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| Wednesday, September 18, 2024 |
| We have a ton of info to cover in this space on Wednesdays, so we won't waste time on any sort of personal intro. Hello, I hope you are keeping your head above water with all of the information flooding the Fantasy football streets. It's never a good time to panic. |
| If you are feeling panicked, tell me about it. I'll read every word that you send me on Thursday night -- one final reminder, in case you missed the first two newsletters this week -- I'm excited to create an interactive space here where we can dive into more detail about burning Fantasy topics together each week. Every Friday, I'll address topics chosen by the FFT NL readers in this google form (link below): |
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| If you have want to be part of Friday's newsletter post, feel free to join us in the lab! Fill out this google form, and then check back on Friday! |
| Week 3 Coverage Data |
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| Chris Godwin might keep right on rollin |
| Godwin has drawn two ideal slot matchups to start the season and may be in store for another huge game in Week 3. The Bucs face a Denver Broncos defense that may have the NFL's best shadow coverage cornerback in Patrick Surtain. My expectation is that Surtain will travel with Mike Evans just about everywhere the veteran perimeter receiver goes. |
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| We could see targets funneled to the slot as a result. Through two games, we have yet to see an offense find much success through the air against this Broncos defense, though. The Seahawks only passed for 171 yards in Week 1, and the Steelers followed that up with 117 in Week 2. The path of least resistance vs. this defense comes on the ground. |
| I do think that Denver's defense can be gashed for huge gains through the air, though. No defense is playing more aggressively than Denver's. The Broncos are second in man coverage use and ninth in press coverage. Denver also is blitzing at by far the highest rate in the NFL. So far, those blitzes have mostly gotten home and put a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. |
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| We'll dig into blitz and pressure data in more detail later in today's newsletter. Let's keep things rolling with the next coverage matchup. |
| A man-heavy coverage matchup vs. the Jaguars looks like a bad fit on-paper for Khalil Shakir |
| Shakir seems to be emerging as the top receiver for Buffalo, but we could see the target distribution swing back in the favor of Keon Coleman in Week 3. The only defense that has used man coverage more than the Broncos is Ryan Nielsen's Jacksonville Jaguars. Shakir's career per-route target and yard rates drop dramatically when facing man coverage, he's always been more of a zone-buster. So far in 2024, Coleman is the Bills player with the most targets vs. man coverage. |
| What might this matchup mean for Dalton Kincaid? It's difficult to say. Their opposing tight ends in 2024 have combined for only 23 yards, but their names are Jonnu Smith and Jordan Akins. |
| I can tell you that man coverage typically leads to lower target rates for tight ends. I can also tell you that Kincaid's career rates when the Bills are facing Cover-1 are pretty abysmal. The Jags have used Cover-1 on 49% of defensive plays, up from a league average of 21%. |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. could be in store for another monster performance |
| The Detroit Lions have the third-highest man coverage rate, but I think that rate is inflated by a bunch of plays coming in the red zone last week (teams use more man coverage in the red zone and on third downs). On non-red zone plays, Detroit has a much lower man coverage rate. On first downs, Detroit's man coverage rate is only 19%. The Lions have swapped out Cover-1 (man) for Cover-3 (zone) in neutral situations. Both are single-high safety coverage looks. The Lions have the fourth-highest single-high coverage rate in the NFL. |
| I think that we're going to see a lot of single-high in this spot. Kyler Murray has been much better vs. two-high safety coverages. It will be very interesting to see how Detroit (and NFL defenses at large) choose to approach this Cardinals offense. The engine of the offense is the run game and play action passes to Trey McBride. Single-high safety coverages give defenses a better chance of slowing those two things down. Single-high safety coverages also leave the secondary susceptible to the deep threat presented by MHJ, as the Rams just learned. |
| Through two weeks, we haven't seen offenses test the Lions down the field much. Baker Mayfield only targeted Mike Evans six times and instead fed eight targets to Chris Godwin. The week prior, Cooper Kupp saw 21 short targets against the Lions. Greg Dortch looks like a totally valid flex fill-in if needed! MHJ feels like a risky play. You may remember that I was concerned about his ability to consistently draw targets because of his super high Week 1 average route depth. That rate climbed even higher in Week 2. I think we're in for a roller coaster ride with this type of usage, especially if Murray is inconsistent as a passer. The upside is massive in a projected shootout against the Lions, though, for sure. |
| Going from the Commanders defense to a matchup vs. the Browns is as brutal as it gets |
| Good luck, Malik Nabers. Daniel Jones may simply not have the time to find his rookie receiver in this spot. On top of obvious pressure concerns against Myles Garrett and company, Nabers will have his hands full with heavy man/press coverage from Denzel Ward and a physical and aggressive Cleveland secondary. |
| For what it's worth, Nabers has been pressed a ton to start his NFL career. On 28 routes vs. press coverage, he's drawn 10 targets and caught seven of them for 127 yards. That's awesome efficiency (a matchup vs. Washington sure helps) for a rookie vs. press. Nabers has only run 10 routes vs. man coverage, but he has been targeted on EIGHT of those routes! |
| I wouldn't go out of my way to get exposure to the Giants in this matchup, of course, but I also wouldn't shy away from Nabers after we just saw 18 targets go his way in Week 2. The rook may just be a special player. |
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| Will we see Garrett Wilson feast on this New England defense in the way that DK Metcalf/Jaxon Smith-Njigba just did? |
| Young shadow corner Christian Gonzales has put some really impressive reps on tape in 2024, but he will have his hands full with Wilson in Week 3. You'll see later in this write-up that Chris Wecht included DK Metcalf's long touchdown as "matched up vs. Gonzales," which is technically true, but it's important to understand that it was a busted coverage on the back-end of the secondary. I was again impressed when watching New England's top cover corner. |
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| Still, Wilson has been one of the most deadly route runners vs. man/press coverage since entering the league and only got better in Year 2. It's been a slow start for him in Year 3, but I think we'll see him get it going soon. Even despite Gonzalez, Wilson may get rolling in Week 3 against a Pats defense that uses a ton of man/press coverage. |
| The target distribution between Davante Adams and Brock Bowers may lean more in the favor of the veteran in Week 3 |
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| This feels like your last chance to trade for Brandon Aiyuk at a discount |
| Here's a three-tweet thread detailing the sweet spot for Aiyuk in Week 3. |
| D.J. Moore's matchup also supports a potential get-right game |
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| Chris Olave gets going in Week 3 too?! Is this really the week that our pain and suffering stops? (I have no Kyle Pitts hopium for you) |
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| Before we move onto the next portion of today's newsletter, here's some coverage-related eye candy for you: |
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| Under Pressure -- how might blitz/pressure rates impact Week 3? |
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| We have some scary pass rushes in the NFL right now, and several shaky offensive lines. If the historically low passing output through two weeks didn't make that clear, I think that pressure problems may be a theme in 2024 -- early in the season, at least. Below, you'll find the pass rushers who caused the most mayhem individually in Weeks 1 and 2. |
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| Baker Mayfield is not bothered by the blitz |
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| How will C.J. Stroud fare vs. the blitz-heavy Brian Flores-led Vikings defense? |
| Here is a ton of reading (a ton! It will take you at least two minutes to read it!) about the specific coverage types that the Vikings have used in 2024 and how Houston's target distribution may be affected. I'm extremely intrigued by how the chess game between Flores and Bobby Slowik will play out. The Vikings are among the best in the NFL at disguising coverages pre-snap, and the chaos and uncertainty is compounded by the crazy blitz rate. It will probably be a lot of fun to see how Stroud processes and chooses to attack this defense. |
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| For what it's worth, Nico Collins is the pass-catcher who Stroud has locked in on when blitzed. |
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Need even more reason to be into Davante Adams in Week 3?
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| I'm worried about Baltimore's offensive line holding up against the Cowboys |
| Dallas got torched by New Orleans in Week 2, and the Ravens have a Week 3 Vegas implied total of 25.5 points. That's tied with the Chiefs for the fifth-highest on the week. Maybe there's no cause for concern. But I am concerned, especially for Mark Andrews. As we saw in Week 1, the Ravens are willing to work around an aggressive defensive front seven, even if that means more short manufactured touches for Zay Flowers and Isaiah Likely and fewer opportunities for Andrews. Todd Monken has used Andrews as the primary field-stretching option in 2024, and we've seen him go target-less on 18 routes run during which Jackson faced pressure. If there isn't time to make downfield reads, it may be another disappointing day for Andrews. And we may again see a heavy heaping of catch-and-run chances for Flowers. |
| Anthony Richardson also draws another tough matchup |
| The Bears defense is legit. Chicago's defense has kept the Bears in games in spite of horrific offensive execution. The Bears rank 12th in pressure rate and may make life difficult for a Colts offense that saw the wheels fall off in Week 2. Hopefully Indy gets Josh Downs back for this game. Richardson needs some easy buttons. |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Adam, Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! We do a weekly recap on Mondays and a deep dive with a guest every Thursday, you can find those on YouTube! |
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