| | | | Monday, July 1, 2024 | | The biggest news from the weekend came out early on Friday: The Nationals are promoting top prospect James Wood to make his debut on Monday. So, before we get to the heart of today's newsletter, I wrote about why top prospects like Wood are still worth chasing on the waiver wire despite the struggles of some of the biggest names this season, while Scott White went into what you need to know about Wood specifically here. | | That's the biggest news, but it's far from the only news you need to know about. We've got all that and more, but first, let's get those lineups set for Week 15: | | | | Week 15 Preview | | | | The key schedule note you need to know about this week is that only six teams are playing Monday, which means only those six have seven games this week: The Astros, Blue Jays, Brewers, Mets, Nationals, and most notably, the Rockies. The Rockies have seven games at home this week, so while they don't really have many great Fantasy options, I'm looking to start Nolan Jones, Ezequiel Tovar, Charlie Blackmon, Brendan Rodgers, Ryan McMahon, and perhaps even Hunter Goodman and Elias Diaz this week. | | Week 15 waiver targets | | Here are the top players to consider adding ahead of Week 15 at each position: | | C: Hunter Goodman, Rockies (18%) 1B: Carlos Santana, Twins (51%) 2B: Jonathan India, Reds (71%)3B: Mark Vientos, Mets (57%)SS: Xander Bogaerts, Padres (69%)OF: Jarred Kelenic, Braves (70%), Heston Kjerstad, Orioles (44%), Jhonkesky Noel, Guardians (25%)SP: Reese Olson, Tigers (68%), Christian Scott, Mets (49%), Gavin Williams, Guardians (69%) RP: Devin Williams, Brewers (62%), A.J. Puk, Marlins (8%) | | For more deep-league targets, plus my thoughts on each of those players and more, head here. | | | | Week 15 sleeper hitters | | Best hitter matchups for Week 15: | 1. Rockies MIL4, KC3
2. Nationals NYM4, STL3
3. Brewers @COL4, @LAD3
4. White Sox @CLE3, @MIA3
5. Angels @OAK3, @CHC3 | | Worst hitter matchups for Week 15: | 1. Mariners BAL3, TOR3
2. Phillies @CHC3, @ATL3
3. Braves SF3, PHI3
4. Orioles @SEA3, @OAK3
5. Giants @ATL3, @CLE3 | | Top sleeper hitters for Week 15: | | J.D. Martinez, DH, Mets (77%) @WAS4, @PIT3Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Brewers (79%) @COL4, @LAD3 Jesse Winker, OF, Nationals (71%) NYM4, STL3Jonathan India, 2B, Reds (61%) @NYY3, DET3Mark Vientos, 3B, Mets (57%) @WAS4, @PIT3 | | Week 15 sleeper pitchers | | You can check out Scott's two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to "no-thanks." | | Top sleeper pitches for Week 15: | | Kyle Gibson, Cardinals at PIT, at WASReese Olson, Tigers at CIN Michael Wacha, Royals vs. TB Zack Littell, Rays at KC, at TEXBen Lively, Guardians vs. CHW | | | Weekend Standouts
| | Good pitching | | Gerrit Cole, Yankees @TOR: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – It certainly wasn't vintage Cole. I'm not sure it was even 2023 Cole – his average fastball velocity was still down about 1 mph from last year, though it was up significantly from his previous start. And he still clearly doesn't have the feel for his slider, generating just two whiffs with it on 15 pitches, along with exit velocities over 100 mph on both balls in play allowed. But we needed to see reason to be optimistic about Cole so we could at least trust him this week, and I think we saw that. You should still be skeptical that he'll be able to rediscover his ace form coming off that elbow issue this spring, but I feel better about starting him this week against the Red Sox. | | Pablo Lopez , Twins @SEA: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – Okay, so … we're done here, right? You're all going to stop panicking and talking about how he's ruining your season and is droppable and all that, yes? I get it, we all get frustrated. But Lopez's underlying metrics all nearly unanimously agreed he was pretty much the same guy as last year, and he was pretty clearly just going through a bit of a slump – a similar one to one he had last season, I'll note. That one just didn't come at the beginning of the season, so his ERA never started with a 5.00 and you probably didn't notice. | | Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks vs. OAK: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – We love to have a nice soft landing coming back from the IL. Gallen looked no worse for the wear in his return from his hamstring injury, with the only downside being that he only threw 77 pitches. The most notable thing here is that Gallens' fastball velocity sat at 95.2 on average, the highest it's ever been for a start in the majors. Gallen's velocity had actually been down a bit early in the season, so maybe the rest did him some good. I'm kind of inclined to say this might be a sell-high moment, but I'm also totally fine hanging on to Gallen and hoping he stays healthy moving forward. | | Cristopher Sanchez , Phillies vs. MIA: 9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – The regression monster came for one of Sanchez's rotation mates this weekend, but he continues to dodge it. Of course, that makes it sound like Sanchez is some obvious sell-high candidate, and I'm not sure I actually believe that – his 3.33 xERA is obviously lower than his actual 2.41 mark, but would still be an excellent number and fits in with the continued improvements he has made. Sanchez still isn't getting strikeouts like he did last season, but his control continues to improve after some early hiccups, and he's one of the premiere ground ball artists in the game right now. There's regression coming, but I'm struggling to find much negative to say about Sanchez. | | Bailey Ober , Twins @SEA: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 9 K – So, here's the question with Ober: What changed? He hasn't really changed his pitch mix up and his velocity is steady, but he's riding his best stretch of the season, posting a 3.19 ERA with 34 strikeouts in 31 innings in five June starts. Part of it might just be better execution – Ober was leaving his fastball in the middle of the zone too often early in the season and it was getting absolutely crushed, but he went from a .400-plus xwOBA on that pitch in April and May to a totally viable .357 mark in June. That'll play with how well the rest of the arsenal is working. Here's one other possible explanation, though: The schedule just got a lot easier. Since facing the Yankees on June 4, he's faced the Pirates,A's, A's, and Mariners, and gets the Tigers and White Sox in his last two starts before the All-Star break. The sell-high window is still open if you want to try to move him. | | Seth Lugo, Royals vs. CLE: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – So, here's the thing: If Lugo's recent run, where he has 26 strikeouts over his past three starts, is for real, it dramatically changes his outlook. Lugo's been one of the biggest overperformers in baseball so far based on his underlying stats – he had a 3.81 xERA and 2.29 ERA before this start, for example – mostly because he tends to run extremely pedestrian strikeout rates. If he could be even a strikeout-per-inning guy with his control and quality-of-contact skills, that would be huge. I just … don't buy it. This was an incredible performance, to be clear – the Guardians are a tough matchup, and he just dominated them. But it remains an outlier for him – Lugo had a similar stretch with consecutive double-digit strikeout rates in May and followed it up with 21 in his next 32 innings. I think he's going to remain a very useful pitcher for Fantasy, but I just don't buy him as an ace. If someone in your league does, go see if you can get someone like Luis Castillo or Gerrit Cole for him. | | Max Scherzer, Rangers @BAL: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – Like with Cole, absolutely nobody would mistake this for peak Scherzer, but one difference here is, absolutely nobody is expecting peak Scherzer at this point. He's managed to be effective through two starts despite dealing with some lingering issues with his thumb. We'd like to see Scherzer work up closer to 100 pitches, and I'd bet we'll see that soon. Scherzer came cheap enough in drafts that all he needs to be is decent to be a nice pickup, and I think he should be at least decent if he can stay healthy. | | Michael King, Padres @BOS: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – King has been pretty tremendous since the start of May, sporting a 2.83 ERA with 75 strikeouts in 63.2 innings of work. I'll admit, I pretty much gave up on him being an impact arm after April, and that looks pretty foolish these days. Kudos to you if you hung on to him because King does look like he can be a must-start pitcher moving forward. | | Taj Bradley , Rays vs. WAS: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 11 K – Bradley has all but shelved his curveball, throwing just five over his past two starts as he has leaned all the way on his four-seamer and splitter. The splitter has been an excellent swing-and-miss pitch for him, but it's also been his best pitch at limiting quality of contact, and maybe simplifying his approach to focus on those two north-south pitches has helped the fastball play up, too – though there are some warning signs there, as his four-seamer allowed a .416 expected wOBA with a middling whiff rate in June. Command remains an issue for Bradley, which makes it tough to fully buy in. But he's showing top-20 upside right now, and I'm always chasing that. | | Zach Eflin, Rays vs. WAS: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Now that's what I wanted to see. Eflin has deprioritized his curveball this season, a curious decision seeing as it was his best pitch in his breakout 2023. He led with the pitch in this one and generated five of his 11 swinging strikes, along with a bunch of weak contact. The collapse of Eflin's strikeout rate has been the primary difference between last year and this, and it seems like the drop in curveball usage from 27% to 19% was the primary reason for that. If Friday is any indication, it might be time to buy back into Eflin. | | Brandon Pfaadt, Diamondbacks vs. OAK: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – I know there are plenty of people who believe in Pfaadt but remain pretty skeptical. He's capable of starts like this one, of course; he had eight strikeouts in six, one-run innings just three starts prior to this one. Of course, he sandwiched those eight-strikeout performances around two in which he had two strikeouts to six walks combined. He took advantage of a great matchup because I think that is just what Pfaadt is: A streamer. | | Andrew Heaney, Rangers @BAL: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 10 K – I was inclined to overlook this very good outing, but when I checked the numbers, I did notice one interesting thing: Heaney's slider velocity was up 2.4 mph, while he went from generating 42 inches of vertical break to just 36 in this one. Which is to say, the slider looked more like it did in 2022, when he had his best season behind a dominant slider with the Dodgers. It's just one start, and I didn't see any quotes from Heaney after the start suggesting that was a conscious decision. But combined with the good numbers against the Orioles, it definitely makes me more interested than I otherwise would have been. | | Charlie Morton, Braves vs. PIT: 6.1 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – At this point in his career, ditto for Morton, who has alternated good and bad starts for basically the past two months. He's a fine pitcher to have around for the right matchups, but his 90% roster rate just feels like a waste – you're probably passing up on pitchers with more potential upside trying to chase these inconsistent Morton outings. | | Drew Thorpe, White Sox vs. COL: 6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – I've been pretty down on Thorpe, so kudos to him for a very useful performance here. On the other hand, if this is what the good starts look like, against maybe the best matchup in baseball (the Rockies at the end of a road trip), skepticism feels like the right call, doesn't it? | | Tobias Myers, Brewers vs. CHC: 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – That's five good starts in a row for Myers, and I just don't buy it. He has had as many strikeouts as innings pitched once in that five-start stretch and has 4.06 xERA to go with his 3.26. As a streamer, Myers has some appeal in a very good situation in Milwaukee, but we're also talking about a guy with a 5.67 ERA in Triple-a (and he wasn't much better in Double-A), so I think this is probably about as good as it's ever going to get for him. | | Bad Pitching | | Luis Castillo, Mariners vs. MIN: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – This wasn't really a bad start, but it certainly wasn't a good one, and it capped off a June that saw Castillo struggle to a 5.13 ERA. The strikeouts haven't really been there for Castillo since the start of May (54 in 63 innings of work), and his quality of contact suppression has been below average dating back to last season. His fastball has been a bit less effective and his changeup whiff rate is down to 24.8%, a career-low rate, which is concerning all around. I still have faith in Castillo, but unlike with Pablo Lopez's struggles, there are real red flags in the profile here. | | Ranger Suarez , Phillies vs. MIA: 4.2 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 0 K – Suarez was never going to sustain a sub-2.00 ERA, so in that sense, this is just a little bit of regression to the mean. Of course, there's still the question of what the "mean" is for Suarez. He's a career 3.20 ERA pitcher but had been at 3.65 or worse in 2023 and 2024. So the question here is, how much does his 2.27 ERA through the first half of this season change our perception of what that "mean" should be? Personally, I'm still expecting something like a mid-3.00s ERA pitcher moving forward, so while this isn't an ideal time to try to trade him, I still think there's probably profit to be found in shopping him. | | Yusei Kikuchi, Blue Jays vs. NYY: 5 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – It's hard to hold a poor showing against the Yankees against anyone, and it does feel like there was probably just some bad luck here – he had an 84.1 mph average exit velocity and solid swinging strike numbers, but just ran into trouble with the third time through the order. I don't want to drop Kikuchi, but he's gotta turn things around after a very rough June. | | Nick Pivetta , Red Sox vs. SD: 4 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – I'm pretty much in the same spot on Pivetta as Kikuchi, where I don't want to overreact to his struggles, though, in this instance, Pivetta's struggles extend back to May, when he came back from an elbow injury. Pivetta's velocity more or less looks fine, but his sweeper especially just hasn't been the weapon we thought it would be, with his whiff rate down from 44% to 34%. If he can rediscover that, there's still plenty of upside here, but it also feels like we've been here with Pivetta before, holding high hopes based on a half-season of success a year ago. He needs to start showing us something quickly. | | James Paxton, Dodgers @SF: 4 IP, 12 H, 9 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – I know the results have mostly been okay for Paxton, but we've seen the limitations of his approach lately, as he stumbled to a 6.46 ERA in June despite a couple of really good starts sprinkled in there. Paxton has been dancing on a knife's edge all season long, with just 53 strikeouts in 75.2 innings to go along with 38 walks, and it seems like it's caught up to him. He'll remain a useful Fantasy option with the Dodgers backing him up, but I don't see Paxton as anything more than a streamer at this point. | | Hitters | | Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees – Judge homered yet again Sunday, giving him 11 for the month of June and 31 for the season, putting him slightly ahead of his 2022 pace. He has a 1.388 OPS since the start of May, and while he'll surely slow down at some point, Judge sure looks like he's back to being arguably the best player in Fantasy, just like he was in 2022. Here's something to keep in mind about 2022: His worst month in terms of OPS was .922, while his worst month for homers was six. | | Manny Machado, 3B, Padres – It took a couple of months, but Machado finally looks like himself. He homered twice Saturday and finished June with a .333/.378/.522 line and his expected wOBA for the month ended up at .350; it was below .320 in each of the first two months of the season. Machado had offseason elbow surgery and was delayed at the start of spring training, so it makes some sense that it might have taken him a little extra time to get going. | | Nick Castellanos, OF, Phillies – The overall numbers still look pretty mediocre, but after he went 4 for 5 with three RBI Sunday, Castellanos finished the month of June with a .276/.325/.486 line. And if you go back to Castellanos' first homer on April 26, he's hitting .254 with a 31-homer, 98-RBI, 95-run pace. That's pretty much exactly what you drafted him for, isn't it? | | Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Royals – I talked about lowering Pasquantino in my rankings on Friday's episode of Fantasy Baseball Today , so you're welcome for that little weekend breakout. He homered twice, drove in five runs, and went 7 for 12 from Friday through Sunday to finish the month of June with a .276/.342/.490 line with four homers … which kinda tells you how mediocre he had been for a while before that. My point was never that Pasquantino was bad, or that he couldn't be useful for Fantasy moving forward, for what it's worth; it was just that we've talked about Pasquantino as someone with potentially elite upside, and we just haven't seen very much of that from him. It was nice to get a reminder of what he can do when he's locked in this weekend. | | News and notes | | Juan Soto was scratched from the lineup Saturday due to a right hand contusion he suffered on a slide Friday. X-rays came back negative, and he was a surprise addition to the lineup Sunday after it was apparently determined he didn't need further testing. | | As we feared, both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber were placed on the IL Friday. Harper with a left hamstring strain and Schwarber with a mild left groin strain. Kody Clemons has been filling in at first base and Johan Rojas was recalled for the outfield, but both Schwarber and Harper are expected to return around the minimum time on the IL if all goes well. | | Mike Trout said Saturday that he's basically pain-free and expects to be reinstated from the IL by the end of July. Manager Ron Washington said Trout is close to resuming baseball activities. | | Three more players were hit on the hand/wrist this weekend: | | Corey Seager was hit on Saturday. He was out of the lineup Sunday and went for further evaluation, making him a risky start this week. | | Vladimir Guerrero was hit on his right hand Sunday, and X-rays came back negative. I'd lean toward starting him at this point. | | Mitch Garver was hit Sunday. X-rays came back negative, but he's fringe-y enough that it's fine to sit him. | | Jordan Romano was shut down from throwing after experiencing discomfort in his right elbow Friday. It's the second time he's been shut down since going on the IL June 1, so it looks like Chad Green will remain the closer here for a little while longer. | | Jared Jones will re-enter the Pirates' rotation Wednesday against the Cardinals. He was skipped this past week as a way to limit his innings. | | Michael Harris has not yet been cleared to begin a running program. He's two weeks removed from suffering a Grade 2 left hamstring strain. | | Blake Snell will make his final rehab start at Triple-A on Wednesday and is expected to rejoin the Giants rotation after that. I need to see some real success at the MLB level from Snell before I can get him in my lineup, but I do want him stashed somewhere. | | Justin Verlander resumed playing catch from 60 feet Sunday and felt good. He's been out since early June with neck soreness and will likely need at least a few more weeks before he can come back from the IL. | | Thairo Estrada was placed on the IL with a left wrist sprain. | | Gavin Williams was reinstated from the IL on Sunday and will make his season debut Wednesday against the White Sox. Triston McKenzie was optioned to Triple-A. | | Pirates GM Ben Cherington said Sunday that David Bednar is making progress on his left oblique strain but that Bednar doesn't appear to have a concrete timeline. Aroldis Chapman remains a fine fill-in. | | Max Muncy took swings off a tee, fielded ground balls and did some throwing Friday. He's not expected to return from that Grade 1 right oblique strain until after the All-Star break. | | Josh Jung will visit a specialist Monday to evaluate his surgically repaired right wrist. This sounds ominous for a guy who was supposed to be back last week. | | Yu Darvish has resumed playing light catch. He's now dealing with right elbow inflammation. | | Tommy Edman recently sprained his ankle but was able to field grounders again Friday without any problems. He's working his way back from offseason wrist surgery, and manager Oliver Marmol said Edman is on track to begin a rehab assignment with Double-A or Triple-A sometime next week. | | Joey Ortiz has missed three straight due to neck soreness. | | The Mets optioned Tylor Megill to Triple-A on Sunday, which means Christian Scott is likely to be recalled and take his place. | | Jeimer Candelario returned to the lineup Sunday after missing four straight with hamstring tendinitis. | | Garrett Mitchell will be activated by the Brewers on Monday. Tyler Black was optioned back to Triple-A. In 47 career games, Mitchell is hitting .278 with five HR, nine SB, and a .795 OPS, though with a pretty ugly 38% K rate. He's worth adding in deeper categories leagues. | | Clarke Schmidt has resumed his throwing program. He's been out with a right lat strain and isn't expected back until after the All-Star break. | | | | | | | | PGA Tour | | The First Cut | The Motor City welcomes the PGA Tour for the Rocket Mortgage Classic! Watch live this Saturday and Sunday at 3 PM ET on CBS and Paramount+.
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