| | | | Wednesday, January 3, 2024 | | Some of you may be thinking it's too early to start thinking about 2024, but the thing you have to understand is, we're going to be doing mock drafts as early as next week. And some people do drafts that count for 2024 as early as February. Fantasy Football is a year-round thing now. | | Myself, I won't be drafting any leagues that matter until April at the earliest, but I do like to go through the process of way-too-early rankings to establish where my baseline expectations for the next season are. I try hard not to anchor to those expectations, because so much will change between now and the summer, but I like to have them to look back at. Did my position change on a given player? And if so, why? Am I following the crowds, or did something tangibly change? | | Today and tomorrow, I'm going to run through my top 12 for QB, RB, WR, and TE for 2024, with the first two positions up first. Of course, for those of you still playing into Week 18, it might actually be too early to start thinking about 2024 – you have games to win this week. Luckily, the FFT team is still at work on that. So, before we get to the rankings for QB and RB, make sure you check out Heath Cummings' Week 18 previews below: | | Position Previews: QB | RB | WR | TE | | And now, here's your first look at my rankings for QB and RB. | | | | Too-Early QB Rankings | | | | You're going to hear a lot about how early-round QBs "failed" in 2023, but I don't agree. Based on NFC ADP, three quarterbacks were going in the first two rounds on average, and two of them ended up the top two scorers at the position, including terrific playoff production. A two-out-of-three hit rate looks pretty good when you go back and compare it to, say, how the early-round running backs fared. Injuries were a huge problem at QB, to be sure, but I'm not necessarily sure there's any reason to think that trend is going to carry over into 2024. I think there's still a lot of value in being one of the first people in your league to take a QB, though I will say, the way the rankings look right now, if I'm not one of the first three, I'm probably going to be the last person to take a QB in most of my leagues. | | Here's why: | | 1. Josh Allen – This one shouldn't be controversial. Allen hasn't finished worse than QB2 in per-game scoring since 2019, and he's the only player to average at least 25 points per game in four straight seasons. He's more than a point per game clear of No. 2 right now, and 2.5 points clear of QB3. The Bills have some real looming questions about the weapons around Allen that they've gotta figure out, and he won't replicate his 15 rushing touchdowns again. But there's a clear No. 1 QB in Fantasy, and it's Allen. | | 2. Jalen Hurts – And I think Hurts gives us a clear tier of two at the top. There have been few signs that Hurts can't stand up to the physical toll of his rushing workload, and he made up for some efficiency losses as a passer with more volume, as hoped. And, with double-digit touchdowns in three straight years, his 15 rushing touchdowns don't look at all unsustainable, even with discussions of banning the "tush push." | | | | 3. Patrick Mahomes – Mahomes' terrible, horrible, no-good, very-bad season has seen him drop all the way to QB7 in per-game scoring. I don't want to downplay his struggles, I just think it's worth putting it into context. Rashee Rice 's development down the stretch gives Mahomes that second reliable weapon, but I'd feel better about this ranking if they add one more reliable playmaker to this offense. But I'm absolutely going to be buying the dip on Mahomes in drafts in 2024. | | 4. Lamar Jackson – Jackson is no longer the clear best runner at the QB position, and selfishly, you'd like to see the Ravens make him more of a priority near the goal line – his 29 total touchdowns this season are behind Jordan Love, Brock Purdy and Jared Goff and tied with Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff. There's still room for one of those Allen/Hurts-esque 40-plus touchdown seasons from Jackson and a 25-PPG ceiling, but we haven't really seen it since 2019 at this point, so you can't expect it in the way we do from the top two guys. | | 5. Joe Burrow – It was a tale of three seasons for Burrow, really. There was the first four weeks when he was, frankly, awful, with two passing touchdowns across those four games. Then, there was the stretch where he looked like himself, with five straight multi-touchdown games where he averaged 26.2 points per game. Then … well, his season ended in Week 11 with that wrist injury, keeping him out of the final seven games. The fact we saw Burrow play at a high level makes it a lot easier to write off that first month as the result of the calf injury he suffered late in the preseason. I don't think the ceiling is quite as high here, so I think there's a tier drop from Jackson to Burrow, but if his price is cheaper than it was in 2023, I'll take it. | | 6. Justin Herbert – Herbert didn't quite bounce back to the level of his first two seasons, but as always, there are extenuating circumstances with a Chargers team that fell apart around him (before he subsequently fell apart with a season-ending finger injury). The Chargers are in a tough spot, because they've got a 26-year-old franchise QB who is about to make significant money surrounded by an aging core of skill players who gave us very little reason to be optimistic about the future here. The status of that skill group drops Herbert below Burrow, and seemingly missing on the Quentin Johnston pick looks like a huge problem for this team moving forward. But I'm also not going to bet against a 26-year-old with Herbert's proven upside. | | | | 7. Anthony Richardson – I think you could go in a number of different directions with No. 6, and things really open up from there. I'll give Richardson the edge on a number of other similar options for the ridiculous upside he showed, throwing three touchdowns and adding four more on the ground in effectively two and a third games. Of course, he also got hurt almost immediately, first with a concussion and then a shoulder injury that ultimately ended his rookie season in Week 5. That's a massive red flag, but he also might be Josh Allen 2.0. I'm going to chase upside once the sure things are done. | | 8. Justin Fields – I think you can make a case for Fields as the No. 3 or 4 QB in Fantasy for 2024 if there weren't so much uncertainty surrounding him. He's taken a step forward as a passer and with his processing, but the latter remains the biggest flaw in his game, and a reason why the Bears will at least consider taking Caleb Williams or Drake Maye with the No. 1 pick in the draft. I think even if that happens, Fields should be starting somewhere, and a team like Pittsburgh or Atlanta could give him the weapons to remain a must-start Fantasy option, but that uncertainty, along with some continued inconsistency this season, makes him tougher to trust. | | 9. C.J. Stroud – If you wanted to put Stroud in the Burrow/Herbert tier, I would have no problem with it. But there's just a bit more uncertainty there given his smaller track record and the fact that he doesn't have as many paths to elite production as someone like Richardson. Stroud probably has to be a top-three passer in the NFL to be a top-five Fantasy QB given his merely decent production as a rusher. He may be that, but I'll take a slightly more cautious approach in ranking him here for now. | | 10. Brock Purdy – We're 21 starts into Purdy's career and he's averaging 9.2 yards per attempt with a 7.2% touchdown rate. The career leader in Y/A with at least 1,500 pass attempts since 1975 is at 8.2; the touchdown rate leader is at 6.2%. Purdy is lapping the field, and he's surrounded by the best group of weapons in the NFL and arguably the league's premier offensive mind – Kyle Shanahan is the reason that the current Y/A leader is Jimmy Garoppolo, after all. Maybe Purdy's just all smoke and mirrors and he'll fall apart – any day now – or maybe the situation will just suddenly get a lot worse. But it feels kind of silly doubting him at this point. He doesn't have the volume to produce that 25-PPG upside, but he feels like one of the safer bets for the next tier. | | 11. Tua Tagovailoa – Everything I said about Purdy? Yeah, it pretty much applies to Tagovailoa, who is averaging 8.6 yards per attempt and a 5.7% touchdown rate over the past two seasons. It all feels a little more fragile with him, both because of Tagovailoa's injury history and how we've seen a few more cracks in Miami's offense at times this season. But 4,500 yards and 30-plus touchdowns feels like a safe bet for a healthy Tagovailoa at this point, with 5,000 and 40 within the realm of possibility. | | 12. Dak Prescott – Here's where we'll list the other players I considered for this spot: Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins , Jordan Love, Jared Goff. I think you could make a case for any one of them, and I think some people will make the case for Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson belonging in the conversation. I think taking Allen or Hurts early or Mahomes a little later will probably be my preferred approach, but if not, there will be plenty of later-round options to fall back on. 2023 was kind of a tough year for the QB position, but the position still feels deep enough in solid options to justify any number of different approaches. | | Too-Early RB Rankings | | | | Running back is probably the toughest position to rank nine months away from the start of the season, because so much of RB value comes from circumstances surrounding a player. And it might be more true than ever right now. Partly that's because the generation of running backs who have dominated the position for the past half-decade or so have largely fallen off -- though you won't have to scroll long to see an example of why that's not entirely true. And partly, it's because the next generation hasn't quite stepped up to take over the position yet. Injuries that derailed the likes of JK Dobbins, Cam Akers, and Javonte Williams haven't helped; neither have high-profile first-round flops like Najee Harris and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Add it all up, and we've got an RB landscape that looks incredibly confusing heading into 2024. There's consensus at the top, but there might not be any agreement between any two Fantasy analysts on any other spot at RB. | | Things are truly wide open. Here's how I'm ranking it right now. Ask me again tomorrow and I might have a different answer. | | 1. Christian McCaffrey – I don't really need to make the case for McCaffrey, who enters Week 18 with 121 more PPR points than any other player at the RB position. So, just for fun, I thought I'd remind you all of who the other running backs from the first three rounds of McCaffrey's draft class are: Leonard Fournette (No. 4 overall pick), Dalvin Cook (41), Joe Mixon (48), Alvin Kamara (48), Kareem Hunt (86), D'Onta Foreman (89), James Conner (105). McCaffrey is going to be the No. 1 pick in pretty much every league in 2024; there might not be a Week 1 starter among the rest of them. We're reaching the point where McCaffrey has to be discussed as one of the best Fantasy Football players ever. | | 2. Breece Hall – Things are completely wide open after you get past McCaffrey, and I'm fascinated to see how everyone else approaches it. I'm giving the edge to Hall, who didn't play more than half his team's snaps until Week 5 but averaged 19.3 PPR points per game from that point on. He struggled with efficiency as a runner in a dreadful Jets offense, but was a big part of the offense as a pass-catcher, and definitely showed he still has the home-run hitting ability coming off a torn ACL. If the Jets offense is merely mediocre in 2024, Hall could absolutely challenge for the RB1 spot. | | 3. Bijan Robinson – Ranking Robinson ahead of the next guy on this list might just be an example of sticking too stubbornly with the pre-draft expectations. But I also do think it's reasonable to expect improvement from the Falcons offense in 2024, both because they have to improve their QB situation and maybe because they'll improve the coaching situation. Robinson had strong usage, with 203 carries and 78 targets in 16 games to date, but there was still entirely too much Tyler Allgeier to be seen. Robinson is a special player, with a skill set perfectly suited for Fantasy dominance, and hopefully the situation will improve enough to allow him to unlock his upside. | | 4. Jahmyr Gibbs – If you want to rank Gibbs ahead of Robinson, I have absolutely no problem with it. I waffled on that one many times. Gibbs showed he's a special player in his own right, and managed to average 17.1 PPR points per game over the past eight games despite David Montgomery being active for all of them. I'm giving Robinson the edge based on a stronger projected workload, though obviously playing in Detroit helps Gibbs shrink that gap even with Montgomery's presence. It's just easier to see a path to 250 carries and 100 targets for Robinson than Gibbs. | | 5. Jonathan Taylor – Taylor is, to a certain extent, living off the good will produced by his massive 2021 season. Injuries and contract issues limited him to just nine games so far, and he hasn't really looked like a superstar for much of the season, which is a concern. And there are certainly questions about his pass-catching, both because of his sometimes limited usage in that part of the game and because of Richardson's presence as a more mobile quarterback. At this point, Taylor might be more like a high-floor player than one with gigantic upside, but he's also still just 25 in 2024, so I don't want to pigeonhole him that way. I will say this: I'm probably more likely to move Taylor down than up from here. | | 6. Devon Achane – Achane is going to be one of the most interesting players to debate this offseason, because if the Dolphins talk about increasing his usage, he's going to shoot up draft boards, and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up a top-five pick in Fantasy drafts by the summer. He was an electric playmaker as a rookie, averaging 8.0 yards per carry, and had a significant role in the passing game, where the Dolphins would often split him out wide and throw him the ball down the field. The skill set is unquestionably elite. The question here is whether the Dolphins want to give Achane more of an every-down role and then whether he can hold up to that – he missed time in training camp with a shoulder injury, then went on IR with a knee injury, before dealing with a toe injury later in the season. Achane is going to be the ultimate YOLO pick of the 2024 first round. | | 7. Kyren Williams – Williams might be the other most-debated player in Fantasy this offseason. He might be the best waiver-wire pickup in the history of Fantasy Football, but he's also a fifth-round pick with mediocre athleticism and a history of high-ankle injuries, which is a profile you generally don't want to bet on over a multi-year time span. The Rams tend to ride one back when they find one they like, and they clearly have a lot to like about Williams, who is second in the NFL in rushing yards despite missing four games. He's also a viable option in the passing game, so there really hasn't been much to complain about this season. If that wasn't a fluke, he belongs in the top five of drafts. | | 8. Travis Etienne – Etienne went from an efficiency monster as a rookie to more of a volume-play in year two. The question is, were those things related? Can he combine the efficiency of his rookie season, when he averaged 5.1 yards per carry, with the volume of his second season, when he averaged nearly three more carries per game. With a solid role in the passing game and no issues in short-yardage after questions cropped up about both skills as a rookie, Etienne has a super-high floor. If he can get back to his rookie season efficiency, Etienne could be a contender for the top three at RB. | | 9. James Cook – The Bills made Cook a bigger part of their game plan in the second half of the season, and he gave us a hint of how high the upside could be if they did that for a full season. From Week 11 on, he averaged 18.1 PPR points per game on 17.3 carries and 3.7 targets per game, and he did that despite continuing to cede important work near the goal line. Cook has shown he can be a big part of this offense as both a runner and pass-catcher, If they ever decide to trust him in the short-yardage role, there's definitely top-five upside here. Maybe I need to move him up even more. | | 10. Josh Jacobs – Jacobs went from being one of the most efficient high-volume runners in the league to one of the least in the span of a year before ultimately suffered a quad injury to end the season. But, relative to other running backs entering free agency, Jacobs is young enough at 26 to still potentially earn the kind of contract that locks him into another high-volume role, hopefully on a better team. He's a proven three-down player who can handle the workload, and could be a great fit somewhere like Dallas, Denver, or Cincinnati if they want to go that route. The landing spot will be key – assuming Jacobs leaves Las Vegas – but he could end up right back in the first two rounds of drafts if things fall right. | | 11. Saquon Barkley – I'm slotting Barkley in here with the hope that he lands in a better situation in 2024, because he's been kind of wasted in New York. He'll be 27 by the time free agency starts, which will likely lead to a pretty cool market for his services coming off a down year, but he's still a three-down talent who could still be a must-start Fantasy RB in a better offense. But if you're skeptical, I can't blame you. | | 12. Rachaad White – White had a tremendous Fantasy season, entering Week 18 as RB6 in PPR scoring … and I think there's a decent chance he doesn't end up drafted among the first 20 running backs by the time summer rolls around. He was the only running back on Tampa's roster with more than 60 touches entering Week 18, which helped make up for the fact that he was one of the most inefficient runners in the league, averaging 3.6 yards per carry, with some of the worst advanced metrics in the game. Now, to be fair, he was a terrific pass-catcher, hauling in 91% of his targets for 8.0 yards per target, and I think he's got a role as a third-down back in this league for sure. But, if the Buccaneers go out and add an early-down option, I wouldn't be surprised at all. For now, I'll keep White here, but he could tumble. | | | | | | | | NFL Slimetime | | MaxPreps App | Watch NFL Slimetime, co-hosted by Nate Burleson and Young Dylan, on Wednesdays at 7:30/6:30c on Nickelodeon and streaming the next day on Paramount+!
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