| | | | Wednesday, September 8, 2021 | | For those of you who are new to this, Tuesday is usually the slow day on the NFL in-season calendar for news, with official practice reports coming in from all 32 teams for the first time on Wednesday. There was some news you need to know about yesterday, however, so before we get into the heart of today's newsletter, here are some quick thoughts on the three biggest news items: | | Chris Godwin was added to the injury report Tuesday: Godwin was listed as limited Tuesday due to a quad injury, the first we've heard of him dealing with the injury. Mid-week additions to the injury report are usually not great news, so this is definitely one to keep an eye on when the Bucs release their full injury report for Week 1 Wednesday. The Ravens signed Le'Veon Bell to the practice squad -- The expectation is they'll have Bell active when he's fully up to speed, though it's not clear if that'll happen in time for Week 1. I'm skeptical Bell will have much of a role, but his pass-catching skills could afford him that opportunity, and if he does get carries in this offense, he'll probably be pretty efficient, just like everyone else. Which is to say, you shouldn't just ignore this one. The Saints released Latavius Murray -- I'm mostly just surprised this didn't happen on cutdown day last week. Murray would be a legitimate threat to take work in any backfield he might end up joining given his experience as a three-down back, so we'll keep an eye on where he might end up. Baltimore would have been my prediction before the Bell signing, and it still may be the likeliest destination. | | Today, we're previewing each position for the week. We're looking at how many rookies you can trust without seeing them play, who needs to get off to a fast start, and which so-called starters may not be worth your trust. Thursday, we'll have Jamey's Start 'Em & Sit 'Em calls and Dave's game previews to help you lock in those lineups, too. | | Of course, for those of you who still have your drafts tonight, here's what you need to dominate: | | Draft Day Cheat SheetJamey Eisenberg's: Sleepers | Breakouts | BustsDave Richard's: Sleepers | Breakouts | BustsHeath Cummings': Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts | Deep sleepers for all 32 teamsChris Towers: Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts QB TiersRB TiersWR Tiers TE Tiers My top-200 overall and position-by-position rankings | | And here's what the rest of today's newsletter has in store to help you get ready for Week 1: | 🔍Week 1 Position Previews
❤️My Guys📫Trade mailbag | | | 🔍Week 1 Position Previews
| | Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know about and our expert consensus top-12 rankings before you go read Heath's full breakdowns: | | | | QB Preview | | Last season, QB was a position defined by the difference between the haves and the have-nots, more than any other year I can remember. The top 11 in per-game scoring averaged 25.2 or better in six-point-per-pass TD leagues; No. 12 was at 22.9. Kirk Cousins passed for 4,265 yards and 35 touchdowns at No. 12. Was that kind of gap sustainable? The answer to that question will define the position in 2021. | | Number to know: 329.6 -- Dak Prescott's passing yards per game in 20 games with Kellen Moore. He needs to average just over 322 per game to break Peyton Manning's single-season record.Matchup that matters: Prescott vs. TB (17th vs. QB in 2020)Waiver add/streamer: "I don't expect this to be a game where Washington can just run the ball and play defense, and while the Chargers defense should be improved, they aren't a defense I'm avoiding yet. Ryan Fitzpatrick projects as my No. 17 quarterback this week, ahead of Ben Roethlisberger, Jameis Winston, and Baker Mayfield. But it's Week 1, so don't get too crazy with your streaming."Stash: "I'm excited about the potential upside for Tua Tagovailoa, but I'm a little nervous about starting him Week 1 without Will Fuller at the New England. Still, he's available in more than a third of leagues and is an excellent backup if you have a starter you feel good about." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Lamar JacksonPatrick MahomesJosh AllenTom BradyKyler MurrayRussell WilsonAaron RodgersJalen HurtsDak Prescott Ryan TannehillJustin HerbertMatthew Stafford | | | | RB Preview | | By my count, we don't know who the lead back or how much the lead back will be used on at least 10 different teams heading into Week 1. Of those, Miami, Denver, Detroit, Tampa, L.A. Rams, and Arizona are probably the most interesting for Fantasy. We'll want to keep an especially close eye on those situations to see if we can get any clarity in Week 1, because a clear-cut No. 1 could be a must-start option in any of those spots. | | Number to know: 25% -- The Saints and Chargers were two of four teams last year to dedicate at least a fourth of their targets to running backs. Dan Campbell and Anthony Lynn are now together in Detroit, which is one of the reasons why D'Andre Swift can succeed on a bad Lions team.Matchup that matters: Mike Davis vs. PHI (10th-best vs. RB)Waiver add: Justin Jackson appears to be locked in as the No. 2 back behind Austin Ekeler, which we expect to mean 10 touches per game for as long as Jackson stays healthy. That's probably not good enough to start against the Washington Football Team, but it will be in some matchups. And if Ekeler goes down, Jackson could be a must-start back. He's averaged 14.6 PPR FP/G in five career games with at least 10 touches.Stash: Wayne Gallman is a much more capable backup than Qadree Ollison and would likely be a top-25 back should Mike Davis go down. It's not even that hard to imagine Davis struggling against a tough opening schedule and Gallman getting more work that way. | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Christian McCaffreyDalvin CookAlvin KamaraDerrick HenryAaron JonesAustin EkelerJonathan TaylorAntonio GibsonNick Chubb Ezekiel ElliottJoe MixonNajee Harris | | WR Preview | | The biggest question at wide receiver heading into Week 1 is at what point the young guys start to take over the top of the position. A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Justin Jefferson, Terry McLaurin, and CeeDee Lamb are all in their first three seasons, so the future is bright here. But which ones will take the leap to superstardom? | | Number to know: 10.4 -- Michael Thomas averaged 10.4 targets per game over the past two seasons. If Marquez Callaway earns 75% of that he'll be a must-start receiver.Matchup that matters: Allen Robinson vs. L.A. Rams (third-best vs. WR) Waiver add: "We didn't see Elijah Moore in the preseason because of an injury, but he was the absolute star of training camp before that. Moore is instantly amongst the fastest wide receivers in the NFL and he used that speed to averaged nearly 150 yards per game in his final season at Ole Miss. With Jamison Crowder likely out, Moore should be the second option on the team behind Corey Davis. Even if he isn't great against the Panthers, be patient. Rookie receivers can take a few weeks to get going." Stash: "T.Y. Hilton's neck injury appears to be less severe than was feared and there's some hope he could be ready by Week 4. If you have an IR spot, he's definitely worth a stash. I would still expect him to be Carson Wentz's favorite target once he's 100% healthy." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Davante AdamsTyreek HillDeAndre HopkinsCalvin RidleyStefon DiggsA.J. BrownDK MetcalfKeenan AllenJustin Jefferson Robert WoodsTerry McLaurinAllen Robinson | | | | TE Preview | | This is the first year I can remember in a while where the Fantasy industry didn't collectively try to convince ourselves the tight end position was deep. The consensus was, you either had one of the first six off the board or you didn't have someone you can rely on. Can anyone begin to make us regret that groupthink in Week 1? | | Number to know: 481 -- The 49ers only allowed 481 yards to tight ends all year last year. Everyone should still start T.J. Hockenson, but if he struggles we may have to think twice about Dallas Goedert next week.Matchup that matters: Austin Hooper vs. KC (31st vs. TE)Streamer: "Last year was a weird year for Hooper. He had an appendectomy, his team played two games in horrible weather, and his efficiency cratered. But he's still just 26 years old, there's no reason to think the surgery would still impact him, and hopefully the weather is better in 2021. He can't likely bounce back all the way to pre-2020 levels in this offense, but last year's volume with his career efficiency would be 70-716-5. That would play." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Travis KelceGeorge KittleMark AndrewsDarren WallerKyle PittsT.J. HockensonMike GesickiNoah FantLogan Thomas Rob GronkowskiDallas GoedertTyler Higbee | | ❤️ My Guys | | | | You've been reading my thoughts all preseason on who you should target, who you should avoid, and why. But how much have I been following my own advice? Well, I've got 10 drafts in the books for leagues that I'm playing out -- I've got two more to finish Wednesday night and then I'm finally finished -- so I figured now was a good time to take a look at the players I'm most invested in for the 2020 season. | | If you've been reading all along, most of these shouldn't surprise you. But even I have to admit, a few of them actually did surprise me. I wrote about the 12 players I've drafted in at least three of my 10 leagues, and you should head to that piece to read more about why and how that dozen ended up on so many of my rosters, but here are my thoughts on the four I've got in at least four leagues -- and it should surprise none of you to learn all four are wide receivers: | | Julio Jones -- Times picked: 6 -- Jones just seems like a screaming value to me, but I get why others are down on him. His 2020 season was derailed by injuries, so when you see him limited throughout much of camp with a leg injury, it's not hard to see why folks are scared off. Add in that he's changing teams for the first time as a 32-year-old from a high-volume passing offense to a low-volume one, and it makes sense that he's going lower than ever before. But the thing is, he showed no signs of actually being in decline last season when he was on the field, sporting the best yards-per-target of his career at 11.3. I don't think he'll do that again, but between sharing the field with A.J. Brown and catching passes from the hyper-efficient Ryan Tannehill , I think Jones should sustain elite efficiency yet again, which should make up for the volume concerns at least a little bit. And, with Brown on the opposite side and the deadly Tannehill/Derrick Henry combo in the red zone to worry about, Jones is going to see less defensive attention near the end zone than ever before. At some point, you have to overlook injury concerns and just take an elite player, and that point is usually in the fourth or fifth round for me. I'm thrilled to have him. Rondale Moore -- Times picked: 5 -- Moore was someone you could usually get with one of your last two or three picks, and I was happy to do it as often as I could. He might open the season as the Cardinals No. 4 receiver, but this is a team that figures to use four-wide sets more than any other in the league, so he'll see the field early and often. And, based on how he was used in the preseason -- nine touches on 49 snaps in two games -- he figures to have a significant role in this offense. I've called him "the skeleton key that can unlock everything Kliff Kingsbury wants to do on offense" all offseason based on his skills with the ball in his hands, and I wouldn't be surprised if he emerged as a must-start Fantasy WR sometime this year. Curtis Samuel -- Times picked: 4 -- I'm actually shocked I only have Samuel on four teams, because he was in my queue in absolutely every draft. I initially had him ranked as a top-24 WR coming into training camp but moved him down as he dealt with that lingering groin injury that has his status for Week 1 somewhat up in the air. If Samuel replicates the role he had in Ron Rivera's offense in 2019, when he saw a ton of high-value deep targets and added 19 carries, he could be a big-time playmaker with much-improved QB play. You may have to be patient with him, but I wouldn't be shocked if Samuel outscored Terry McLaurin this season, and that's not a knock on Terry. Ja'Marr Chase -- Times picked: 4 -- As Chase's value fell throughout camp, my interest level in drafting him rose proportionately. Expectations have significantly fallen for the No. 5 pick in this year's NFL Draft following a camp and preseason filled with drops, but I'm not sure they really should have. You aren't drafting a high-upside rookie because you think they'll be a Week 1 superstar; you're drafting them for the Justin Jefferson/Odell Beckham outcome, where they become must-start players after getting acclimated. Chase is an incredible talent, and even if he gets off to a slow start, he should reward your patience in the long run. | | Check out the rest of my most-drafted players here, and you can watch Jamey, Dave, and Heath discuss their most-drafted players here. | | 📫Trade Mailbag | | Don't let anyone tell you that you shouldn't make a trade before Week 1. You should always be looking to upgrade your roster, and there are invariably going to be some players whose value will never be higher than it is before they play a single game. If you're looking to swing an early deal, make sure you check out Dave Richard's Trade Values Chart, which will be published every Tuesday on CBSSports.com/Fantasy. | | And every Wednesday in this space, I'll be answering your trade questions, giving you the trade chart's spin as well as how I would approach the deals. If you want your trade questions answered, send them over to [email protected] with the subject line "#AskFFT" and I'll make sure they get answered next week: | | Michael: PPR league. Give up Jonathan Taylor and Travis Kelce, receive Ezekiel Elliott, Darren Waller, and Tyler Lockett. | | What the trade chart says: Giving up 65, getting 87What I say: This is a huge trade and a huge win for you! Giving up my No. 4 player in Kelce is a tough pill to swallow, but I know I'm a bit lower on Taylor than Dave is and a bit higher on both Waller and Lockett, so the gap might be even larger in my eyes. It would be fair if Lockett wasn't included; that you got him tossed in takes it over the top. | | Bob: I've been offered Odell Beckham and Josh Jacobs for Chris Carson. I have Nick Chubb, Antonio Gibson, Kareem Hunt, Jamaal Williams, Robert Woods, Terry McLaurin, Jerry Jeudy, Antonio Brown & Darnell Mooney. | | What the trade chart says: Giving up 23, getting 23What I say: I think it's pretty even, but I actually come away liking your side more. There's more potential room for Carson to emerge as a true three-down back than there is for Jacobs, and I'm not sure Beckham has all that much value in my eyes. It sounds like he may be limited in his playing time early on, and I'm just not convinced we're going to see that elite upside again from him -- certainly not in Cleveland. Beckham would be your WR5 in my eyes, so getting an upgrade at RB3/Flex is a win. | | Bryan: In my PPR league I came away strong at WR with Davante Adams, Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown, Robert Woods, Laviska Shenault, Marquez Callaway, and Jaylen Waddle. But I'm weaker at RB, with Carson, David Montgomery, Raheem Mostert, Michael Carter, and Rashaad Penny. I was offered Taylor for Ridley. We start three WR and a flex. Right now Woods is my flex, but would get bumped to WR3 with this trade, and my flex would be one of the remaining WR or David Montgomery. | | What the trade chart says: Giving up 29, getting 34What I say: Dave likes this one and so do I. If Taylor is an elite running back, he has a higher ceiling than Ridley as an elite WR, and I'm not sure he's dramatically riskier. It would give you two potential elite RB between Taylor and Montgomery while still leaving you with excellent WR depth. Do it. | | Larry: .5 ppr. Leaguemate is offering Travis Kelce and Clyde Edwards-Helaire for Mark Andrews and Ezekiel Elliott. I'm hesitant to give up Zeke for Clyde but would love to have Kelce on my roster. Have Saquon Barkley and Davis Montgomery as my other primary RBs. | | What the trade chart says: Giving up 59, getting 54What I say: I think it's pretty close, and I'm legitimately torn on it, but I do think the upgrade from Kelce to Andrews is bigger than the downgrade from Elliott to Edwards-Helaire. So, why doesn't it feel that way? Well, I think it's partially because Edwards-Helaire probably has more risk than anyone in this trade of being a mediocre Fantasy option. And, then you have the fact that you're dropping from fifth at RB in my rankings to 16th, vs. just from first to fourth at TE. However, this highlights one of the key points I've been trying to make all offseason: The edge a TE like Kelce gives you over even a very good, must-start option like Andrews is still one of the biggest you can get in this game. This is a good reminder of that. | | Den: PPR league where I wasn't available to pick my team. Autodraft went receiver with the first three picks so I am thinking about trying to trade for a solid RB1. I was thinking about offering Calvin Ridley in exchange for Austin Ekeler. Do you think I should do that or is there another trade you would recommend trying? | | What the trade chart says: Giving up 29, getting 31What I say: While I don't mind going with three WR to open my draft, my preference all along has been to end up with at least one RB in the first two rounds, and Ekeler is my No. 4 RB in PPR leagues, so I think this is a significant win for you if you could pull it off. And Dave's trade chart makes me think you can. Offer it up and see what happens, and don't hesitate to pull the trigger if the other team agrees. | | | | | | | | Drop In. Ride On. | | Start a Football Pool Today! | Tune into PBR RIDEPASS, exclusively on Pluto TV. Download the Pluto TV app to watch thrilling western sports, plus over 200 channels of movies, TV shows, news, sports and more, all 100% free.
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