| | | | Wednesday, December 8, 2021 | | As with last week, you should expect a lot of changes to the rankings in Week 14. That's just the way things work right now, with so many fluid injury situations to keep track of. Tomorrow's newsletter will have a breakdown the latest on all of the injuries from the first day of practice for this week, but there just aren't too many details to get into right now. | | We did get some small bits of good news Tuesday, as Julio Jones (hamstring) was designated for return from IR, which means he could be back this week against the Jaguars, while Dalvin Cook (shoulder) was able to practice on a limited basis Tuesday, a good sign for his chances of returning in Week 15, if not by Thursday. Kyle Shanahan also told reporters he hopes Deebo Samuel (groin) will be able to play this week. That's good news all around, and we'll take that where we can get it. | | We'll have more on the injuries tomorrow, and I'm sure those updates will carry a lot more bad news than good, and will bring up new questions. If you're looking for lineup help, email me at [email protected] with the subject line "#AskFFT" to get included in a mailbag column tomorrow. | | The rest of today's newsletter is all about the rankings for Week 14. I updated my rankings for each position available Tuesday, with my thoughts on dozens of the most interesting players of the week, and I've collected thoughts on the 10 toughest players to rank for this week a little lower: | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings
| | Hopefully, that helps you get an understanding of what to expect for this week. Here's what the rest of today's newsletter has in store to help you get ready for Week 14: | | đThe toughest players to rankđđPosition Previews | | | | đThe toughest players to rankđ | | | | These are the most important weeks of the season for Fantasy, with playoff spots on the line, so of course, it's also the toughest time to rank players for Fantasy. Injuries have taken their toll, as they always do, but it feels like it's been especially tough this season. However, the bigger thing that's making it tough to rank players right now is how bad passing production around the league has been of late. | | I wrote about that in Monday's newsletter a little but quarterbacks are averaging 3.6 Fantasy points per game less over the past five weeks than they did from Weeks 1 through 5 if you just look at their passing production alone. That's a pretty significant drop, with passing yards dropping around 30 yards per game as well. That's impacted quarterback Fantasy production, obviously, where I'm not sure there are more than a half-dozen quarterbacks you can really trust these days -- I suppose it depends on the definition of "trust", and whether Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson (among others) qualify. | | It's also had a pretty big impact on the wide receiver rankings, where I think I can only go about 20 deep at the position before I run out of players I'm confident in -- and that 20 includes the likes of Marquise Brown, DK Metcalf, Mike Williams, and Terry McLaurin who haven't exactly earned our trust of late. Tight end is similarly bleak, so we're at a point where running back might be the deepest position in Fantasy. Yeah, it's rough. | | I wrote several thousand words about my quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end rankings Tuesday, with explanations and notes for dozens of players at each position, and I figured it makes sense to highlight some of the players I had the toughest time figuring out where to slot in this week and why: | | QB8. Patrick Mahomes vs. LV -- If you wanted to bench Mahomes, I can't blame you -- he has more than one touchdown in just one of his past six games while averaging 6.4 yards per attempt in that span. Ranking him this high, even against a team he had five touchdowns against just a few weeks ago, is giving him a significant benefit of the doubt. But here's the problem: Who are you going to sit him for? Taylor Heinicke? Cam Newton? Taysom Hill? Mahomes has been bad, but it's coincided with the entire position hitting a wall. QB12. Russell Wilson @HOU -- Wilson hasn't been great, but he's been good enough over the past two weeks to justify starting given the overall struggles of the QB position of late. My hope is, at some point the light will switch on and he'll look more or less by himself -- it's a bet on track record and talent, both his and surrounding him. The Week 14 matchup makes it easier to buy in, for sure. RB7. Alvin Kamara @NYJ -- I expect Kamara will be back from his knee injury this week, but I'm not entirely sure what kind of role he's returning to. His snap share fell below 70% for the first time all season in the two games he played with Mark Ingram before the injury, and now Taysom Hill's presence as the likely starter at QB brings questions about Kamara's passing game role as well as his expected share of goal-line touches. I'm still giving Kamara the benefit of the doubt to a certain extent -- especially against the Jets -- but I think his chances of being a top-five RB through the end of the season are extremely slim at this point. RB14. Aaron Jones vs. CHI -- It was surprising to see Jones return so quickly from his knee injury in Week 12, so I'm expecting him to be more involved this time around. He should be the lead option as both a runner and passer, though AJ Dillon should have plenty of opportunities as well in a game the Packers figure to win pretty easily. What isn't clear at this point is whether Jones is at risk of losing his lead role if Dillon simply outplays him. There's risk there, but not enough for me to consider sitting Jones. RB17 . James Robinson @TEN -- So, according to Urban Meyer, Robinson wasn't benched for his fumble last week; his role was limited because of his lingering heel and knee issues. Of course, Meyer also had no answer for why Robinson was in the game on the final drive if that was the case, so you can draw your own conclusions. Robinson is clearly a better player than Carlos Hyde in basically every aspect of the game, but the Jaguars seem to be looking for reasons to mix their backs up. I'm still viewing Robinson as a starter, but I'm very wary at this point. RB25. James Conner vs. LAR -- I don't know if Conner will go back to being a touchdown-or-bust Fantasy player with Chase Edmonds expected back this week, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried about it. Conner had just five targets in eight games before Edmonds went down, before getting 17 in his past four. If things return to more or less how they were before Edmonds' injury, Conner is going to need to find the end zone to be more than a fringe starter, and while you've gotta like his chances more than most with a similar role, he averaged just 49.1 yards per game in the first eight games. For context, that's less than J.D. McKissic is averaging, and only slightly more than Mike Davis. WR9. D.J. Moore vs. ATL -- Once again, I am asking for Moore to get more support. The good news is, he has 17 targets on 58 total pass attempts in Cam Newton's two starts, good for a 30% target share, right in line with his season total. Based on that role, I'm just going to continue to treat him like a must-start WR and hope the production follows; what else can I do? WR11. Ja'Marr Chase vs. SF -- How different would the discussion around Chase be right now if he hadn't bobbled a would-be long touchdown and turned it into an interception last week. Drops have been a bit of an issue for Chase of late, but the bigger issue is that he's the clear No. 2 option behind Tee Higgins , with 77 targets to 89 for Higgins in the 10 games they've played together. That, plus Chase's downfield-oriented role has led to his inconsistency of late, but we saw plainly last week there is still considerable upside here. He just has to make the plays. Bet that he will. WR19. Mike Williams vs. NYG -- With Keenan Allen in the COVID protocols, his status for Week 14 is very much up in the air. Williams has started to turn his season around a bit of late, and I would expect him to be used more like he was early in the season if Allen is out -- back when he was being used as more than just a deep threat. He has WR1 potential in this scenario. TE6. Kyle Pitts @CAR -- I think you just have to continue to have faith that Pitts' consistent target share is going to turn into big production at some point. That's frustrating, but don't be fooled into thinking any of the streaming type TE are going to be any less frustrating. He's too talented not to be better than this at some point, and you don't want it to happen with him on your bench for someone like Tyler Conklin. | | | | đWeek 14 Position Previews | | Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know about and our expert consensus top-12 rankings before you go read Heath's full breakdowns: | | QB Preview | | | | Injuries: Aaron Rodgers (toe), Joe Burrow (finger), Jalen Hurts (ankle), Taysom Hill (finger), Ben Roethlisberger (pectoral), Daniel Jones (neck), Tyrod Taylor (wrist), Justin Fields (ribs), Andy Dalton (hand) and Mike Glennon (concussion)On a bye: Jalen Hurts, Carson Wentz, Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones Number to know: 23.4 -- Taysom Hill has averaged 23.4 Fantasy points per game in his five career starts at quarterback. Matchup that matters: Cam Newton vs. ATL (31st in points allowed to QB)Top streamer: "Taysom Hill. Hill could legitimately be a top-five quarterback rest of season if his finger doesn't impact his passing too much." Top DFS play: "Hill. The fact that the major DFS sites are not six points per pass touchdown really helps out running quarterbacks like Hill. In that format he projects as my No. 3 quarterback this week." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Tom BradyJosh AllenAaron RodgersPatrick MahomesKyler MurrayDak PrescottMatthew StaffordLamar Jackson Justin HerbertTaysom HillKirk CousinsRussell Wilson | | | | RB Preview | | | | Injuries: Joe Mixon (neck), Austin Ekeler (undisclosed), D'Andre Swift (shoulder), Alvin Kamara (knee), Dalvin Cook (shoulder), Elijah Mitchell (concussion), Jeff Wilson (knee), Damien Harris (hamstring), Melvin Gordon (hip), Kareem Hunt (calf), Miles Sanders (ankle), Kenyan Drake (ankle), Michael Carter (ankle), J.D. McKissic (neck), Chase Edmonds (ankle), Derrick Henry (foot), Jordan Howard (knee), Alex Collins (abdomen), David Johnson (illness), Ronald Jones (illness), Jeremy McNichols (concussion) and Trey Sermon (ankle)On a bye: Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Brandon Bolden, Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, Jordan Howard, Kenneth Gainwell and Myles GaskinNumber to know: 17 -- A.J. Dillon has seen 17 targets over his past four games and caught all 17 of them; who gets the passing work in Green Bay will be key moving forward.Matchup that matters: Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara @NYJ (32nd in points allowed to RB)Stash: "Jordan Howard. The Eagles are hopeful Howard will be back after their Week 14 bye. Depending on Miles Sanders' status, Howard could be the Eagles' No. 1 running back." Top DFS play: "Javonte Williams . This may very well change later in the week because there's still way too much uncertainty. But if Melvin Gordon is out again this week, Williams at $6,700 is the clear top play on the slate. JaMycal Hasty could enter the conversation if the 49ers don't get healthy fast." | | Consensus Expert Top 24 | | Austin EkelerJavonte WilliamsAlexander MattisonAntonio GibsonLeonard FournetteNajee HarrisJames ConnerJosh Jacobs Cordarrelle PattersonJoe MixonNick ChubbDavid MontgomerySaquon BarkleyAaron JonesMark IngramSony MichelJamaal Williams A.J. DillonDevonta FreemanClyde Edwards-HelaireEzekiel ElliottD'Onta ForemanKareem HuntJames Robinson | | WR Preview | | | Injuries: Keenan Allen (COVID-19), Adam Thielen (ankle), Deebo Samuel (groin), Tee Higgins (ankle), A.J. Brown (chest), Julio Jones (hamstring), Chase Claypool (toe), Calvin Ridley (personal), Corey Davis (groin), Allen Robinson (hamstring), Kenny Golladay (ribs), Kadarius Toney (quad), Sterling Shepard (quad), Will Fuller (finger) and Randall Cobb (groin)On a bye: Michael Pittman, T.Y. Hilton, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker, Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor Number to know: 100.3 -- Elijah Moore has scored 100.3 PPR Fantasy points since Week 9. Only Justin Jefferson has scored more.
Matchup that matters: D.J. Moore vs. ATL (26th in points allowed to WR)Stash: "Sterling Shepard. Whenever he's been healthy, Daniel Jones has peppered Shepard with targets. Hopefully they can both get back for the Fantasy playoffs." Top DFS play: "Elijah Moore. Moore has now seen a target share over 30% in three straight games and he's producing like a true No. 1 wide receiver. He's still priced like a No. 3." | | Consensus Expert Top 24 | | Justin JeffersonDavante AdamsDiontae JohnsonCooper KuppStefon DiggsChris GodwinCeeDee LambTyreek Hill Mike EvansHunter RenfrowElijah MooreTee HigginsMarquise BrownD.J. MooreTyler LockettJa'Marr ChaseMike WilliamsTerry McLaurin DK MetcalfDeAndre HopkinsAmari CooperDarnell MooneyCordarrelle PattersonVan Jefferson | | TE Preview | | | Injuries to know: Darren Waller (knee), Logan Thomas (knee) and Ricky Seals-Jones (hip)On a bye: Dallas Goedert, Mike Gesicki, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith and Jack DoyleNumber to know: 18.6% -- Nearly a fifth of Taylor Heinicke's passes have gone to a tight end this year. Whoever starts there in Week 14 is streamable.
Matchup that matters: Dalton Schultz @WAS (16th in points allowed to TE)Streamer: "Tyler Conklin. Conklin saw nine targets mostly without Adam Thielen in Week 13. It was his fourth game this year with at least seven targets. In those four games he's averaged 12.95 PPR Fantasy points." Top DFS play: "George Kittle. The Bengals defense is beat up, and as long as Deebo Samuel remains out, I expect Kittle to have a massive target share." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Travis KelceGeorge KittleMark AndrewsRob GronkowskiT.J. HockensonDawson KnoxPat FreiermuthKyle Pitts Dalton SchultzTyler ConklinZach ErtzTyler Higbee | | | | | | | | Drop In. Ride On. | | UEFA Champions League on P+ | Tune into PBR RIDEPASS, exclusively on Pluto TV. Download the Pluto TV app to watch thrilling western sports, plus over 200 channels of movies, TV shows, news, sports and more, all 100% free.
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