Our worst fears came true this weekend, as the Diamondbacks confirmed that ace Corbin Burnes will require Tommy John surgery for the elbow injury he suffered last week. It's a big blow for the 30-year-old, though maybe this helps explain why he was so underwhelming for much of this season, with his cutter velocity down 1.2 mph and his movement profile all out of whack even when things were going well.

It's a huge blow for the Diamondbacks, and it's a pretty big one for Fantasy players, who probably snagged Burnes as their ace in most leagues. And he was joined on the IL by Zebby Matthews (shoulder) and Tony Gonsolin (elbow) this weekend, while Ryan Weathers looks like he could follow them after being evaluated for a head injury. All three of those guys have been among the most-hyped pitching adds at various points in the first couple of months of the season, with Matthews and Weathers especially emerging in recent weeks as exciting targets, so this is a tough break. 

Before we get to everything else you need to know from this weekend's action around MLB, including Week 12 lineup help, let's take a look at some of the top waiver-wire targets among starting pitchers this week: 

Here are the pitchers we're looking to replace Burnes with: 

• Ben Brown, Cubs  (38%) – I don't have a ton of confidence in Brown, but it's hard to argue with the results when things are going well for him, as they have been over the past two starts. He has 16 strikeouts to two walks over his past 13 innings of work, and it's come during a time when his fastball velocity continues to creep up. We know the curveball is an elite pitch, but the fastball doesn't miss as many bats as you might think for the velocity he generates, so the key might be the changeup, which he threw a career-high nine times and which generated more drop than ever before in his most recent start Friday against the Tigers . If that can be a legitimate third pitch for him – he changed his grip over to a kick-change, as Lance Brozdowski noted in his essential newsletter this weekend – Brown could be taking a big step forward. 
• Michael Soroka, Nationals  (19%) – Soroka also seems to be throwing a kick-change. He was throwing it harder with more drop in Friday's start, and it was a big weapon vs. lefties as he struck out seven over six shutout innings against the Rangers. Soroka has been dominant against righties but has struggled vs. lefties so far, so if that changeup helps neutralize the platoon advantage, he could be surprisingly useful – and his 2.98 expected ERA for the season backs it up. 
• Edward Cabrera, Marlins (33%) – I'm not sure why the Marlins had such an early hook with Cabrera Saturday, lifting him after a season-low 63 pitches and four innings of work. Hopefully, there's no injury here that they haven't acknowledged because Cabrera continues to look a lot sharper lately. Saturday wasn't his best start, but even with that, he has 33 strikeouts to 10 walks over his past 31 innings since the start of May, with a 2.03 ERA. Fastball command has always been a problem for Cabrera, but he seems to have found some success by throwing his sinker more and his four-seamer less, a move that figures to cost him some swing-and-miss but could lead to weaker contact and better command. He's still a high-variance pitcher, but we're seeing a bit of upside lately. 
• Nick Martinez, Reds (53%) – As we saw early in the season, Martinez doesn't have a huge margin for error if his command isn't absolutely pinpoint. But it sure has been lately, and he put together his seventh quality start in eight tries Saturday in a tough matchup against the  Diamondbacks . In that span, Martinez has struck out just 16% of opposing batters, but he has also walked just 3.7%, leading to a 2.77 ERA and 3.19 FIP over his past 48.2 innings. He went on a similar run last season, and when Martinez is locked in like this, he's an extremely useful pitcher in all formats. 
• Bryce Elder, Braves  (18%) – We can't just ignore a 12-strikeout game, so Elder gets on our radar with his performance against the Giants  Saturday. I'm just not sure I have much reason to buy into it beyond nodding at it and saying, "Huh, interesting." Elder got those 12 strikeouts on 14 swinging strikes, which is a pretty unimpressive number – his 31% Called-plus-Swinging strike rate was also more decent than outstanding. Elder's been on a nice little run since the start of May, allowing 10 runs in 30.1 innings of work, and the strikeouts have been there, as he's now up to 33 in that span. I don't have much faith in this proving sustainable, but he is throwing his slider more than ever while continuing to generate lots of groundballs and few walks, so maybe there's something here. At the very least, he should be quite useful in his next start against the  Rockies next weekend. 

Besides the pitchers, here's who else we're looking to add this week: 

• C: Kyle Teel, White Sox (29%)
• 1B: Nick Kurtz, Athletics (69%)
  
• 2B: Jeff McNeil, Mets (21%)
• 3B: Addison Barger, Blue Jays (57%)
• SS: Ryan Ritter, Rockies (7%)
• OF: Colton Cowser, Orioles (67%), Parker Meadows, Tigers (43%), Jo Adell, Angels (19%)
• RP: Robert Garcia, Rangers (26%),  Pierce Johnson, Braves (4%)

For more deep-league targets, plus my thoughts on each of those players and more, head here. 

Best hitter matchups for Week 12

1. Marlins @PIT3, @WAS3
2. Angels ATH3, @BAL3
3. Braves @MIL3, COL3
4.  Reds @CLE3, @DET3
5. Pirates MIA3, @CHC4  

Worst hitter matchups for Week 12

1. Yankees @KC3, @BOS3
2. Blue Jays @STL3, @PHI3
3. Dodgers @SD3, SF3
4.  Rockies SF3, @ATL3
5. Nationals @NYM3, MIA3  

Top sleeper hitters for Week 12

1. Joshua Lowe, OF, Rays (75%) @BOS3, @NYM3
2. Michael Busch, 1B, Cubs (78%) @PHI3, PIT4
3. Agustin Ramirez, C, Marlins (64%) @PIT3, @WAS3
4. Xavier Edwards, SS, Marlins (70%) @PIT3, @WAS3
5. Matt Shaw, 3B, Cubs (77%) @PHI3, PIT4

You can check out Scott's two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to no-thanks. 

Top sleeper pitchers for Week 12

1. Shane Smith, White Sox (61%) at HOU, at TEX
2. Eury Perez, Marlins (76%) at PIT, at WAS
3. Griffin Canning, Mets (75%) vs. WAS, vs. TB
4. Jeffrey Springs, Athletics (52%) at LAA, at KC
5. Luis Ortiz, Guardians (39%) vs. CIN, at SEA

Good pitchers

Paul Skenes, Pirates vs. PHI: 7.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – The Pirates won this game, but of course, they didn't even take the lead until Skenes left. He has a 1.18 ERA with 51 strikeouts to 12 walks over his past 48.1 innings during a seven-game quality start streak, and he has a single win to show for it. I'm not some kind of anti-win crusader or anything, but this is why it's an inherently silly, non-representative stat. 

Jacob deGrom, Rangers @WAS: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K –deGrom snapped out of a mild funk in this one, generating twice as many strikeouts as in his previous two starts combined. His ERA is down to 2.12 for the season, and while he's not the guy he used to be anymore, this new version is still one of the best pitchers in baseball for as long as he can hold up. 

George Kirby, Mariners @LAA: 7 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 14 K – Now that's more like it. Kirby had just 11 strikeouts in his first three starts back from his shoulder injury, but his stuff looked good enough that I was really worried. And I'm even less worried now. The Angels offense had actually been much better lately, so this wasn't as much of a slam dunk as you might have thought. There's always the risk of that shoulder injury coming back – or causing some other issue – but I feel very good about having Kirby on my teams after this one. 

Jack Flaherty , Tigers vs. CHC: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 9 K – Flaherty's stuff has largely looked like it did last season, so I've kept the faith throughout a somewhat rocky start to the season. But he seems to have fully turned the corner at this point, tossing four quality starts in a row with 29 strikeouts to eight walks in 24.2 innings in that span. The slider still isn't quite where it was last season and he threw just 10% of them in this one, but Flaherty's knucklecurve has been more than up to the challenge of picking up the slack, generating eight whiffs on 16 swings in this one, with an overall whiff rate nearing 50%. 

Tanner Bibee, Guardians vs. HOU: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – There's been a bit of a crisis of confidence for Bibee this season, but he's starting to turn things around. He continues to lean more heavily on his sweeper of late, and that continues to be a very good idea – he generated seven whiffs on 25 pitches with it being used as his primary pitch against a very righty-heavy lineup. The sweeper isn't always this kind of swing-and-miss pitch, so finding some consistency there could help. 

Ben Brown, Cubs @DET: 7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Brown seems to have switched the grip on his changeup, and he might be growing more confident in it. He threw it a career-high nine times in this start and was generating more drop than ever with it, as Lance Brozdowski pointed out in his essential newsletter , I don't expect that to suddenly become a weapon for Brown, but if it can keep hitters off his four-seamer, that could be huge – his four-seamer has good life but gets hit really hard, which is a problem when he throws it nearly 60% of the time. Becoming a bit less predictable could really help Brown take off. 

Michael Soroka, Nationals vs. TEX: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Soroka is also throwing a tweaked changeup, and he had both more drop and more velocity on the pitch in this one. He threw it 15 times and generated just one whiff, but was able to generate some called strikes against lefties, which is a big deal – he's been so dependent on his breaking ball, which just isn't going to be as effective as lefties, who have unsurprisingly been much better against him. If this helps neutralize that platoon split, Soroka could actually matter for 12-team leagues. I'm open to the possibility. 

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers @STL: 5 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – I'm always going to root for Kershaw, even if I'm at the point where good starts are more surprising than not. His velocity ticked up a little bit in this one, but it was the slider that carried him, generating nine of his 12 swinging strikes. It's nice to know Kershaw can still be effective, but I'm not necessarily expecting this every time out at this point. 

Bryce Elder, Braves @SF: 8 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 12 K – This was a heck of a start, obviously. And I actually think it could be sustainable, at least for exactly one more start – Elder gets the Rockies in Atlanta in his next scheduled start, and I would certainly be open to starting him in that one. But overall, I remain pretty unimpressed with Elder, and his next starts could come against the Mets and Phillies, so I certainly don't expect this to be a long-term addition if you do add him. 

Brandon Walter, Astros @CLE: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – That's now two earned runs combined across his first two career starts, with 10 strikeouts to just one walk in 11 innings of work. Walter's stuff doesn't really stand out – he sits around 88 mph with his cutter and rarely throws anything much harder than that, with neither his sweeper nor changeup looking like more than a decent swing-and-miss pitch. I suppose we can throw Walter on the streaming pile if he sticks around, but I'm not adding him expecting to be much more than that at this point even if he does start against the Twins this week (which doesn't seem guaranteed at this point). 

Bad pitching performances 

Carlos Rodon, Yankees vs. BOS: 5 IP, 3 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – As surprising as it might have sounded at the beginning of the season, Rodon has absolutely earned the benefit of the doubt for a start like this. His velocity was fine and he still generated 15 swinging strikes on 90 pitches, so I'm chalking this one up to "stuff happens."

Joe Ryan, Twins vs. TOR: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – That's two underwhelming starts in a row for Ryan, coming off a May where he had a 1.86 ERA with 33 strikeouts to just five walks. There hasn't been a notable drop in velocity – if anything, his velocity has been a tick up lately – so I'm willing to chalk it up to a little rough stretch and nothing more right now. But he needs something besides his fastball to show up next time out – he had just a 15% CSW rate in this one with his non-four-seamers. 

Zac Gallen , Diamondbacks @CIN: 6.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – There's just no sign of forward momentum here. There have been flashes, but nothing consistent. Pitching in Cincinnati is always tough, but it's not like Gallen gave up cheap homers – all three of the ones allowed in this one would have been out in at least 18 of 30 MLB parks. The curveball worked to generate whiffs, but he also gave up three batted balls all hit at least 104 mph. I still think Gallen could turn things around, but I'll admit that's mostly based on blind faith at this point. He has a 4.54 ERA over the past calendar year. If you're looking for a positive to take from this one, it was just two runs before he gave up a single and a homer with two outs in the seventh inning. 

Luis Castillo, Mariners @LAA: 5 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – The good news is, Castillo's velocity continues to trend up, as he sat 95.6 mph with his four-seamer in this one. The bad news is his fastball got hit really hard, with a 94.2 mph average exit velocity on 15 balls in play. And his changeup is basically nonexistent, as he threw it just three times in this one. I just don't have a lot of faith in Castillo getting it back and being more than just a mid-rotation guy at this point. 

Spencer Strider , Braves @SF: 6 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – Strider's fastball velocity was down to 94.8 mph, in this one, a trend that is not getting better. Maybe it will at some point, or maybe he can find a way to pitch effectively even without his best fastball. But just isn't missing enough bats with it, and his limited arsenal (just two changeups and curveballs in this one) isn't helping him make up for it. Could Strider learn to pitch backwards, throwing his four-seamer less and leaning more on the rest of the arsenal? I suppose it's possible – the slider still looks really good! – but we haven't seen that from him yet. I can't drop Strider, but the only reason I'm even considering starting him this week is because he gets the Rockies in Atlanta. If he struggles in that matchup … we might have some tough conversations next weekend. 

+Bryce Miller, Mariners @LAA: 5 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – Miller is pitching through bone spurs in his elbow and just doesn't look right. His velocity isn't down too much from last season, but he doesn't have the pinpoint command that made that pitch play up last season, and the rest of the arsenal isn't stepping up either. Miller is healthy enough to pitch, perhaps, but I haven't seen any indication this season that he's still capable of pitching like a difference-maker. I probably won't be able to bring myself to drop Miller, but I'm not sure you need  to be as stubborn (or cowardly) as me. 

Taj Bradley , Rays vs. MIA: 4 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – Someone asked me on BlueSky whether Bradley is droppable if we can't even trust him against the Marlins, but I think that's the wrong way to think about a pitcher like Bradley. I don't think Bradley's biggest hurdle is ever really his opponent – it's himself. He's capable of dominating any lineup or struggling against any lineup because he's just an inherently volatile player. I tend to think he's a bigger headache than he's worth, especially since his stuff appears to have backed up a bit this season by various models, but I understand if you can't bring yourself to part with someone who had 10 strikeouts two starts ago. 

Tomoyuki Sugano, Orioles @ATH: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – Well, he didn't get away with it this time. Sugano has been one of the biggest overperformers by various underlying ERA estimators all season long, and even in a start where he struggled, it still feels like it should have been worse than this, somehow. Maybe he has some kind of magical run-prevention skills … or maybe he's just getting lucky. I continue to think it's mostly the latter, especially since his 4.53 xERA suggests he does not, in fact, have some outlier ability to limit weak contact. 

Ryan Yarbrough, Yankees vs. BOS: 4 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – Everyone always says, "Oh, it's fine to play the hot hand until it runs out," but the problem is, you never know when it's going to run out or how ugly it's going to get when it does. From May 3 through June 1, Yarbrough had a 2.08 ERA, which was obviously a big-time outlier for his career. And if you had him in your lineup for those five starts and this one, you got a 4.20 ERA out of him for that stretch. The one bad start mostly negated the positives you got from his previous run. 

Hitter Standouts

Jeff McNeil, 2B/OF, Mets – It's easier to say this after he homered three times in two games Saturday and Sunday, but McNeil has been pretty good this season. He finished May with a .780 OPS despite just a .222 batting average, and after Sunday he's up to an .888 OPS. And it might be even better if he was hitting closer to his .270 expected batting average. McNeil has held on to his swing speed gains from late last season and is pulling the ball in the air significantly more than ever before (27.2% pulled-air rate). There could be something here. 

Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets – May was rough for Alonso, but he's been on fire yet again in June, with his two homers Sunday bringing him to six in seven games this month. He's having the best season of his career so far, and he's already halfway to last year's homer total. And the underlying numbers back it up, as his .314 expected batting average is far and away the best of his career. He probably won't quite keep this pace up, but I think Alonso is going to opt out of that contract after this season. 

Jake Meyers , OF, HOU – Meyers has had a weird season. In April he could barely hit, as he put up a .626 OPS but managed to have some Fantasy appeal thanks to seven steals. In May, he hit .327/.389/.490 for what was probably the best month of his career, but he managed just one steal on three attempts. Maybe he can put both together now? He went 4 for 4 Sunday and stole two bases, his first steals since May 19. I'm skeptical of Meyers' growth as a hitter, but I will note that his actual wOBA is right in spitting distance of his career-best .334 expected wOBA, thanks in large part to a five-point drop in his strikeout rate. Maybe there's something here, at least for five-outfielder leagues. 

Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics – That's now five straight multi-hit games for Wilson, who went 7 for 13 this weekend against the Orioles. Far from slowing down, he just keeps getting better. He has 17 hits in the month of June – in seven games. He's sporting the second-best strikeout rate among all hitters and he also has eight homers, more than I think anyone expected from him all season. Wilson probably isn't quite this good – his strong .332 expected wOBA is dwarfed by his .407 actual mark – but he's clearly a superlative hitter, like Luis Arraez with more punch. 

Bryce Harper was placed on the 10-day IL with right wrist inflammation. It doesn't sound like this is too serious, but he won't be available for the upcoming week, at least. Otto Kemp was recalled from Triple-A to take his spot on the roster. He has some speed and power and will play 3B with Alec Bohm shifting to 1B. He's worth a look in deeper leagues. 

Ryan Weathers was struck by a warmup toss from catcher Nick Fortes before Saturday's start, and he's been evaluated for a head injury. He struggled in three innings of work against the Rays before leaving, and he probably shouldn't have been out there at all and now I wonder if an IL stint is on the way. His velocity was way down, too, which is concerning. 

Julio Rodriguez got X-rays on his ankle after being hit by a line drive Saturday, but he was back in the lineup and playing center field Sunday. 

Shohei Ohtani will throw a live bullpen session Monday as he continues to very methodically work his way back from elbow surgery. 

Francisco Lindor went 3 for 5 with two steals Saturday in Colorado in his first start since breaking his pinky toe. That's a good sign!

Zebby Matthews was placed on the 15-day IL with a right shoulder strain, and he will probably be out until at least July, I would guess. Simeon Woods Richardson is likely to be recalled to replace him in the rotation, but we don't have much interest in him at this point. 

Jung Hoo Lee missed Saturday and Sunday's games while dealing with back tightness. He's a risky start this week. 

Shea Langeliers to IL with strained oblique, which is always concerning. Those usually aren't minimum-length stays. 

Shota Imanaga (hamstring) will make a rehab start Tuesday at the Arizona Complex League. He's been out since early May and will probably need several starts before he is ready to be activated. 

Tyler O'Neill (shoulder) began a minor-league rehab assignment Saturday and could be back this week. 

The Dodgers activated both Michael Kopech and Kirby Yates from the IL Saturday, and both could figure into the team's ninth-inning opportunities with Tanner Scott struggling to hold it down. 

Tony Gonsolin's UCL is intact, but unclear how long he'll be shut down. That may explain why he's been so bad lately, at least. 

Marcelo Mayer sat out all four games against LHP this week. Hard to call him a "must-roster player" with that kind of role, though I would still hope I have room on my bench for a stash with his upside. 

Kerry Carpenter left Sunday's game with a lingering hamstring injury, but he doesn't expect to miss any additional time. 

Logan Gilbert (elbow) won't be returning from the IL this week. He'll make at least one more rehab start before trying to return from the flexor strain in his right elbow, after throwing 60 pitches with diminished velocity in his previous rehab outing. 

Matt Chapman jammed his hand while diving back into first base Sunday, but X-rays came back negative for a fracture. He's a risky start this week. 

Carlos Correa returned to the Twins lineup Saturday after missing three straight games with back tightness. 

Raisel Iglesias won't be the primary closer for the Braves moving forward, though it's still not clear who will be. Pierce Johnson got a chance Saturday and blew it, and they already DFA'd Craig Kimbrel. If you're desperate for saves, I suppose you can look Johnson's way, but I'm not particularly excited about the prospect. 

Jorge Soler will undergo further testing on groin, which was first hurt Wednesday; he came back Friday but left again Saturday.

Kyle Stowers has missed four straight games with a sore hand but was able to come in late in Sunday's game, so hopefully he's back this week. However, he's in a big cold spell so even with good matchups, he's a risky start. 

Jordan Westburg (hamstring) looks like he'll be back from the IL Tuesday. 

Anthony Volpe has been receiving treatment for swelling in his left elbow but was back in the lineup Sunday after missing one game. He was hit by a pitch Friday. 

Josh Naylor (hand/shoulder) returned to the lineup Saturday. 

Gabriel Moreno missed Saturday and Sunday's games with a hand contusion, but the Diamondbacks sent third catcher Aramis Garcia back down to Triple-A Sunday. That would suggest they expect him to be good to go, but he's certainly not a must-start option in two-catcher leagues. 

Ryan Mountcastle has a Grade 2 hamstring strain that will sideline him for 8-12 weeks. This might be Coby Mayo's last real chance to earn a consistent role with the Orioles. 

Jordan Walker (wrist) has been able to hit and lift weights in recent days, but he will still require a minor-league rehab assignment before coming back. Which is probably as much about getting him some low-pressure reps as anything else at this point. 

Reese Olson (finger) threw a bullpen session Saturday without incorporating his changeup into the mix, something he'll try to do in his next session. After that, we should get an update on what the next step is, but hopefully, he won't need more than a couple of rehab starts before he is activated. 

The Blue Jays recalled Spencer Turnbull from Triple-A Buffalo with the expectation he's going to start Wednesday. He has a 7.13 ERA and 1.81 WHIP at Triple-A, so no, I'm not interested in him. 

The Angels acquired Lamonte Wade from the Giants for a player to be named later or cash considerations.