| | | | Wednesday, November 15, 2023 | | In yesterday's newsletter, I said there were a number of injuries we needed updates on before waivers ran, and unfortunately, we really didn't get updates on any of the ones we were waiting on. But we did get one significant injury update we weren't expecting Wednesday morning. | | Deshaun Watson's season is officially coming to an end, the Browns announced, after he suffered yet another shoulder injury in the first half of last week's game. Watson will undergo season-ending surgery to repair a fracture in his shoulder and will be placed on injured reserve. Watson also suffered a high-ankle sprain during the game, so he likely would have missed time even without the shoulder injury. | | This is an unexpected blow for the Browns offense, and one that will leave either P.J. Walker or Dorian Thompson-Robinson to start the rest of the way. Watson hasn't been perfect by any means this season, but what we've seen from the Walker-DTR combo has been much worse -- they've combined to complete 50.4% of their passes for 5.54 yards per attempt, with one touchdown on 135 attempts. In three starts between them, the Browns are averaging just 14.0 points per game. | | It's an immediate downgrade for the entire offense, making Amari Cooper more of a boom-or-bust WR3 and David Njoku more like a TE2, while limiting scoring opportunities for the Browns' running backs. Jerome Ford is an RB3 moving forward, while Kareem Hunt is more like an RB4, and you're probably not in a great spot if you need to trust either moving forward. | | It looks like we're going to be dealing with at least seven backups leading the 28 NFL offenses in action in Week 11, as backup QBs have been playing a much bigger role than we ever would've hoped for this season. It's unfortunate, but it's the reality of the situation, and we've still gotta try to figure out how to win our Fantasy leagues. | | To help, we've got Heath Cummings' Week 11 previews for every position, plus Dave Richard's trade values chart and some of my favorite players to target, plus a few to trade away this week. Let's get to it: | | My Week 11 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | | | đWeek 11 Position Previews
| | Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know before you go read Heath's full breakdowns: | | | | QB Preview | | "Last week we were missing Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, and Matthew Stafford . The quarterback position felt a little bit shallow. This week we're without Mac Jones, Derek Carr, Gardner Minshew , and whoever Arthur Smith plans on starting. I wouldn't necessarily say we're missing them. | | Now, a week after scrambling to find a top-10 QB I have 16 different quarterbacks projected for at least 20 Fantasy points. That means you really shouldn't need a streamer. I still have one listed for you below in case you do, but you really shouldn't. | | One guy that isn't projected for 20, who you might want to stream over, is Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence has only topped 20 Fantasy points twice all season and I don't currently expect him to make it a third against the Titans . The problem for Lawrence, as it has been for most of his career, is touchdowns. His owns a 3% touchdown rate this season and a 3.1% TD rate for his career. That means he's extremely unlikely to throw more than one TD, something he's only done twice this season and 11 times in his career. " | On a bye: Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke, Gardner Minshew, Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe, Derek Carr and Jameis WinstonInjuries: Jalen Hurts (knee), Matthew Stafford (thumb), Justin Fields (thumb), Derek Carr (shoulder), Baker Mayfield (thumb), Deshaun Watson (ankle/shoulder), Taylor Heinicke (hamstring), Mac Jones (undisclosed), Ryan Tannehill (ankle) and Jaren Hall (concussion) Number to know: 1,486 -- Trevor Lawrence's 1,486 attempts are the fourth most for an active QB with a TD rate below 3.4% trailing Daniel Jones, Jacoby Brissett, and Blaine Gabbert.
Matchup that matters: Joe Burrow @BAL (26th vs. QB)Waiver add/streamer: Jordan Love, Packers: "Love is the only QB in my top 20 this week who isn't rostered in at least 65% of leagues. I would start him over Trevor Lawrence, Geno Smith, and Deshaun Watson. Tyson Bagent, Zach Wilson, and Aidan O'Connell are the only QBs who have failed to score 22 Fantasy points against the Chargers this season."Stash: Matthew Stafford, Rams: "I don't know exactly what to expect from Stafford coming out of the bye. But he has Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, so I would at least like to have him on my bench in case this pass game takes off. The Rams have the Cardinals in Week 12, so Stafford could be very interesting if he's healthy." | | | | RB Preview | | "When Fantasy managers were drafting Tony Pollard in Round 1 or Round 2 they never thought they'd be seriously contemplating benching their RB1 by Week 11. But this is not a case of managers being too fickle. Pollard is RB26 on the season and hasn't topped 70 yards from scrimmage since Week 6. It is completely understandable to think about benching him, but I'm waiting one more week. | | In Week 11 Pollard gets the Carolina Panthers, who have allowed the second-most Fantasy points per game to running backs this season. Pollard did just face the Giants, so a matchup won't necessarily fix everything, but this matchup is too good to sit a running back who is still averaging 18 touches per game. | | Where things get really interesting is if Pollard is bad again this week. He'll have a short week to get ready for the Washington Commanders on Thanksgiving. I'll probably rank him as a top-24 back in that game, but not as a must-start. In the next two weeks, he faces the Seahawks and Eagles, we could be in full-on bench mode by then." | On a bye: Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, Jonathan Taylor, Zack Moss, Rhamondre Stevenson, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams Injuries: Raheem Mostert (undisclosed), De'Von Achane (knee), Alexander Mattison (concussion), Kyren Williams (ankle), Khalil Herbert (ankle), Dameon Pierce (ankle), Emari Demercado (toe), Kendre Miller (ankle), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness and Damien Harris (neck)Number to know: 13 -- Tony Pollard's 13 goalline rushes rank second only to Ken Walker. He's getting the opportunities, he just can't punch it in.
Matchup that matters: Joe Mixon @BAL (32nd vs. RB) Waiver add: Devin Singletary, Texans: "Singletary busted out in a big way in Week 10 with 161 total yards and 23.1 PPR Fantasy points against the Cincinnati Bengals. In Week 11, he gets an even better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. If Dameon Pierce is out, Singletary is a top-24 running back this week. If Pierce is back we would still expect Singletary to lead the backfield and be a solid flex."Stash: Rico Dowdle, Cowboys: "Dowdle is mostly just playing in blowouts right now, but he's been more efficient than Tony Pollard this year and could see an uptick in his touches if Pollard struggles again in Week 11. At the very least, Dowdle should get more looks inside the five yard line, where Pollard has struggled the most." | | | | WR Preview | | "Despite the fact that we're over halfway through the season, I am still not sure we have a good grip on what the Rams passing game is going to look like with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp , and Puka Nacua all healthy. Hopefully, we'll get more clarification in Week 11 when they face off against the Seattle Seahawks. | | The first time we saw all three on the field together was in Week 5 against the Eagles. Stafford threw 37 passes with 12 of them going to Kupp and 11 to Nacua. Kupp had more targets, catches, and yards, but Nacua scored a TD and more Fantasy points. The following week the Rams beat the Cardinals easily and Stafford only threw 24 passes. Nine went to Kupp, seven to Nacua, but Kupp thoroughly dominated with 27 fantasy points while Nacua struggled to six. One week later, in another low-volume game, Nacua dominated volume and production while Kupp scored 4.9 PPR Fantasy points. Finally came a blowout loss to the Cowboys when both were miserable." | On a bye: Drake London, Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Demario Douglas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed Injuries: Justin Jefferson (hamstring), Jaylen Waddle (knee), Keenan Allen (shoulder), Tee Higgins (hamstring), Nico Collins (calf), Michael Thomas (knee), Josh Palmer (knee), K.J. Osborn (concussion), Zay Jones (knee), D.J. Chark (elbow), Treylon Burks (concussion), Jalin Hyatt (concussion), Donovan Peoples-Jones (ribs) and DeVante Parker (concussion)Number to know: 63.8 -- Tank Dell's 63.8 yards per game is the third-best mark ever for a Round 3 rookie behind only Keenan Allen and Terry McLaurin. Cooper Kupp was fourth at 57.9.
Matchup that matters: Chris Godwin @SF (25th vs. WR)Waiver add: Noah Brown, Texans: "Brown has 330 yards receiving over the last two weeks and faces a bad Cardinals secondary in Week 11. If Nico Collins remains out then Brown is a must-start in a three receiver league and a borderline start in leagues that start two. If Collins returns we'll view Brown as more of a boom-or-bust WR3." Stash: Demario Douglas, Patriots: "Douglas is actually my favorite waiver wire wide receiver rest of season, but he's on bye in Week 11 so you'll have to wait a week to use him. Since Kendrick Bourne went down, Douglas leads the Patriots with a 23.8% target share and has averaged 12.5 PPR FPPG in those two games. I like him as a solid WR3 rest of season. He'll be slightly better in full PPR." | | TE Preview | | "As Travis Kelce returns from his bye week, it is worth considering the possibility that we will have a race for the TE1 this season. That's probably not surprising overall because Kelce missed Week 1 and it's always uncertain how much the Chiefs will play in Week 18. But even on a per-game basis, I believe the question is unsettled. | | Part of the reason is that Kelce has come back to earth just a little. His 17.6 PPR FPPG is about a point below last year's pace, and almost exactly what Mark Andrews averaged in 2021 when he finished as TE1. More alarming is that Kelce has been below 13 Fantasy points in five of eight games. His 35.9 point outburst against the Chargers is doing a lot of work. | | But it's not just about Kelce looking (somewhat) human. T.J. Hockenson is just a point and a half behind Kelce, and he has been force fed targets since Joshua Dobbs took over. And over the last month we have seen Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, and Cole Kmet break out, all averaging more than 16.5 PPR FPPG since Week 8. McBride and Kincaid specifically have the right combination of talent and situational opportunity to win Fantasy leagues in the second half of the season." | On a bye: Kyle Pitts, Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Taysom Hill and Juwan JohnsonInjuries: Dallas Goedert (forearm), Darren Waller (hamstring), Gerald Everett (back), Pat Freiermuth (hamstring), Zach Ertz (quadriceps), Dawson Knox (wrist) and Greg Dulcich (hamstring). Number to know: 9.6 -- Kyle Pitts has not scored more than 9.6 Fantasy points since Week 6. If you need to drop him on his bye, that's fine.
Matchup that matters: Evan Engram vs. TEN (30th vs. TE)Streamer: Logan Thomas, Commanders: "Thomas is not exciting, but he is the only tight end in my top 12 who is available in even a third of leagues. He only has one game below nine Fantasy points in the last month." | | đWeek 11 Trade Targetsđ | | | | As always, before you make any trades, make sure you consult Dave Richard's trade values chart. Here are some buys and sells to help get the conversation started: | | Three to buy low | | Josh Allen, QB, Bills | | I'm not sure how real the buy-low opportunity here is for Allen, who is still a top-three QB regardless of scoring format for the season. But, based on what I'm seeing on Twitter, there are an awful lot of people who are awfully down on Allen right now as a result of the Bills' disappointing record, and I'll take any reduction in price I can get. He's still arguably the best QB in Fantasy, and I just don't think his struggles with turnovers are going to remain quite as much of an issue moving forward. He's around middle of the pack in turnover-worthy plays despite leading the NFL in interceptions, so there's definitely some bad luck here. Coming off his worst game since Week 1, if there's any kind of discount on Allen, I'm buying. | | Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams | | With news that Matthew Stafford is expected to play in Week 11 coming out of the bye, this may be your last chance to buy low on Kupp and Puka Nacua. Kupp has had three straight bad games since combining for 266 yards on 15 catches in his first two games back from IR, and two of them have been with Stafford either leaving early or out entirely. There's still some risk of Stafford's thumb injury getting worse, but the Rams have a better insurance policy now with Carson Wentz signing before the bye. I still think Kupp has top-five potential with a healthy Stafford, and I'm trying to buy him everywhere I don't already have him rostered (which, to be fair, is like half of my leagues). | | Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys | | Still here, still making the case for Pollard as a buy-low candidate in Fantasy, though I'll grant the case is becoming tougher to make. According to Hayden Winks at Underdog Fantasy, Pollard is just RB42 in 0.5-PPR scoring over the past four weeks , and is RB25 in expected points, so there's clearly still room for improvement here. Notably, however, the role doesn't look quite as valuable as it did earlier in the season, most notably because his role in the passing game has disappeared â Pollard wasn't targeted in Week 10 and has just six over the past three games. However, he's still arguably the biggest TD underperformer in the league, with two scores compared to nearly eight expected TDs . If nothing else changes, He's still a middling rusher with a limited passing game role â he should be a viable RB2 for touchdowns alone moving forward. It's harder to see the true RB1 upside here, but I maintain that better days are coming for Pollard. As I continue to bang my head against the wall. | | One to buy high | | Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions | | I don't think you can count on Gibbs for multiple short-yardage touchdowns every week, but what Week 10 showed us is that the Lions don't just view David Montgomery as the only option near the goal line now. Him and Gibbs largely split drives last week, and that meant Gibbs got to finish the drives where he did the heavy lifting, rather than ceding to Montgomery as he did earlier in the year. Gibbs is an explosive playmaker in both facets of the game, and now that he's not guaranteed to come out near the goal-line, there's touchdown equity in this very good offense, too. We might have seen the best three-game stretch of his season just end (two of them without Montgomery), but Gibbs looks like a top-10 RB the rest of the way now. | | Three to sell high | | C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans | | I don't want to be the wet blanket here, because Stroud has been one of the best stories in the league. But he probably can't sustain an 8.3 yards per attempt moving forward on 40-ish attempts per game, despite how well he's playing. And Stroud doesn't contribute much with his legs (just one game with 20 rushing yards), so the passing production needs to remain extremely good for him to remain a must-start Fantasy option. It's not a bad idea to bet on elite young talents, and Stroud certainly is one â and he's surrounded by a very solid young pass-catching group as well, though one that also might be playing above their heads a bit. But what it comes down to is, for Stroud to really be a top-10 QB the rest of the way, he probably needs to be, like, a top-five passer in the NFL, and I'm just not sure it's fair to ask that of him. There will be some slumps along the way, and I'd try to sell him on the high. | | Brian Robinson, RB, Commanders | | This one feels so obvious that the only question is if anyone's buying. The Commanders have evolved into arguably the most pass-heavy team in the NFL, and the only thing that has saved him of late has been a couple of short touchdowns and then some flukey receiving game work in Week 10. Robinson was the beneficiary of Sam Howell 's creativity on at least two long receptions Sunday, including his 51-yard touchdown, and if it wasn't for that, we'd probably be viewing Robinson as just an RB3 moving forward. The one caveat here is that the Commanders do have a matchup against the perpetually overmatched Giants in Week 11, so he could see a big workload and more scoring opportunities that could inflate his value even more. Just ahead of a dreadful closing stretch that includes the Cowboys and Dolphins before a Week 14 bye, followed by the Jets and 49ers in Weeks 16 and 17. Things could get really ugly for Robinson, and if I'm in good position for the playoffs, I'd be actively looking to move him. | | Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos | | Sutton is a good receiver in a bad situation right now, as the Broncos have become one of the least pass-heavy teams in the the league of late â they haven't thrown more than 31 passes in a game since Week 3. Russell Wilson is playing better this season by playing a lot more conservatively, with his intended air yards dropping to 6.8 yards past the line of scrimmage â it was 8.8 last season. Week 10 was the first time since since Week 3 that Sutton has had more than six targets in a game, and he's been buoyed by unsustainable touchdown luck, catching a score on 15% of his targets over the past six games. Without that, he's giving us almost nothing. He is a touchdown-or-bust WR3 who is running hot. | | One to sell low | | Kenneth Walker, RB, Seahawks | | Walker has now played less than 50% of the snaps in three straight games, after topping 60% in five of the first six. Zach Charbonnet is getting a lot of valuable passing downs opportunities, and Walker hasn't' been targeted more than twice in any of the past three games, after being targeted at least three times in four of the first six. He's struggled to break the big plays in the running game of late, and Charbonnet's role doesn't look like it's going to get any smaller moving forward. Walker is a solid RB2, but unless Charbonnet gets hurt or Walker gets hot really quickly â something he's perfectly capable of â it feels like you're just praying for a touchdown for Walker to be more than a fringe option every week. | | | | | | | | NFL Slimetime | | Fantasy Football Today Dynasty | Watch NFL Slimetime, co-hosted by Nate Burleson and Young Dylan, on Wednesdays at 7:30/6:30c on Nickelodeon and streaming the next day on Paramount+!
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