| | | | Monday, June 30, 2025 | | We've got a whole bunch of injury news and major performances to get to this weekend, so there's no need for a long intro this week. Let's just get right to everything you need to know before you set your lineup for Week 15 of the Fantasy Baseball season. | | Week 15 Preview | | | | Before we get to everything you need to know from this weekend's action, just a reminder that Jurickson Profar is back from his suspension Wednesday, is hitting well at Triple-A, and was a must-start hitter last season, so make sure he's not still available on your league's wire. Now, let's get those lineups set, with some help from Scott White and I. | | | | Week 15 waiver targets | C: Gary Sanchez, Orioles (16%) 1B: Michael Toglia, Rockies (29%)
2B: Caleb Durbin, Brewers (24%)3B: Nolan Gorman, Cardinals (10%) SS: Ernie Clement, Blue Jays (37%)OF: Austin Hays, Reds (47%), Jo Adell, Angels (70%), Spencer Steer, Reds (67%)SP: Jacob Lopez, Athletics (67%), Kumar Rocker, Rangers (27%), Eduardo Rodriguez, Diamondbacks (61%) RP: Matt Strahm, Phillies (12%), Mike Soroka, Nationals (38%) | | For more deep-league targets, plus my thoughts on each of those players and more, head here. | | Week 15 sleeper hitters | | Best hitter matchups for Week 15 | 1. Rockies HOU3, CHW3
2. Rangers BAL3, @SD3
3. Giants @ARI4, @ATH3
4. Astros @COL3, @LAD3
5. White Sox @LAD3, @COL3 | | | | Worst hitter matchups for Week 15 | 1. Reds @BOS3, @PHI3
2. Phillies SD3, CIN3
3. Mets MIL3, NYY3
4. Orioles @TEX3, @ATL3
5. Guardians @CHC3, DET3 | | Top sleeper hitters for Week 15 | | Jo Adell, OF, Angels (63%) @ATL3, @TOR3Ryan McMahon, 3B, Rockies (52%) HOU3, CHW3Jordan Beck, OF, Rockies (46%) HOU3, CHW3 Cam Smith, OF, Astros (77%) @COL3, @LAD3 Josh H. Smith, SS, Rangers (73%) BAL3, @SD3 | | Week 15 sleeper pitchers | | You can check out Scott's two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to no-thanks. | | Top sleeper pitchers for Week 15 | | Jacob Lopez, Athletics (67%) at TB, vs. SFRyne Nelson, Diamondbacks (36%) vs. SF, vs. KCDustin May, Dodgers (79%) vs. CHWEduardo Rodriguez, Diamondbacks (59%) vs. KCWill Warren, Yankees (78%) at TOR | | | | Weekend Standouts | | Good pitchers | | Sonny Gray , Cardinals @CLE: 9 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 11 K – So, let's see the past six starts for Gray: 0 ER, 0 ER, 6 ER, 1 ER, 0 ER. The latter, of course, being this start, one of the most impressive performances by any pitcher all season. He's frustrating. The blow-ups are ugly – he had another seven-run outing in mid-May, too. But, on the whole, Gray tends to be pretty great, as his 3.36 ERA and 1.09 WHIP attest. The strikeout rate hasn't been quite as impressive as last season's, but the upside is obviously still there. Gray is probably more like a high-3.00s ERA guy, but in the long run, you'll be happy you left him in your lineup more often than not. | | Spencer Strider, Braves vs. PHI: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – When players are in decline, they'll often still have flashes of their previous level of performance. Strider had those two starts in mid-June, where he struck out 21 and walked just two over 12 innings, and generally just looked like his pre-injury form. The question in the wake of those starts was this: Was that the start of him reestablishing that elite baseline, or just a sign of what the ceiling can still look like? With 12 strikeouts to seven walks in 12 innings over his next two shakier starts, it sure looks like the latter, no? I'm certainly not writing Strider off, but I do think the baseline here is just a tier or two lower than it was before his elbow surgery, mostly because the command isn't there yet and the stuff is just a little bit worse. The ceiling is still high, but the margin for error is just slimmer. Still great, but not the best pitcher in baseball? Yeah, that's where I'm at. | | Seth Lugo, Royals vs. LAD: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 5 BB, 8 K – If you've been reading this column since last year, you'll know I really struggled to figure out Lugo. As good as he was, his peripherals didn't quite back it up, with his xERA sitting three-quarters of a run higher than his actual 3.00 ERA last season. This season, his control and quality of contact metrics have taken a significant step back, his xERA is up to 4.63 … and of course, his ERA is now down to 2.74 on the season after this start against the Dodgers . He's just continuing to defy the best tools we have for predicting. I still have faith that those tools will lead us in the right direction in the long run, and I'm viewing Lugo as maybe the most obvious sell-high candidate in baseball right now. I'm pretty sure I said that last June, too, of course. | | Nick Martinez, Reds vs. SD: 8 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – Martinez gave up seven runs in 2.2 innings on June 19, made two relief appearances, and then somehow does this? Anyone who tells you predicting what's going to happen in any given baseball game has no idea what they're talking about. Martinez has been pretty up and down lately, and while I think he's just an okay start for this week against the Red Sox, it looks like he's lineup for a two-start week against the Marlins and Rockies the following week before the All-Star break, and you'll definitely want him around for that one. | | Jose Berrios, Blue Jays @BOS: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – We're going on three straight seasons and 450-plus innings of Berrios outpitching his xERA by nearly a run, so there's clearly something that particular metric is missing. Of course, he's still prone to ERA-inflating blowups, the most recent of which came two starts ago when the Phillies lit him up for six runs in 4.2 innings of work. Such is life for a good-not-great pitcher like Berrios. | | Kumar Rocker, Rangers vs. SEA: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Rocker is thriving without even throwing what was supposed to be his best pitch, that killer mid-80s slider/curve/slurve thing he was using as arguably his primary pitch when he debuted last season. He's largely scrapped that over the past few starts, opting instead for a harder cutter around 90 mph and his slower curveball in the high-70s. It makes sense, because Rocker's traditional fastballs just aren't very good, especially his four-seamer, so he's leaning on the cutter as both an early-count pitch and as a putaway. It's working, so now here's the question: Can he reintroduce that slider without losing the effectiveness of the cutter? If so, it could really help him take off, but I'm intrigued enough by this latest iteration of Rocker that I'm trying to add him pretty much everywhere I can for now. | | Lucas Giolito , Red Sox vs. TOR: 7 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Giolito's in the midst of a pretty excellent stretch, going at least six innings in four straight, with only three earned runs allowed in that span. He hasn't faced any difficult matchups in that span, but still, he's getting major-leaguers out, and that's something that looked like a question mark through his first seven starts. I still think the stuff isn't terribly impressive yet – even in June, none of his pitches had a whiff rate over 28.3% – but I can't deny the results right now. I'm not ranking Giolito as a top-50 SP or anything, but I think he's a fine starter against the Nationals, with a choice matchup against the Rockies coming next week, too. | | Brandon Walter , Astros vs. CHC: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – I feel like Walter is playing a dangerous game right now. He has iffy stuff, but is commanding it extremely well, leading to just a 1.6% walk rate, which helps explain his 3.34 ERA despite a merely decent 24.6% strikeout rate. If he can sustain this level of free pass-avoidance, a 25% strikeout rate is more than good enough, but Walter's walk rate was more than double this in Triple-A, so there's certainly some regression coming. And when it comes, I suspect the ERA will start with a four. Starting him in Coors Field this week is risky, but it could pay off. | | Will Warren, Yankees vs. ATH: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 7 K – Warren is so close to really figuring it out. He's just gotta iron out these occasional control issues, which he mostly did in June – his 3.49 BB/9 in June makes his 2.86 ERA look decidedly non-coincidental, given how good he is at missing bats. The problem is, it was two starts of four walks each, and then just three in the other three. If he finds some consistency with the walk rate, Warren could really take off. Maybe we're at the start of it. I hope so, but I think he's a pretty fringe-y starter against the Blue Jays this week until I know for sure. | | David Festa, Twins @DET: 5.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – Speaking of pitchers we need to see more from, Festa finally settled in with a nice start here. It wasn't dominant – the six strikeouts are nice, but nine whiffs on 75 pitches is just fine – and it's another instance of needing to see a lot more before you can trust it. But Festa's slider and changeup once again look like very good swing-and-miss pitches if he can just get himself into more situations where he could deploy them. It might not be a bad idea to swap out more of his four-seamers for that new sinker, which has a similar whiff rate but much better quality of contact results so far. | | Jack Leiter, Rangers vs. SEA: 6 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – Leiter faded his sinker in this one, and that's probably not a bad idea, since it's been the worst pitch for him by whiff rate and the second worst by xwOBA allowed. Otherwise, he had the slider and curveball really cooking, and he filled up the strike zone well enough to avoid the walks that often derail Leiter's starts. It's just one good start amid a pretty crummy run, and Leiter hasn't really had any kind of sustained success at the MLB level, so we'll say this is something to watch, but not much more than that yet. | | Adrian Houser, White Sox vs. SF: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Houser is mildly interesting, I suppose. He's not nearly as good as his 1.90 ERA, of course, but his xERA is 3.65, and while it's been a while since he's actually pitched anywhere near that level, he is throwing harder this season, which makes it easier to buy into. The ceiling is low, and his team will hold him back, but I don't mind streaming Houser against the Rockies this week if I need an arm. | | Justin Wrobleski, Dodgers @KC: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – The Fantasy community was downright distraught when the Dodgers opted to send Emmett Sheehan down and keep Wrobleski around, but Wrobleski is doing some interesting stuff in his own right. Still working primarily as a bulk reliever, Wrobleski now has a 2.73 ERA with 26 strikeouts in 26.1 innings in the month of June, thanks in large part to a high-whiff fastball from the left side. Wrobleski was a pretty interesting prospect coming into the season, but his track record of success at the MLB level doesn't stretch longer than this good month, so I'm not saying he's someone who needs to be rostered in most leagues. But he's definitely a name to keep an eye on, especially if the Dodgers give him a look as a real starter soon. | | Bad pitching performances | | Bailey Ober, Twins @DET: 5.2 IP, 11 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – I almost dropped Ober this week, and I'm sure plenty of you already did. I think at some point he'll be a good Fantasy pitcher again, but he's clearly not right now. Maybe he'll get some time off and figure it out in the second half, or maybe it'll take until next season, but I do want to be there when Ober gets right. He just isn't right now, and you absolutely cannot start him until we see at least a couple of good starts in a row from him. | | Logan Gilbert, Mariners @TEX: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Gilbert has been a bit off since coming off the IL, but I don't really see much to be worried about. His stuff still looks as good as ever, and his xERA (2.66) and FIP (3.09) are both excellent. My concern level is basically zero at this point. | | Dylan Cease, Padres @CIN: 4 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 8 K – The problem with Cease is it doesn't even seem like the kind of guy you can just play matchups with if you don't feel like you can trust him otherwise. Just in the past month, he's dominated the Dodgers only to fail to even finish five innings against the Reds and Pirates. Cease's biggest enemy in any given start is himself, and if he has his command going, he's going to be hard to beat against any lineup. And he's the kind of pitcher who seemingly turns it off and on without any warning either way. Which is all to say … I'm going to just leave him in my lineup and hope the next start is the one where he figures it all out and goes on one of those runs. Because I certainly don't want to miss those runs. | | Nathan Eovaldi , Rangers vs. SEA: 3 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – The Rangers brought Eovaldi back from his triceps injury without a minor-league rehab assignment, so he only threw 45 pitches in this one. The struggles make sense, as does the fact that his velocity was down 0.8 mph on his four-seamer and cutter. Eovaldi will probably work up to around 60 pitches in his next outing, and will probably continue to be limited for at least a few more starts, so I'm looking ahead more at him as a second-half pitcher right now. Keep him stashed on the bench and give him a long leash for the next few starts, because it could be rocky. | | Ryan Pepiot, Rays @BAL: 1.2 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 1 K – This one was frustrating because Pepiot's been really solid lately, posting a 2.86 ERA with 57 strikeouts in his previous 10 starts dating back to May 1. He just didn't have anything going for him, allowing nine batted balls all with an exit velocity over 95 mph. The Orioles would go on to score 22 runs in this one, and it just seems like one of those games where it just didn't matter who was starting. I'm not going to be too concerned about this one, given how good he's been lately. | | Eury Perez , Marlins @ARI: 4.1 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K – The good news is the stuff still looks great and Perez is limiting hard contact well, which bodes well if and when his command comes around. We've seen plenty of pitchers coming back from major elbow surgery struggle for a month or so before locking in, and I'm hoping Perez will follow the same path. Is it guaranteed? Of course not, and Perez really doesn't look particularly useful for Fantasy right now, having failed to even finish the fifth inning in any of his first four starts. But he's still very much within the grace period for a pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery, so I'm choosing not to be too concerned here. Keep him stashed on your bench until the light flicks on. | | David Peterson, Mets @PIT: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – Here's the warning sign for guys like Lugo and Berrios who are outpitching their expected stats by such a large margin. Peterson was doing that for over a year, dating back to the 2024 season, but he's given a lot of that back with 10 runs over his past two starts. Peterson's ERA still sits at a very solid 3.30, but without big-time strikeout upside and with average (or worse) control and quality of contact skills, I'm expecting things to continue to be worse for him moving forward. That 4.19 xERA still looks more like what I'm expecting from Peterson, and if you have a chance to sell-high on him right now, I would be trying to take it. | | Noah Cameron , Royals vs. LAD: 4 IP, 3 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – It's kind of the same story for Cameron, who had a 0.85 ERA through his first five MLB starts and now has a 5.85 mark over the past four. If you only added him for one or two of those good starts and have kept him active since, you've given back whatever good he did for you early on. Cameron still hasn't shown much strikeout upside, and his control has been iffy at times, so this regression comes as very little surprise. I'm not writing him off entirely as a useful Fantasy option moving forward, but I think he's just a streamer at this point. The good news is, his next two starts are in Seattle and then vs. Pittsburgh, both of which are good enough matchups that I think he can be useful, at least. | | Tomoyuki Sugano, Orioles vs. TB: 5 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – Not to belabor the point further, but … yeah, this is what happens when you "play the hot hand;" eventually, you'll get burnt. Sugano was dancing around homer issues all season, but they caught up to him in June, and he now has an 8.15 ERA over the past four starts. He just gives up way too much contact and doesn't limit hard contact nearly well enough to get away with it. Hope you dropped him before he totally wrecked your ERA. | | Hitters | | Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics – It sure looks like Kurtz has arrived. Since coming back from the IL on June 9, he is hitting .271/.320/.614 with seven homers, and while the strikeout rate is a little elevated at 29.3%, that's mostly manageable for a player with his kind of power. I think there will probably be some ups and downs along the way because of Kurtz's contact issues, but the power is going to be there, and if he cuts the strikeout rate to closer to 25%, there's gigantic upside here. | | Cam Smith, OF, Astros – Rookies need some time, is the lesson here. Smith looked pretty overmatched early on, which is no surprise, as he was making his MLB debut less than a year after being drafted, while learning a new position on the fly. But he started to make more consistent contact in May, and he built on that by adding power in June, hitting four homers in his past 12 games. Smith's xwOBA over the past 100 PA is up to .399, an elite mark. I don't think Smith is suddenly an elite hitter, but that was always the ceiling for him, and now he's starting to show it. At the very least, he needs to be 100% rostered in all leagues just in case this is what it looks like when he figures it out. | | Spencer Steer, OF, Reds – All of a sudden, Steer is hitting .315/.333/.543 in the month of June. Sure, a three-homer game Friday followed by another two-hit game Sunday is carrying a lot of the load there, but it's not just one hot weekend; Steer has multiple hits in seven of his past 11 games and is the No. 2 first baseman over the past two weeks of the Fantasy season. His quality-of-contact metrics are still pretty terrible for the season, but his xwOBA has crept up to .326 over the past 50 plate appearances, which would be his best for a season since 2023. He might not be totally finished yet. | | News and notes | | Astros GM Dana Brown said Sunday there's a chance that Yordan Alvarez joins the Astros next weekend against the Dodgers, but added it's "not the most likely scenario". Alvarez is recovering from a fractured hand but was able to do some batting practice this weekend, so he's moving in the right direction, finally. | | Bryce Harper took swings in live batting practice Saturday. Assuming he doesn't experience any setbacks with his right wrist, he could return on Monday. | | Wyatt Langford was placed on the IL Friday due to a left oblique strain, retroactive to June 25. He has now suffered injuries to his oblique on both sides, which is concerning, given how those injuries tend to linger. | | Tyler Glasnow is expected to require at least two more rehab appearances before being activated by the Dodgers. | | Sticking with the Dodgers, Blake Snell is "probably not" close to facing hitters, according to Dave Roberts. He's working his way back from his own shoulder injury. | | Emmet Sheehan's next start will come at Triple-A, after which they'll consider promoting him back to the rotation. He's been electric in his return from Tommy John surgery and remains worth stashing as long as he's in the Dodgers' plans. | | Jeremy Pena has missed two straight after being hit by a pitch in his ribs Friday. He's a risky start this week, especially since the Astros don't play until Tuesday. | | Josh Naylor has missed two straight with neck stiffness. We should know if he's back in the lineup Monday, though the Diamondbacks are the late game on the slate, so check lineups to see if he's in before lock. | | Hunter Goodman has missed four straight due to left hamstring tightness. The Rockies are also not playing until Tuesday, so starting Goodman comes with some risk of a zero. | | Kerry Carpenter left Sunday night baseball with a right hamstring injury. | | Shane Bieber is expected to progress to live BP this week. He's still building up after TJ surgery. He is 55% rostered, which sounds about right for a guy who is probably around a month away from returning, I would guess | | Yu Darvish threw three simulated innings against Single-A hitters on Wednesday. He threw 51 pitches, and his fastball topped out at 94.5 MPH. He's seemingly closer to returning than Bieber, though I'm less sure he'll be good, so his 61% roster rate feels about right. | | Luis Gil is expected to work up to about 35 pitches in a live session this week, and if all goes well, could be sent on a rehab assignment. He is 54% rostered, which actually feels low, seeing as he's closer to a return than Bieber in all likelihood and has similar upside – and the floor for both is you drop them very quickly if they look bad. | | Nestor Cortes threw two simulated innings Friday and is expected to begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Wednesday. He's a very, very low priority stash for me, but if you have the roster space to play with, it's fine. | | Jordan Westburg aggravated the injury to his left index finger Friday and then missed Saturday and Sunday. The expectation is that he won't go on the IL, but it might be for the best if he did. | | Luis Robert was placed on the IL due to a left hamstring strain. | | Royce Lewis could return from his rehab assignment as early as Tuesday. He has really struggled over the past year (when healthy), but I still want to chase the upside he has shown in the past, so I'll stash him wherever he is available. | | Zach Eflin was removed from Saturday's game with a lower-back strain and is trending towards an IL stint. | | Griffin Canning was officially diagnosed with a ruptured Achilles, which means he'll miss the rest of this season and much of next season, too. | | The Rangers offered J.D. Martinez a non-guaranteed contract on Friday. Now 37 years old, Martinez struggled last season, and he'll have to show what he has left in the tank before Fantasy players start buying in. | | The Reds released Jeimer Candelario on Sunday. He was awful earlier this year, but I have to imagine some team will take a flier at the minimum now that he's a free agent. | | | | | | | | Big3 | | Rocket Classic | Ice Cube's 3-on-3 tournament is back this Saturday at 1 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+!
Watch Live
| | The PGA Tour heads to Motown for the Rocket Classic at the Detroit Golf Club! Watch the third and final round live this Saturday and Sunday at 3 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
|
| | | | |
|
|
