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| Tuesday, January 2, 2024 |
| Last week, I said that Kyren Williams might go down as both one of the best waiver-wire pickups in Fantasy Football in the last decade and also possibly not even the best on his own team. After his three-touchdown performance in the Fantasy championships in Week 17, he might have leap-frogged fellow Ram Puka Nacua and earned his spot as the most impactful waiver-wire add we've seen in a long time. Maybe ever. |
| Williams dropped 30.1 PPR points on the Giants Sunday, and he enters Week 18 as one of just two running backs averaging 20-plus PPR points; add in wide receivers, and only two other non-QBs have been better than him on a per-game basis this season. With the Rams left with little to play for in Week 18 after locking up a playoff spot, it's an open question whether Williams will do much to add to his totals this week, but he's already cemented his place as one of the most valuable players in Fantasy I can remember, scoring at least 14 PPR points in 10 of his 12 games, including six straight after coming back from a high-ankle sprain in Week 12. |
| How we handle Williams in 2024 is going to be one of the most fascinating questions Fantasy analysts and players have to figure out in the coming offseason, because he's got a pretty unique profile. Remember, Williams was a fifth-round pick who was mostly a non-factor as a rookie, despite plenty of need on the Rams part. He has dealt with multiple high-ankle sprains since entering the NFL and wasn't viewed as a great prospect, so this could very easily go the way of Dameon Pierce -- remember when it was controversial to say we should fade him? |
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| We'll start to tackle that question tomorrow, when we unveil our way-to-early first look at the QB and RB rankings for 2024, but I get the feeling Williams is going to be one of the more controversial players in any ranking for both 2024 and especially Dynasty. I genuinely have no idea what to do with Williams right now -- but that's for tomorrow's newsletter. |
| Today, we're taking a quick look at what to expect from Week 18 for those of you still playing for something this week. One thing you should know, of course, is that ... you shouldn't be playing Fantasy Football in Week 18! 17 NFL teams effectively have nothing to play for in Week 18, and that will likely lead to all kinds of weird outcomes around the NFL. |
| Remember two different Colts backs finishing as top-eight players in Week 18 last year? What about Kenyan Drake and Corey Clement finishing as top-15 RBs in PPR scoring? DeVante Parker's WR2 finish with two touchdowns? Hunter Renfrow and A.J. Green's top-10 performances? What about Davis Webb and Mac Jones finishing as top-six QBs? What about Sam Ehlinger's QB10 showing. |
| Yeah, Week 18 is weird. It's fun for DFS, but you don't want your Fantasy championship decided by teams resting their stars. We'll try to pinpoint which teams might be resting their starters before we look at Week 18 rankings, but be warned now: These are the last updated rankings you're going to get this week, and things could potentially change a lot between now and Saturday, when our first lineup lock of the week is. Jamey Eisenberg's Week 18 waiver-wire column has more thoughts on the situation, so make sure you check that out here. |
| As for me? I'm turning my attention to 2024 after this. |
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| Week 18 Outlook |
| So, here's the tricky thing: Some teams with little to play for will still treat Week 18 like a normal week. Some will put their starters out there to begin the game, but will turn things over to backups as the game goes on; some will only sit certain players for certain stretches. And some teams will sit everyone relevant. Which teams will do which? |
| Well, that's pretty much impossible to say until and unless we get some kind of official word from the teams themselves. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni told reporters Monday he might consider sitting some key players, though that decision might not come until halftime -- the Eagles need to win and have the Cowboys lose to the Commanders to have a chance to win the NFC East, so if Dallas is up big early, that might trigger the decision. |
| We can make some educated guess on some of these, of course, and if you look at the Vegas lines, it seems we already have. The Ravens are 3.5-point underdogs at home against the Steelers Saturday, a pretty good sign that the starters are expected to sit now that they've locked up a bye and homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs; similarly, the 49ers are only favored by 3.5 at home against the Rams with their No. 1 seed locked up, and they've already announced Christian McCaffrey won't play due to a mild calf strain. The Chiefs are 1.5 underdogs to the Chargers, under the assumption that Andy Reid will do what he has done in the past and rest his starters. |
| Among playoff teams, the Ravens, 49ers, and Chiefs are three of the five teams who effectively have nothing to play for in Week 18, along with the Rams and Browns. The Rams seeding in the NFC bracket could be impacted by the outcome of their game, but they are overwhelmingly likely to be the sixth seed and can't move any higher than that, so Sean McVay may decide he doesn't have much to play for either. |
| Here's how every team's Week 18 outlook looks, with the teams in the first two categories and the last one the most likely to sit their starters this weekend: |
| Teams that have nothing to play for in Week 18 because they locked up the No. 1 seed in their conferences: Ravens, 49ersTeams that have nothing to play for because they are effectively locked into a playoff spot: Browns, Rams, ChiefsTeams that absolutely have to win in Week 18: Bills, Jaguars, Colts, Texans, Steelers, Buccaneers, Packers, Seahawks, Saints, Vikings, FalconsTeams that really want to win in Week 18: Dolphins, Cowboys, Lions, EaglesTeams that have nothing to play for because they are eliminated from the playoffs: Bengals, Broncos, Raiders, Jets, Chargers, Titans, Patriots, Bears, Giants, Commanders, Cardinals, Panthers |
| Now, all of those teams in the bottom category may not rest any starters even though they have nothing to play for, because, well ... they don't have playoffs to worry about getting healthy for. We've already seen the Broncos and Commanders turn to backup quarterbacks (at least before injuries), but the Bears still actually have a lot at stake in Week 18, as they have a very tough decision to make about Justin Fields' future. They're likely to keep their starters out there the entire game to get one more look at him, at least. |
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| Week 18 Rankings |
| If you're looking for players to add for Week 18, Jamey Eisenberg's Waiver Wire column is right here for you. But, remember that a lot is going to change between now and Saturday's first lineup locks of the week, as we learn who will be sitting out and who will be playing. |
| This means those waiver targets may be obsolete by then, and these rankings may be too. More than any other week, competing in Week 18 requires you to stay as up-to-date as possible as late as possible into the week on news to know who will be available. It's why we don't recommend playing into Week 18! |
| Here are my rankings as of now: |
| QB Rankings |
| Jalen Hurts @NYGJosh Allen @MIA Lamar Jackson vs. PITJustin Fields @GBDak Prescott @WAS Matthew Stafford @SFKyler Murray vs. SEA Jared Goff vs. MIN C.J. Stroud @INDJordan Love vs. CHI Tua Tagovailoa vs. BUFBaker Mayfield @CAR Gardner Minshew vs. HOU Geno Smith @ARIDerek Carr vs. ATL Brock Purdy vs. LARNIck Mullens @DET Jarrett Stidham @LV Tyrod Taylor vs. PHIJake Browning vs. CLE Patrick Mahomes @LACSam Howell vs. DAL Desmond Ridder @NO Aidan O'Connell vs. DENEaston Stick vs. KC Will Levis vs. JAXBryce Young vs. TB C.J. Beathard @TEN Mason Rudolph @BALTrevor Siemian @NE Joe Flacco @CINBailey Zappe vs. NYJ |
| RB Rankings |
Rachaad White @CARD'Andre Swift @NYG Jahmyr Gibbs vs. MINJonathan Taylor vs. HOU Ezekiel Elliott vs. NYJ De'Von Achane vs. BUFBijan Robinson @NOKyren Williams @SF Breece Hall @NEElijah Mitchell vs. LAR Saquon Barkley vs. PHI Travis Etienne @TENIsiah Pacheco @LAC James Cook @MIATony Pollard @WAS Austin Ekeler vs. KC Joe Mixon vs. CLEAaron Jones vs. CHI Zamir White vs. DENChuba Hubbard vs. TB James Conner vs. SEA David Montgomery vs. MINDevin Singletary @IND Javonte Williams @LVTy Chandler @DET Jaylen Warren @BAL Kenneth Walker @ARIKhalil Herbert @GB Najee Harris @BALDerrick Henry vs. JAX Brian Robinson Jr. vs. DAL Jerome Ford @CINGus Edwards vs. PIT Jamaal Williams vs. ATLAntonio Gibson vs. DAL Tyjae Spears vs. JAX Tyler Allgeier @NOKendre Miller vs. ATL Justice Hill vs. PITRoschon Johnson @GB Jeff Wilson Jr. vs. BUF Alexander Mattison @DETLeonard Fournette @MIA Kenneth Gainwell @NYGChase Brown vs. CLE Zach Charbonnet @ARI Kareem Hunt @CINDalvin Cook @NE
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| WR Rankings |
| CeeDee Lamb @WASAmon-Ra St. Brown vs. MIN AJ Brown @NYGTyreek Hill vs. BUF DJ Moore @GB Davante Adams vs. DENRashee Rice @LAC Justin Jefferson @DETStefon Diggs @MIA Mike Evans @CAR Garrett Wilson @NEChris Olave vs. ATL Nico Collins @INDMichael Pittman vs. HOUPuka Nacua @SF Ja'Marr Chase vs. CLEDevonta Smith @NYG Terry McLaurin vs. DAL DK Metcalf @ARIChris Godwin @CAR Zay Flowers vs. PITDrake London @NO DeAndre Hopkins vs. JAX Tee Higgins vs. CLEGeorge Pickens @BAL Deebo Samuel vs. LARBrandon Aiyuk vs. LAR Cooper Kupp @SF Demarcus Robinson @SFTyler Lockett @ARI Calvin Ridley @TENJakobi Meyers vs. DEN Rashid Shaheed vs. ATL Curtis Samuel vs. DALAdam Thielen vs. TB Brandin Cooks @WASMichael Wilson vs. SEA Jordan Addison @DET Wan'Dale Robinson vs. PHINoah Brown @IND Jerry Jeudy @LVGreg Dortch vs. SEA Diontae Johnson @BAL Romeo Doubs vs. CHIDemario Douglas vs. NYJ Jaxon Smith-Njigba @ARIAlex Erickson vs. KC Gabe Davis @MIA Josh Downs vs. HOUKJ Osborn @DET Bo Melton vs. CHIJahan Dotson vs. DAL Quentin Johnston vs. KC Jonathan Mingo vs. TBElijah Moore @CIN DJ Chark vs. TBTyler Boyd vs. CLEDeVante Parker vs. NYJ Alec Pierce vs. HOUOdell Beckham vs. PIT |
| TE Rankings |
| Travis Kelce @LACTrey McBride vs. SEA Evan Engram @TENSam LaPorta vs. MIN David Njoku @CIN Isaiah Likely vs. PITJake Ferguson @WAS George Kittle vs. LARGerald Everett vs. KC Dalton Schultz @IND Darren Waller vs. PHIJuwan Johnson vs. ATL Kyle Pitts @NODallas Goedert @NYG Durham Smythe vs. BUF Pat Freiermuth @BALLogan Thomas vs. DAL Jonnu Smith @NOCade Otton @CAR Dalton Kincaid @MIA Cole Kmet @GBTaysom Hill vs. ATL Tucker Kraft vs. CHITyler Conklin @NE |
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