| | | | Wednesday, November 22, 2023 | | You know what usually doesn't happen? Mid-to-late-round rookie wide receivers becoming No. 1 wide receivers in Fantasy. | | Before this season, the last time we saw a wide receiver drafted in the third round or later average 15-plus PPR points per game was Marques Colston, back in 2006. Before Colston? You have to go back to Bob Hayes in 1964, three years before the first Super Bowl. From 1963 through 2022, a span of 60 seasons, it happened twice. It just doesn't happen. | | And yet, it's happening right now with two different rookie wide receivers. Puka Nacua has slowed down a bit from his torrid early-season pace, but had 18.7 PPR points in Week 11 and is still averaging 17.8 per game for the season, the best ever by a player drafted outside the first two rounds as a rookie. But Tank Dell is closing the gap fast, putting up 16.4 points per game, with three straight games of at least 18.9 points. | | Nacua is still sitting at WR9 for the season in per-game scoring, while Dell is at WR15, though I imagine most Fantasy players might prefer Dell the rest of the way. He's riding high right now, attached to a young QB CJ Stroud who looks like a perennial All-Pro, while Nacua has struggled of late, both with Cooper Kupp's return, and then QB issues with Matthew Stafford struggling with a thumb injury. | | And I'm inclined to think Dell might be a sell-high candidate right now. I haven't officially hit him with that label in the trade targets section of today's newsletter, but I strongly considered it. It's not a knock on Dell, who looks like an awesome player and is consistently earning a ton of targets despite a sky-high 14.1 average depth of target, a combination that makes his production pretty easy to buy into. I don't think we're seeing a fluke here, or anything. | | I just think he might be running hot right now, just like Nacua was earlier in the season. Wide receivers tend to be inherently volatile, and that is especially true for guys who do most of their work down the field. Dell has put together three huge games in a row, and I think there might be some recency bias here in how Dell is likely viewed by most fantasy players – where his most recent games are indicative of "growth", rather than what they might be, which is a hot streak. | | I didn't ultimately opt to officially call Dell a sell-high candidate just because I would truly need to be blown away to consider moving him right now. I would legitimately need a top-12 WR type of return for him. But I do think we're probably seeing the best stretch of Dell's season, and if he was more like a mid-range WR2 the rest of the way, like Nacua has been for the past month and a half or so, I wouldn't be surprised. That's a very good outcome, obviously, and if he had a top-five outcome the rest of the way, I wouldn't be too surprised, either. | | Call me a fence-straddler, if you must; I can take that criticism. But the point is, if you have Dell on your team, you're one of the lucky ones, and you shouldn't be actively looking to move him. | | In the rest of today's newsletter, we've got my actual buy-low and sell-high candidates for trades, plus Heath Cummings' Week 12 previews for every position. Tomorrow, we'll preview the Thanksgiving games and feature Jamey Eisenberg's Start 'Em & Sit 'Em Calls, with the rest of the Week 12 game previews coming Friday morning: | | My Week 12 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | | | 🔍Week 12 Position Previews
| | Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know before you go read Heath's full breakdowns: | | | | QB Preview | | "Usually when we talk about the quarterback position we talk about players in the top 12 as 'starts' and players outside the top 12 as 'sits'. It's a simple way to look at things if you view a 12-team league as normal, but it's not always representative of the facts on the ground. This week is a good example of why, with Trevor Lawrence and Kyler Murray projected outside of the top 12. | | I have Lawrence and Murray projected within a point of QB11 this week and less than two points away from QB9. They might be sits if you happen to have them on a team alongside one of my top-12 QBs, but I'm certainly not looking to sit them. | | Lawrence in particular is in a promising spot. The 48.5 total in the Jaguars game against the Texans is tied for the highest on the slate and Lawrence is coming off the best start of his season from a Fantasy perspective. The only red light is that Lawrence has thrown one touchdown pass and four interceptions in his last three starts against the Texans." | On a bye: No one!Injuries: Joe Burrow (wrist), Geno Smith (elbow), Derek Carr (concussion), Deshaun Watson (shoulder), Taylor Heinicke (hamstring), Mac Jones (undisclosed)Number to know: 9.7 -- Brock Purdy leads the NFL with 9.7 yards per pass attempt and a 6.5% TD rate.
Matchup that matters: Dak Prescott vs. WAS (5th vs. QB)Waiver add/streamer: Gardner Minshew, Colts: "Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-most Fantasy points to QBs this season, but even that doesn't tell the full picture. Three of the last four quarterbacks who have faced the Buccaneers have scored at least 32 Fantasy points. Minshew and the Colts offense should be sharp coming off the bye."Stash: Kenny Pickett, Steelers: "If you have QB concerns and an opening at the end of the roster, Kenny Pickett might be worth the space. He's been abysmal so far, but what if at least some of it actually was Matt Canada's fault? Pickett has Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth , and a fantastic closing schedule. Let's see how he looks in that first game without Canada." | | | | RB Preview | | "The rule we generally follow at CBS is a roster rate of 65% or lower for waiver wire guys. We don't want to spend too much time on guys who are unavailable to the vast majority of you. But the later we get in the season the less roster rate tells us. And we have some really important backs who are available in 20-to-35% of leagues. Maybe I can help you with whether or not to start them if they're already rostered. If they aren't, go get them | | Zach Charbonnet is the most interesting. The rookie was still available in 30% of CBS Fantasy leagues before Tuesday's waiver run, and despite a terrible matchup against the 49ers, he projects as a top-15 back on Thanksgiving against the 49ers . Charbonnet saw 22 touches and totaled 15.9 PPR Fantasy points in Week 11 despite not scoring a TD. I am adding Charbonnet anywhere he's available and starting him in most instances. | | A.J. Dillon is available in 24% of league and likely starting against the Lions this week due to Aaron Jones ' injury. I am less enthused about Dillon, though I'd still call him a must-roster and borderline RB2 in another tough matchup. Dillon has at least 15 touches in each of his last two games, and last week was his third game with at least three targets. I wouldn't expect good efficiency, but 12 PPR Fantasy points certainly seems reasonable. " | On a bye: No one!Injuries: Aaron Jones (knee), A.J. Dillon (groin), Kenneth Walker III (oblique), De'Von Achane (knee), Rhamondre Stevenson (back), Kyren Williams (ankle), Dameon Pierce (ankle), D'Onta Foreman (ankle), Antonio Gibson (toe), Rico Dowdle (ankle), Emari Demercado (toe) and Kendre Miller (ankle)Number to know: 60.9 -- Per fantasypoints.com, Rachaad White's 60.9 expected Fantasy points over the last three weeks is tied with Austin Ekeler for the highest amongst running backs since Week 9. His role is fantastic.
Matchup that matters: Isiah Pacheco @LB (31st vs. RB)Waiver add: Ezekiel Elliott, Patriots: "If you need a Week 12 flex, you should be looking to the wide receiver waiver wire. If you need an RB2, Elliott is the best option available in more than a third of leagues. Elliott had 88 total yards and 10.8 PPR Fantasy points in Week 10 and should have fresh legs coming off a bye. The Patriots should be able to win this game on the ground against Tommy DeVito and the Giants. The last time the Patriots held an offense below 20 points was Week 3, when Elliott ran the ball 16 times for 80 yards. That's the kind of game script you're hoping for."Stash: Elijah Mitchell, 49ers: "Mitchell is fully healthy and back in his RB2 position in San Francisco. If something happens to McCaffrey during the Fantasy playoffs, Mitchell will be a league winner. He's exactly the type of player first and second place teams should be stashing." | | | | WR Preview | | "There's been plenty of talk about the massive number of quarterback injuries and the impact they've had on the NFL this season. The impact has been felt particularly hard at wide receiver. | | Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, D.J. Moore, Jordan Addison, and Amari Cooper have all seen their production impacted by quarterback injuries. Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins played the first month with an injured Joe Burrow and will play the last six weeks with his backup, Jake Browning. If Justin Jefferson is able to return, he'll have a backup as well. | | While we've adjusted to most of these situations, the Bengals situation is still fresh. Chase is still ranked as a must-start, but he's outside of my top five this week and I wouldn't be all that surprised if he falls outside the top 10 against a more difficult matchup later in the year. Higgins isn't expected to play this week, but when he does return he'll be much lower than that. He might even be dropped in more shallow leagues. Tyler Boyd is already being dropped, probably for good reason." | On a bye: No one!Injuries: Justin Jefferson (hamstring), Cooper Kupp (ankle), Puka Nacua (shoulder), CeeDee Lamb (ankle), Tyler Lockett (hamstring), Tee Higgins (hamstring), Christian Watson (shoulder), Noah Brown (knee), Michael Thomas (knee), Josh Palmer (knee), Odell Beckham Jr. (shoulder), Michael Wilson (shoulder), Treylon Burks (concussion), Jalen Guyton (groin) and Darius Slayton (arm) Number to know: 52.4% -- Courtland Sutton's touchdowns seem unsustainable, but he is the only WR in the NFL accounting for more than half of his team's end zone targets.
Matchup that matters: Jaylen Waddle @NYJ (30th vs. WR)Waiver add: Demario Douglas, Patriots: "Douglas has established himself as the No. 1 wide receiver on the Patriots with 23 targets in his last three games. I expect the rookie to continue to build on that as a WR3 who could give you WR2 numbers if he ever gets into the end zone." Stash: Khalil Shakir, Bills: "You can't start Shakir this week based on one monster play, but you can add him and hope that the big play will convince the coaching staff to increase his role in the passing game." | | TE Preview | | "While we have seen a lot of pass catchers negatively impacted by playing with backup QBs this season, David Njoku may be the rare example of someone who is better in Fantasy because the starter is out. | | Njoku has played with three quarterbacks this season. Deshaun Watson targeted Njoku on just 15.2% of his passes and Njoku averaged 6.8 yards per target and 1.7 Fantasy points per target. P.J. Walker targeted Njoku on 20.4% of his passes and Njoku averaged 7.3 YPT and 1.58 FPPT. Enter Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who has taken things to a new level. | | Njoku has seen 28.8% of Thompson Robinson's passes come his way. While his efficiency on those targets has cratered to just 4.8 YPT and 1.09 FPPT the Fantasy production is largely a product of Njoku having one touchdown with each of the other QBs and zero with DTR. The bottom line is that both backup QBs are targting Njoku at a higher rate, making him a PPR top-12 option on a weekly basis, even if it is only because of volume. " | On a bye: No one!Injuries: Mark Andrews (ankle), Dallas Goedert (forearm), Luke Musgrave (abdomen), Darren Waller (hamstring), Gerald Everett (back), Zach Ertz (quadriceps), Dawson Knox (wrist) and Greg Dulcich (hamstring). Number to know: 1.4 -- Isaiah Likely has scored 1.4 PPR Fantasy points in the two games that Mark Andrews has either missed or left early this season.
Matchup that matters: Evan Engram vs. HOU (24th vs. TE)Streamer: Isaiah Likely, Ravens: "Likely has been absolutely irrelevant in a small sample size without Andrews this season. And last year was a completely different system without Zay Flowers or Odell Beckham. Still, Likely had four games with double-digit Fantasy points last year including a monster Week 18 performance where he caught eight passes for 103 yards. The cupboards are bare on the tight end waiver wire, might as well take a shot at that type of upside against one of the worst defenses in the league. | | 📈Week 12 Trade Targets📉 | | | | As always, before you make any trades, make sure you consult Dave Richard's trade values chart. Here are some buys and sells to help get the conversation started: | | Three to buy low | | Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs | | This is a tough one, because, as you saw Monday night, Mahomes is clearly playing a lot better than his numbers. And his numbers are still pretty dang good – he's QB6 in points per game right now, and finished with 20.9 points Monday despite numerous key drops, including on what would have been a long, game-winning touchdown. Mahomes remains the best passer in the league, and he's running more effectively than ever, adding 2-4 points per game with his legs consistently, but he's been losing even more on drops – he's had 19 dropped passes this season, the third-most in the NFL, and he's lost 190 air yards on those passes, the most in the NFL (not counting whatever YAC might have come on those passes, let alone touchdowns). | | There is still absolutely elite upside here if he can get even a little bit of help from his receivers. The problem is, well, he's stuck with this receiving corps, so we shouldn't assume it'll just get better overnight. Still, with even just normal bad luck on drops, Mahomes should be a better Fantasy option than he has been, and with so many high-profile drops on Monday night, I'm going to bet there's more angst around Mahomes than normal right now. This could be your chance to take advantage. | | James Conner, RB, Cardinals | | Conner's workload has been solid, but unspectacular since his return from IR, with 30 carries and three targets over the past two games. But he's continued to run the ball well and is playing over 60% of the snaps in each game, with the biggest issue so far a lack of scoring opportunities. The Cardinals have never been shy about using Conner near the goal line, and with Kyler Murray playing well, those opportunities should be there moving forward. I'd like to see Conner used more in the passing game, but utilizing him in this fashion doesn't seem to be an integral part of this version of the offense. He has 13 targets in seven games this season, and just eight since Week 1 – but I still think better days are ahead, and Conner remains a solid RB2 for me. | | Chris Olave, WR, Saints | | Here's the tough thing about Olave: Since the start of the 2022 season, only Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams have more targets on passes of at least 20 air yards than Olave's 54. Additionally, only one player has a catch rate on those targets lower than Olave's 20.4% mark. The role is there for Olave to be an absolute superstar, but are his struggles catching the deep ball a result of a limitation in Olave's game, the poor QB play he has been saddled with, or some combination of those two factors and some bad luck? | | I'm enough of a fan of Olave's skill set to bet that he can get this figured out, and I'm hopeful that Jameis Winston starting in Week 12 (an if with Derek Carr still in the concussion protocol) could help him get going. Remember, Olave had just one catch midway through the third quarter with Carr in Week 10, and then had five for 79 yards and a touchdown the rest of the way with Winston. The Saints aren't just going to bench Carr, I would guess, but Olave is still a solid bet to turn more of his potential into production in the second half of the season. | | One to buy high | | Justin Fields, QB, Bears | | Justin Fields torched the Lions on the ground last season, and the Bears smartly recognized that would need to be a key last week and had him run 14 designed QB runs, the highest mark for a game in his career. We probably won't see comparable numbers from him moving forward, but I do think it's a good sign that they recognized a clear game plan strength and leaned into it, something the Bears haven't often done with Fields enough. He's made the leap as a passer we hoped for when they Bears added DJ Moore this offseason, and I think Week 11 was a sign that he's still very much capable of going on a dominant run as a runner. Fields has a chance to be the QB1 moving forward, and he's worth chasing if you can stomach the Week 14 bye. The playoff schedule is pretty favorable once you get past Week 15 against the Browns (and I'll still rank him as a QB1 for that one, too). | | Three to sell high | | Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seahawks | | Charbonnet is finally going to get his shot to start, seemingly, with Kenneth Walker dealing with an oblique injury, and the timing really could not be worse. Charbonnet's first start will come against the 49ers if Walker isn't able to return in time for Thursday, and then if Walker has to miss time beyond that, the schedule features the Cowboys and the road in Week 13, the 49ers on the road in Week 14, and then the Eagles in Week 15. If Walker is out, I'm going to rank Charbonnet as a top-24 RB, but only just barely, and there's a chance he ends up starting just the one game and providing very little in a tough matchup. I'm trying to trade Charbonnet to any RB-needy teams to see if I can get someone like Conner or Raheem Mostert who have been a little disappointing of late. You could even try for Derrick Henry, whose situation is really bad, but who does have a couple of good matchups coming up he can take advantage of. | | Calvin Ridley, WR, Jaguars | | The Jaguars got a bit more creative with how they used Calvin Ridley in Week 11, and I'd love to bet that it's going to hold true moving forward. Ridley, who has lined up almost exclusively on the outside of the formation for the Jaguars prior to Week 11, was moved around the formation Sunday, with Underdog Fantasy's Josh Norris noting his very different usage in a Twitter thread Sunday. Maybe the Jaguars were willing to shift Ridley around more with Zay Jones, their other primary boundary receiver, back from injury, but Jones wasn't on the field for all of Ridley's targets, so I'm not sure that necessarily explains it. | | It might represent a change in the Jaguars philosophy in a season that has been defined by how disappointing the passing game has been as much as anything else. Or, maybe it was just a one-time thing based on something they saw in the matchup. I'd love for Ridley to go on a run, but given how hit or miss he's been this season, I'm operating under the assumption that it's a fluke until I see more evidence. That means I am trying to move Ridley coming off the best game of the season. | | Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos | | There are a few guys I've just banged my head against the wall with all season, and Sutton might be the biggest. He's now scored a touchdown in five straight games and eight of 10 overall, despite averaging 49.9 yards per game, the second lowest mark of his career. Sutton has just dominated in the red zone this season, while otherwise being about as mediocre as always. And, while Sutton has always profiled as a red zone threat, his career touchdown rate coming into the season was just 3.3%; it sits at 12.9% this season. I'll always defer to the larger sample size when projecting, and Sutton's 65-game sample outweighs the more recent 10-game one. Without the touchdowns, he's barely Fantasy relevant, and I just can't expect this kind of pace to sustain moving forward. | | One to sell low | | Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders | | In two wins against totally hapless offenses, Jacobs got huge volume in the running game in Weeks 9 and 10, which papered over a troubling trend that really became hard to ignore with the Raiders chasing points in Week 11: His passing game role has evaporated. Jacobs' route participation rate against Miami was down to 53%, and he has just three targets in three games since Josh McDaniels' firing. The McDaniels offense has always heavily featured running backs in the passing game, especially in the early downs, which benefited Jacobs, who hasn't really played many third downs over the past few seasons. | | However, with McDaniels out of the picture, that approach has changed, and it's left Jacobs as an early-down runner who needs volume and touchdown chances to be Fantasy relevant. Under McDaniels, Jacobs was a top-five RB even in a bad offense; without McDaniels, he looks more like a touchdown-dependent RB2. I'm trying to move him before the market catches up. | | | | | | | | NFL Slimetime | | NFL on CBS | Watch NFL Slimetime, co-hosted by Nate Burleson and Young Dylan, on Wednesdays at 7:30/6:30c on Nickelodeon and streaming the next day on Paramount+!
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