| | | | Monday, July 22, 2024 | | Three days back from the All-Star break and we've already got a ton of injuries to contend with. So, as we usually do on Monday, I'm skipping any kind of extended intro and just jumping right into things today, beginning with our Week 18 Preview to help you get those lineups set: | | Week 18 Preview | | | | The key schedule note here is that the Giants are playing eight games this week. The Giants don't have a ton of true everyday players, but it's worth giving Giants like Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler, Mike Yastrzemski, and Thairo Estrada a little bump up in the rankings to reflect their playing time edge. | | Week 18 waiver targets | | Here are the top players to consider adding ahead of Week 18 at each position: | C: Tyler Stephenson, Reds (54%)
1B: Jake Burger, Marlins (48%)
2B: Brandon Lowe, Rays (61%)
3B: Curtis Mead, Rays (9%)
SS: Nacho Alvarez Jr., Braves (2%)
OF: Lawrence Butler , Athletics (39%), Heston Kjerstad, Orioles (51%), Victor Robles, Mariners (2%)
SP: Jackson Jobe, Tigers (30%), Hayden Birdsong, Giants (12%), Robbie Ray, Giants (62%)
RP: Daniel Hudson, Dodgers (30%), Brett Honeywell, Dodgers (1%) | | For more deep-league targets, plus my thoughts on each of those players and more, head here. | | | | Week 18 sleeper hitters | | Best hitter matchups for Week 18: | 1. Giants @LAD4, COL4
2. Athletics HOU3, @LAA4
3. Rockies BOS3, @SF4
4. Orioles @MIA3, SD3
5. Phillies @MIN3, CLE3 | | Worst hitter matchups for Week 18: | 1. Twins PHI3, @DET3
2. Cardinals @PIT3, WAS3
3. Reds @ATL3, @TB3
4. Mets @MIA1, @NYY2, ATL4
5. Tigers @CLE4, MIN3 | | Top sleeper hitters for Week 18: | 1. Jorge Soler, DH, Giants (58%) @LAD4, COL4
2. Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Brewers (77%) @CHC3, MIA3
3. Michael Toglia, 1B, Rockies (33%) BOS3, @SF4
4. Zack Gelof, 2B, Athletics (55%) HOU3, @LAA4
5. Brandon Marsh, OF, Phillies (49%) @MIN3, CLE3 | | Week 18 sleeper pitchers | | You can check out Scott's two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to "no-thanks." | | Top sleeper pitches for Week 18: | 1. Tyler Anderson, Angels (79%) at SEA, vs. OAK
2. Jose Soriano , Angels (40%) at SEA, vs. OAK
3. Michael Lorenzen, Rangers (50%) vs. CHW, at TOR
4. Tobias Myers , Brewers (68%) at CHC, vs. MIA
5. Andrew Heaney, Rangers (36%) at TOR | | | Weekend Standouts
| | Good pitching | | Pablo Lopez, Twins vs. MIL: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – There have been some bumps in the road, but Lopez seems to have mostly stabilized, producing good results in four of his past five starts since his ERA hit a season-worst 5.63 mark on June 18. I can't guarantee it'll be smooth sailing the rest of the way – if I could, this never would have happened! – but I remain very confident that Lopez will pitch like an ace the rest of the way. | | Gerrit Cole, Yankees vs. TB: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – Two starts in a row where Cole looks like himself, so can we just say he's back? Well, not exactly. He's still throwing his cutter more than his slider – 29 times for the cutter vs. six for the slider in this one – and that just hasn't been the path to success for Cole in the past. I wonder if the elbow issue that delayed his season's start is limiting how comfortable he feels to throw the slider? Of course, the cutter generated six whiffs and six more called strikes Friday and was a pretty effective pitch for him last season, so maybe he can remain an ace despite it. I have just enough skepticism that I don't want to buy all the way in, but I'm most of the way there at this point. | | Shota Imanaga, Cubs vs. ARI: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – Imanaga ran into some trouble around the end of May and middle of June, but he's allowed just seven runs over his past four starts, all of them quality in that stretch, with 27 strikeouts in 25 innings of work. Surely, he must have changed something in that time, right? Uh … not really. He's still throwing his fastball and splitter about 85-90% of the time, with a curveball, sweeper, or (very) rare cutter sprinkled in. Sunday, the sweeper played up a bit, with four of his 19 swinging strikes coming on that pitch, but for the most part, he looks like the same guy he did both when things were going well in April and May and then when he was giving up tons of homers. He might just be that kind of pitcher. But it's worth noting that "that kind of pitcher" means a 2.86 ERA and 3.26 FIP (and 3.53 xERA entering this start), which is a very valuable kind of pitcher. | | | | Taj Bradley , Rays @NYY: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – Bradley threw his splitter more than 30% of the time for the first time on May 26, and it's hard to ignore the trends since. He had a .343 expected wOBA in the month of May as a whole, a number that has fallen to .318 in June and then to .230 in June. He's still throwing his cutter and curveball about 30% of the time between them, but the switch to prioritizing more north/south movement has clearly paid off for Bradley who has a 2.20 ERA with 67 strikeouts in 57.1 innings over 10 starts since making that switch. At this point, the question is, "How high is too high to rank Bradley?" I think he can be a top-36 pitcher the rest of the way. | | Michael King, Padres @CLE: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – I'm just gonna take two Ls here. One, for my preseason skepticism of King. The second for doubling down on that skepticism after his miserable first month of the season. Since May 1, King has a 2.55 ERA with the peripherals to back it up, plus 95 strikeouts in 81 innings of work. I still have concerns about how he'll hold up – King is already at 118 innings this season, more than he has thrown at any level since 2018 – but I also didn't think he'd make it this long, pitching this well, either. | | Nick Pivetta, Red Sox @LAD: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – The thing about consistently inconsistent pitchers is, they'll also go through stretches where they pitch really well! Pivetta is in one such stretch right now, with 28 strikeouts to five walks and a 1.83 ERA over his past three starts. One notable change during this stretch is renewed focus on his sweeper, which Pivetta has thrown 32.2% of the time so far in July, compared to below 20% in June. That pitch was key to his breakout in the second half last season, and it's suddenly starting to look as effective as it did when he introduced it last season, with his whiff rate for the season up to 38.9% and his xwOBA down to .209, easily the best marks of his pitches. History suggests we shouldn't expect Pivetta to keep this up, but if he can keep that pitch front and center, maybe he can. | | Seth Lugo, Royals vs. CHW: 9 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – Lugo has faced the White Sox three times and he has allowed two earned runs in 22.2 innings of work, despite a relatively paltry 13 strikeouts. I still don't buy Lugo as a difference maker for Fantasy – his 3.93 xERA for the season agrees – but if you can't trade him for one, I'm also fine continuing to lean on him until things turn. Especially with the Cubs and Tigers scheduled for his next two starts. | | Matt Waldron , Padres @CLE: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – "Why doesn't this pitcher just throw his best pitch more?" is a kind of analysis that often oversimplifies the game needlessly, but in the case of Waldron, it's hard to argue against it. His knuckleball is a great pitch, and his success has been so closely tied to his increased usage of that pitch that it just didn't make sense why he started to go away from it the past few starts. He reversed that trend Friday in a big way, throwing it a season-high 58.8% of the time, and well … The thing is, the rest of Waldron's arsenal just doesn't seem very good, so while it's fine to mix other things in, the knuckleball should be the priority. | | Brandon Pfaadt, Diamondbacks @CHC: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – I've never been much of a believer in Pfaadt, but he's on a heck of a run these days, allowing just two runs in his past four starts. That came with 25 strikeouts and only three walks in 23.1 innings, and Sunday, a very good changeup that generated four of his 13 whiffs. He's been entirely too reliant on his sweeper for whiffs this season, so if that changeup can be a legitimate weapon, I might be more willing to buy in. For the most part, I think Pfaadt is just a decent pitcher enjoying a nice run, but I'm open to more than that. | | Bryan Woo , Mariners vs. HOU: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – I want to buy into Woo. I really do. But he's thrown more than 80 pitches once all season (only 73 in this one) and just really doesn't have a non-fastball he can rely on consistently – he threw his sinker and four-seamer a combined 77% of the time. That's not a workable approach in the majors these days, even if you have a really good fastball, which Woo has. There just aren't going to be enough innings or strikeouts here to make Woo a must-start Fantasy option unless his profile seriously changes. I don't know if anyone is buying, but he seems like the most obvious sell-high candidate in the game right now. | | Andrew Abbott, Reds @WAS: 6.2 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 1 K – So, that's a 2.31 ERA in the month of July even with a blowup against the Marlins in his last start. That despite just 15 strikeouts to 11 walks in 23.1 innings of work. It's funny, to me. I'm laughing, actually. He can't keep getting away with this. He can't. | | Drew Thorpe, White Sox vs. KC: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – The ERA is down to 3.03 for the season, but it's hard to find much to be excited about with Thorpe otherwise. If you're looking for one thing, look to his slider, which generated seven of his whopping 18 whiffs Sunday, the first time anything but the changeup has really worked for Thorpe against big-leaguers – that slider had a whopping 17.2% whiff rate entering Sunday. Which is to say, I'm still selling Thorpe and his 4.66 FIP if I can. | | Bad Pitching | | Sonny Gray, Cardinals @ATL: 7 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 10 K – Nothing is going right for Gray right now. In three starts in July, he had a .350 xwOBA or higher on his sinker, four-seamer, sweeper, cutter, and changeup; the curveball is the only exception among Gray's six-pitch arsenal. By comparison, the four-seamer is the only pitch that had a .350 or higher xwOBA prior to July. Gray is still generating a ton of strikeouts, and prior to Saturday, homers hadn't really been an issue, so I'm mostly willing to write this one off as a slump. But it's tough to trust him right now, even with a nice matchup against the Nationals on the way. | | Justin Steele, Cubs vs. ARI: 4.2 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – When you throw seven straight quality starts, you are allowed a stinker without anyone getting worried. Steele generated decent whiffs and strikeouts in this one and allowed just three hard-hit balls, so I'd be inclined to dismiss this even if he wasn't coming off arguably the best stretch of his career. | | Nick Lodolo, Reds @WAS: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – Lodolo's last quality start came on June 18. Since then, he has given up 13 runs with 19 strikeouts and 10 walks in 19.1 innings of work. That's all, obviously, quite bad. But if you were hoping to get a simple explanation for why things have gone so wrong for Lodolo, I don't really have one. His curveball has remained excellent, and his changeup is good enough , generating a .177 wOBA in 10 PA in July. The biggest problem is the fastballs, both of which have gotten absolutely crushed lately, though it's not clear why – the velocity on his four-seamer and sinker are both actually up, and the movement profiles for both look much like they have in the past. I'm willing to chalk it up to a slump and struggles executing, but it'd be really nice if he gave us some reason to be optimistic in his next start against the Rays. I'm starting him there absent compelling alternatives. | | Mackenzie Gore, Nationals vs. CIN: 2 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 2 K – I think the simplest explanation for Gore's recent struggles is probably mechanical. I'm not smart enough to know exactly what the issue is, but Gore got derailed as a prospect due to issues repeating his complex delivery and throwing strikes as a result, and with 12 walks in his past three starts (and 19 over the past six), that seems like a pretty good explanation. His velocity has also trended down as the season has gone on, which may or may not be connected. Gore showed early on he still has difference-making upside, but he's shown since that he's not nearly a finished product and may never be. I remain hopeful that he'll put it all together at some point, but I also can't blame you if you decide to give up at this point. He hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt to overlook these kinds of struggles. | | Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers vs. BAL: 5 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 2 K – We've seen enough second-half swoons from Eovaldi to be on alert for these kinds of outings, and Eovaldi's velocity was down about 1 mph across the board. That's usually the canary in the coal mine for Eovaldi, so we'll keep an eye on his next outing before hitting the panic button. | | Shane Baz, Rays @NYY: 3.1 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 5 BB, 1 K – Baz just isn't quite there yet. Physically, he seems okay, but the arsenal just isn't quite sharp enough yet – he had just four whiffs Sunday on 76 pitches and continues to have trouble generating whiffs with his non-fastballs especially. I'm definitely trying to keep Baz stashed for the upside, but you can't start him until he shows the ability to generate consistent swinging strikes with his slider and curveball. | | Gavin Williams, Guardians vs. SD: 3.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – Williams has traded sliders for cutters since coming back from his elbow injury, and until he shows the ability to generate swinging strikes with that cutter like he did with the slider last season, I just don't really see a path to Fantasy upside here. Saturday's start saw him generate just one whiff with his non-fastballs, and that just isn't a workable approach in the majors at this point. This is another one I would prefer to not give up on, but I'll admit, I did drop him in one league this weekend to add Ignacio Alvarez – I needed the hitting help more than a pitching stash I can't start right now. | | Spencer Schwellenbach , Braves vs. STL: 6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – I don't think Schwellenbach has the upside Baz or Williams does, but I do think he's a lot closer to being useful for Fantasy than either. He's got multiple swing-and-miss pitches, most notably his splitter, which generated nine of his 21 swinging strikes Sunday. He needs to find ways to pitch in the strike zone more consistently without giving up hard contact, and that's been an issue with his four-seamer and cutter so far. If Schwellenbach can figure that out, I still think there's plenty of upside here, as evidenced by his 3.53 xERA entering Sunday. | | Hitters | | Freddie Freeman, 1B, Dodgers – Freeman has been a bit of a disappointment this season, especially as a power hitter. But he clubbed six homers in June en route to a 1.033 OPS, and he's up to four so far in July after going 4 for 12 with two more homers against the Red Sox this weekend. I'm expecting a huge second half. | | Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays – It was a tough first couple of months for Arozarena, but he's basically been what you hoped for since the start of June, hitting .292 with seven homers and seven steals in 40 games – a 28-steal pace over a full season. Of course, those paces are helped by three homers between Saturday and Sunday's games. I expect Arozarena to be a must-start outfielder in all categories leagues moving forward. | | Gabriel Moreno, C, Diamondbacks – Maybe Moreno is just a second-half player? He was significantly better after the break last season, and he's starting to show signs of life this summer, too. Moreno went 4 for 8 this weekend and is hitting .340/.436/.489 since the start of July. He doesn't bring much power or speed to the table, so he's very dependent on hits falling in for his Fantasy appeal. That's happening right now, so if you want to play the hot hand with your No. 2 catcher, he's fine to add. | | George Springer, OF, Blue Jays – The past month has been very good for Springer, who is now hitting .372 with eight homers and 25 RBI over the past 22 games after his two-homer game Sunday against the Tigers. Of course, it took all that just to get his season OPS up above .700 in late July, so you are forgiven if you didn't quite notice. But Springer has bounced back in a big way, and in a way that his underlying numbers mostly suggest should be sustainable – at the very least, I'll take the over on his current .711 OPS the rest of the way. | | Jackson Chourio , OF, Brewers – Here's something to keep in mind with Chouiro: He won't be able to drink legally in the United States until next year's Spring Training. He's been a disappointment this season, for sure, but he's also up to 10 homers and 12 steals before the end of July, and is hitting .338 over the past 20 games after he went 5 for 9 over Saturday and Sunday. He always seemed like a player who might just put it all together in the second half after adjusting to the majors, and it looks like that's exactly what he's doing. I'm expecting him to be a must-start outfielder down the stretch. | | Byron Buxton, OF, Twins – I know there are some who just don't really believe in Buxton's abilities even beyond his health issues, but those people are just wrong. Buxton homered two more times Sunday and is now hitting .301/.354/.577 since coming back from the IL in mid-May. That's a 35-homer pace, and he's thrown in four steals on top of that for good measure. As long as Buxton is on the field, he's a must-start player in any categories league. | | News and notes | | Rough weekend of injuries for the Atlanta Braves. First up, Ozzie Albies suffered a left wrist fracture and will miss approximately eight weeks, which takes us up to late September. If you don't have any IL spots to play with, Albies is droppable given that timetable. Ignacio Alvarez is expected to be called up from Triple-A to replace Albies, and he's worth adding in OBP and categories leagues, because there's legitimate upside on the on-base and speed front there, even if he's unlikely to hit for much power. | | Additionally, Max Fried went on the IL with left forearm neuritis. Manager Brian Snitker said Sunday that an MRI cleared Fried of any soft-tissue damage, which is important, because we saw a similar situation with Jeffrey Springs last season, where his nerve damage was caused by a damaged UCL that ultimately required surgery to repair. We don't know what the underlying injury causing Fried's issue is if anything, but if there is no structural damage, it's possible Fried could come back relatively quickly. | | Ryan Pepiot was placed on the IL with a right knee infection. He'll need the infection to go away and then the swelling to go down before the Rays will have a timetable for his return, but I'm trying to stash him if I can. | | Julio Rodriguez exited Sunday after crashing into the outfield wall. He underwent X-rays on his right ankle, which came back negative. Manager Scott Servais said J-Rod is day to day with a little bit of an ankle sprain, but that's also the kind of injury that can take a day to really know the full extent of. I'm hopeful Rodriguez won't have to miss much time, but I'm approaching this week as if I won't have him available. | | Reese Olson was placed on the IL with a right shoulder strain. This might be a relatively minor issue, but shoulders are often tricky, and it wouldn't be surprising at all if Olson's absence was counted in months, not weeks. We'll see if the Tigers opt to call top pitching prospect Jackson Jobe up, and he's worth stashing if you are in the kind of league where prospects tend to be stashed long before their debuts. He is Scott White's top prospect as of the midseason update. | | Chris Paddack went on the IL with a right forearm strain. | | Hayden Wesneski also went on the IL with a right forearm strain. | | Zack Wheeler is scheduled to start Tuesday against the Twins. He missed his final start before the All-Star break due to back spasms. His teammate Ranger Suarez will start Monday against the Twins. He also missed his final start before the break with back tightness. I'm starting both this week. | | Tyler Glasnow will return from the IL to start Wednesday against the Giants, and I'm starting Glasnow this week as well. | | Kyle Tucker participated in "intense defensive drills" Saturday as he works his way back from that shin injury. He remains without a timetable, but I'd be surprised if we saw Tucker before August at this point. | | Mookie Betts played catch Friday, his first time doing so since fracturing his left hand. | | Mike Trout has been facing live pitching at the Angels' spring training complex and is expected to start a rehab assignment at Triple-A Monday. He could be back by next week if all goes well. | | Yoshinobu Yamamoto said Sunday that he's been playing catch out to 200 feet but he has yet to receive clearance for mound work and admitted he's without a clear timeline to return. However, his goal remains to return this season and he isn't feeling any pain in his shoulder at this point. | | Bo Bichette was placed on the IL with a right calf strain for the second time this season. An MRI revealed the strain is moderate and he'll likely miss multiple weeks. I dropped Bichette in one league where I didn't have an IL spot to put him in. | | Carlos Correa was placed on the IL with right plantar fasciitis, which is worrisome because this is something Correa has a history of, though last year's issues were on the other foot, so hopefully, it will be less of a problem for him. Edouard Julien was recalled and started both Saturday and Sunday. He's worth adding as a MI in OBP leagues, at least. | | JT Realmuto was activated from the IL Saturday. He's been out since June 11 after undergoing right meniscus surgery and should be a must-start catcher the rest of the way, though I do wonder if they'll give him a bit more extra rest and perhaps have him be less active on the bases to keep him fresh for the playoffs. | | Clayton Kershaw will make his season debut Thursday against the Giants. He built up to 67 pitches in his final rehab start Friday, allowing three runs over four innings. I don't mind the matchup, but I'd prefer to see Kershaw succeed coming off the injury before I start him. | | Kodai Senga had a rough rehab outing at Triple-A this weekend, allowing 5 ER on eight hits over three innings. After the start, he said his body feels good. It sounds like he could make his season debut this Friday against the Braves. | | Max Scherzer left his start after two innings Saturday with arm fatigue. He allowed four runs with just one strikeout and his FB was down 1.3 MPH. The 39-year-old has dealt with a bunch of different injuries this season and might just not be able to hold up to a full-time starting workload at this point. I'm viewing anything I get from Scherzer at this point as a bonus. | | Kenley Jansen will not travel with the Red Sox to Colorado as a result of his pre-existing heart condition. Brennan Bernardino and Zack Kelly could see save opportunities in Jansen's absence. | | Robbie Ray made another rehab start Friday, this time at Triple-A, and he looked great, striking out seven over 5.1 innings. He's an intriguing stash as he gets closer to returning, something that could happen in the next week or so. | | Jacob deGrom threw a bullpen Friday and mixed in some sliders for the first time. This was his third bullpen session as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. | | Yandy Diaz was placed on the restricted list while he tends to a personal matter. Curtis Mead was recalled. | | Jacob Wilson got called up on Friday and immediately hurt his hamstring after getting his first MLB hit. He was placed on the IL Sunday with a left hamstring strain and will miss at least a few weeks. | | Joe Musgrove threw 30 pitches in a bullpen session Saturday, his second bullpen since going on the IL. | | Justin Verlander threw 40 pitches during a bullpen session Saturday. He's been out since June 18 with a neck injury. | | Evan Carter will take batting practice on the field at Globe Life Field on Tuesday. He's been out since May 28 with a lower-back stress reaction. I still think he has plenty of upside and is worth stashing if you have the IL spot to play with. | | The Yankees will likely decide on a return date for Giancarlo Stanton by the end of this upcoming week. He ran the bases on Friday, his first time doing so since suffering a left hamstring strain, but probably won't be back before August. | | Ty France was placed on waivers by the Mariners on Sunday. Tyler Locklear will get the majority of the chances at first base and is worth a look in AL-only leagues. | | Josiah Gray will undergo season-ending surgery Wednesday to repair a partial tear of the UCL in his right elbow. | | | | | | | | 24/7 Sports News | | Golazo Network | Stay up to date on all the sports you love with CBS Sports HQ. We bring you the top stories, news, picks, highlights and more anywhere, anytime, all the time.
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