McConkey has a 24% target per route run rate. When facing any other coverage type, he has a 33% rate. When not facing Cover-3, McConkey has produced 5 of 11 passing first downs for the Chargers. He'll likely have to be the chain-mover in this spot. |
| Another Drake London week?! |
| Is the suffering really over? It feels too good to be true! |
| Atlanta has returned to normalcy after a bizarre Week 1 showing without any play action or under-center snaps. In fact, Atlanta's offense has been really encouraging from a Fantasy football point producing standpoint over the past two weeks! And London has been the focal point. |
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| The Falcons are playing with pace, using pre-snap motion, using play action -- all of the things that we hoped for heading into the season are in place other than a high pass rate. We may see that ramped up as Kirk Cousins finds his footing. |
| This summer, Matt Harmon painted the picture of how Drake London may fit with Cousins occupying the "Puka Nacua role" in Zac Robinson's offense. We've seen that materialize in the 2024 version of Robinson's offense. |
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| More horizontal-breaking routes and targets are great for London's general outlook, and this week's specific matchup seems to be perfect. No defense has allowed more receiving yardage than the Saints on horizontally-breaking routes in 2024. |
| The Saints use a lot of man (36% - sixth-highest rate) and press coverage (65% - seventh-highest) too. London can cook most corners in man/press situations. Since entering the league, London has the fifth-highest target per route run rate vs. man coverage. As a new pro in his first few years at his job, he's competed with the absolute best of the best against man coverage. |
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| The Drake London breakout seems to finally be here. And his Week 4 matchup aligns as a potential eruption spot. I wanna be in on this in a big way. Attacking this game in DFS will be near the top of my Week 4 priorities. On that note... |
| Chris Olave set to face lots of Cover-3 again |
| On the other side of the matchup, fellow third-year phenom Chris Olave will attempt to keep pace with London against a Falcons defense that uses a ton of Cover-3. Atlanta's Cover-3 rate in 2024 is 49%, the fourth-highest in the NFL. |
| Since the start of 2023, Olave has been targeted on 30.2% of his routes vs. Cover-3. That ranks fifth among 95 qualified WRs. |
| Rome Odunze is poised for another big performance |
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| And really, this could be a good spot for Keenan Allen, too! He's been excellent vs. Cover-3. I do think that his role is completely different than the one that he played in Kellen Moore's offense, and I worry a bit about his health. But Allen was the team's top target in Week 1. My feeling from watching the Bears is that Odunze is the WR who Williams has the most trust in at the moment. There has appeared to be a disconnect between the rookie QB and D.J. Moore. |
| Is the George Pickens breakout game finally upon us? |
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| It's been a bit of a slow roll for George Pickens so far, as the 3-0 Steelers have not needed to attack down the field much. That may again be the case in Week 4. Vegas has the Colts listed as underdogs, only implied for 19 points against Pittsburgh, and Indy's offense has not been functional lately. This Steelers defense is terrifying. |
| This is by far the best matchup that Pickens has seen in 2024. If taking to the air, even just a little bit, Pickens could come down with some huge catches. |
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| No defense uses Cover-3 more than the Gus Bradley-led Colts. Single-high safety coverage is not a good idea when facing a fiend on the perimeter like Pickens. Below, I laid out exactly why, using the dope capabilities of the high-powered FantasyPoints Data Suite! |
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Is Jordan Love the QB who finally figures out this Minnesota defense?
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| If Jordan Love suits up, I'm intrigued by what he might be able to do against a Minnesota defense that has been an absolute buzzsaw so far. Love went through that buzzsaw and survived (229 passing with 1 TD and 1 INT on just a 58% completion percentage in a 10-24 loss) in Week 7 last year and then came back with answers in a 33-10 road win over the Vikings in Week 17. Love was 24-33 passing in that game and threw for three touchdowns. |
| There's an extremely wide range of outcomes for Love in this spot. He's been one of the best passers when pressured since the start of 2023. And he's willing to stand in and attack down the field when pressured, which contributes to the wide range of outcomes. Only Trevor Lawrence has a higher average depth of target than Love when pressured since the start of 2023. This Brian Flores-called defense is going to blitz and pressure him. |
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Under Pressure -- how might blitz/pressure rates impact Week 4?
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| We have some scary pass rushers in the NFL right now and several shaky offensive lines. If the historically low passing output through two weeks didn't make that clear, I think that pressure problems may be a theme in 2024 -- early in the season, at least. Below, you'll find the pass rushers who have caused the most mayhem individually each week. |
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| Anthony Richardson vs. the Steelers? NIGHTMARE NIGHTMARE NIGHTMARE |
| When pressured (career), Richardson has completed 17 of 40 passes. The NFL average completion percentage when pressured is 49%, to be fair. The league-average off-target rate vs. pressure is 14.2%, Richardson's rate is 17.5%. |
| Per the great Rich Hribar, Richardson has been less likely (relative to expectation based on league averages) to scramble when pressured, too. There's not much to inspire confidence here. The Colts have one of the lowest implied team totals (19 points) in Week 4, and the Steelers have yet to allow more than 10 points in a game. |
| I have A Rich ranked as the QB12 ahead of some quarterbacks who have outperformed him and seem to clearly be safer bets. Even in a brutal matchup, he offers the potential to uncork an uncoverable deep ball to Alec Pierce on any given dropback. He has the athleticism to scramble for a huge Fantasy-boosting total on any given play. I get that it's been frustrating -- believe me, I roster a decent amount of Richardson -- but I wouldn't be benching him unless you have a clearly better option. |
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| Or, if you feel like you're clearly at an advantage in your Fantasy matchup in Week 4 and simply want the safer option, then benching Richardson is fine. |
| Kyler Murray should have time to pick Washington's secondary apart |
| The Commanders have been torched in 2024, thanks in part to a subpar secondary and in part to a subpar pass rush. That's not a good combination. Washington brings the blitz at an above-average rate but has been well below average at generating pressure. |
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| Murray has actually been really good vs. pressure. What I want to highlight here is that he's attacked deep more often when not pressured. The Commanders are really easy to pick on with slot receivers, and we will probably see a decent number of opportunities for Greg Dortch (especially if Trey McBride misses this game with a concussion). I also think that Murray may continue to be aggressive in targeting Marvin Harrison Jr. against this defense. MHJ has a top-10 first-read target rate (33%) over the past couple of weeks. If Washington's offense continues to convert first downs with efficiency, this could turn into a high-flying shootout. Marv's stat line could get out of control in that scenario. |
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| Kansas City's passing game likely gets going in Week 4 |
| Patrick Mahomes has not been good when pressured since the start of 2023. He has a negative TD:INT ratio vs. pressure during that time. Mahomes has tried to create plays vs. pressure and has not been as successful lately. Lamar Jackson is the only QB with a higher time to throw (4.18 seconds) vs. pressure than Mahomes (4.13 seconds) since the start of 2023. Mahomes ranks sixth out of 56 qualifiers in passer rating when not pressured but is 37th vs. pressure. |
| In Week 4, he faces a Chargers defense that has generated the third-lowest pressure rate and may be without Joey Bosa. L.A. will be without Derwin James in the secondary. This feels like a perfect spot for Mahomes to get a bit of his mojo back. If so, does that trickle down to Travis Kelce? Or is this simply another huge Rashee Rice game? |
| For what it's worth, Rice is the player with more sensitive splits vs. pressure. Kelce's stats are a little bit worse when Mahomes has faced pressure. Rice's stats are way worse. And when his QB has not been pressured, Rice has a career 0.75 PPR points per route run rate. Only Tyreek Hill has a higher rate since the start of 2023. |
| Tiny sample size alert, but Xavier Worthy has only drawn one target on 21 routes run when Mahomes was pressured. All of his production has come when Mahomes has been kept clean. |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Adam, Dan, and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! We do a weekly recap on Mondays and a deep dive with a guest every Thursday, you can find those on YouTube! |
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