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| Friday, June 28, 2024 |
| There are two buckets that data providers place defensive coverages into -- "zone" or "man" coverage. And of course, we can get far more granular within those buckets if interested in exploring specific types of zone coverages. "Two-high" safety defensive looks and "single-high" coverages are two common phrases used to begin looking at zone coverage in a more specific way. Cover-0, Cover-2, Cover-4, and Cover-6 are the specific schemes that the FantasyPoints Data Suite designates as two-high, while Cover-1 and the NFL's most-common defense, Cover-3, are single-high coverage schemes. |
| Even within a play that is charted as zone coverage, some route runners may face individual man coverage. I've heard the Bootleg Fantasy Football crew (Brett Kollman and E.J. Snyder) say "everything turns into man coverage 20 yards down the field," a fun adage that is applicable for today's discussion. At a base level, without even considering scheme or anything else, what we're we'll talk about today is a wide receiver's ability to win in one-on-one situations. |
| If you're deep enough into the football matrix that you're here reading this newsletter, you likely are aware of the fact that zone coverage and two-high safety usage have been steadily increasing in recent years. In 2023, only 24% of defensive plays were charted as man coverage. It's pretty rare to see a defense match up and play straight-up man-to-man from the snap -- only four teams were charted as using man coverage on over one-third of defensive plays. |
| If receivers are likely to be running the vast majority of routes against zone, why does beating man coverage even matter? Does it matter? |
| Matt Harmon's research on ReceptionPerception.com shows that success rate vs. man actually carries a notably higher correlation with future Fantasy scoring than success rate vs. zone. Matt charts each receiver's routes and grades them using his own proprietary system. The research in that article is very interesting if you want to learn more about the topic. |
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| I've started tracking coverage data at the wide receiver position in 2019. The data I have available dates back to 2017, so I've studied the 2017-2018 seasons as well. As I've monitored this data, I've noticed that many of the receivers who end up breaking out and turning into Fantasy stars posted excellent early-career man coverage data. There are some exceptions. Amon-Ra St. Brown turned into a Fantasy superstar even with early-career man coverage data that was mid. He's an elite zone coverage beater in an offensive environment perfectly suited for his skillset. There are exceptions, not every elite Fantasy WR comes from the elite man coverage data tree. |
| A lot sure do, though! Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase were insanely good at the NFL level right away, and their strongest splits came when defenses attempted to use man coverage against them. A.J. Brown, Stefon Diggs, DK Metcalf, and D.J. Moore all posted fantastic data against man coverage early in their career that hinted at superstar potential before their actual Fantasy breakouts. |
| Beating man coverage sure seems like an important early-career signal of long-term success at the wide receiver position, and it makes sense. Even though the league is moving to more zone coverage, being able to win in one-on-one situations is always going to be important at the WR position. That's especially true when in scoring distance. |
| 2023 man coverage rates: |
21% — outside of the red zone
33% — in the red zone
39% — inside the 10 |
| The league leaders in red zone and end zone targets each year are a lot of the same players who show up at the top of man coverage efficiency rates. Coincidence? I think not! |
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| Who are the best man coverage beaters? |
| If you read Monday's newsletter, I detailed how per-route data can help us as Fantasy players. The most-common per-route rate that you'll hear referenced is yards per route run, but that (like any) can be a flawed metric. Here's an excerpt from Monday's newsletter, if you missed it: |
| "Another important contextual piece to understanding per-route data: sample size is super important. The smaller the sample of routes run, the larger the impact that any single route can have. If a player scores an 80-yard touchdown on a play where his defender slips, that's not in any way indicative of future success. And yet, that singular outcome would have a massive influence on the player's season-long yard per route run rate, which we know to be one of the most predictive statistics available. This phenomenon highlights exactly why first downs per route run are also relevant. In the example just given, a fluke 80-yard touchdown reception results in just one first down. Knowledge of discrepancies that exist between a player's first down and yard per route run rates can potentially highlight fraudulent production that is unlikely to be replicable." |
| With that in mind, enjoy some fun data visualizations using targets, first downs, and yards per route run splits vs. man coverage. |
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| Our first chart highlights the players who have recorded the highest target and yard per route run rates vs. man coverage over the past two seasons. Studs like CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, D.J. Moore, Justin Jefferson, and Brandon Aiyuk (and Mike Williams!) jump off the page here. Let's see how those names hold up when compared to first downs per route run. |
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| 75 routes is a super small sample size. Mike Evans didn't face much man coverage (89 routes) in 2023, for instance, so maybe take his rate with a grain of salt. Nico Collins only ran 75 routes vs. man coverage! Displayed below are the results from the past two seasons, for a larger sample. |
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| Christian Kirk stands out to me! Also, it's worth noting that St. Brown has made steady improvements to his man coverage data and is now one of the league's best in this metric as well. He's so dang good. |
| Matt Harmon's Reception Perception findings showed something similar. |
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| Press coverage and man coverage are not the same thing. Beating press coverage is also important! I created a Twitter thread to discuss the topic of press coverage for Fantasy purposes, if you want to check that out. Harmon graded St. Brown's work against man coverage as the best of his career in 2023, you can read the full Sun God profile here. |
| While we're discussing Matt's work, it's important to differentiate between his coverage "success rates" and the per-route data that I'm pulling from TruMedia. A receiver only has so much control over their per-route results. The best example -- Garrett Wilson. Harmon has Wilson graded with the highest man coverage success rate among the receivers he has evaluated this offseason. If you only considered Wilson's per-route data, you never would have come to this conclusion. That's a Zach Wilson etc problem -- per-route data can only take us so far in understanding what's happening on the field. It's critical to consider all of the factors that go into the results that we get, which is why I cannot recommend Matt's work highly enough. |
| So, who are currently the "best" against man coverage? Here's my shortlist: |
1. Justin Jefferson
2. A.J. Brown
3. CeeDee Lamb
4. Tyreek Hill
5. Garrett Wilson
6. Ja'Marr Chase
7. Brandon Aiyuk
8. Nico Collins
9. DJ Moore
10. Mike Evans |
| Yes, Wilson is Matt's WR1 vs. man coverage so far. But, he has yet to chart Brown, Jefferson, Lamb, Hill, Aiyuk, or Moore. Wilson's man coverage success rate (78.6%) was better than Collins (77.6%) or Chase (75.4%), though! Wilson's 2023 rate would have ranked fifth among the receivers that Matt charted in 2022, for reference. Wilson posted a 74.5% success rate as a rookie, so this is a noteworthy Year 1-to-Year 2 jump! |
| Knowing the absolute best against man coverage is fun, but I believe the real value in man coverage data comes in applying it to early and late-career wide receivers. Let's shift our focus to how we can use this data to identify some potential breakouts or late-career receivers we should be avoiding. |
| The best up-and-coming WRs against man coverage |
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| Nico Collins |
| Collins currently has the second-highest Reception Perception success rate vs. man coverage. His rate would have ranked sixth among the receivers charted by Matt in 2022, just behind Davante Adams and ahead of Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb. From a yards per route run perspective, only Lamb posted a higher rate vs. man in 2023. This was always an area where Collins thrived, and he elevated his game to new heights in Year 3. I can't say enough about Collins, he's a single-man coverage nightmare and then he's a threat to create after the catch. |
| Nico Collins Reception Perception Profile |
| Chris Olave |
| What's so dang impressive about Olave's per-route data vs. man coverage (fifth in 2023 yards per route vs. man) is that it has come within an offensive environment that has done him absolutely no favors. Earlier, I made caveats for Garrett Wilson's mid per-route rates, but we don't have to do that with Olave! |
| Reception Perception displays Olave as one of the best man coverage performers as well. I remain extremely bullish on his long-term outlook, and new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak could elevate (more on that here in case you missed our first 'In The Lab' installment last Friday) the already-impressive results that we've seen. |
| Chris Olave Reception Perception Profile |
| Puka Nacua |
| Nacua's yard per route run rate rose from 2.67 vs. zone coverage to 2.80 when facing man. He's a stud who thrived in all situations as a rookie. |
| Yard per route run rate vs. man coverage as a rookie: |
4.00 -- Justin Jefferson
3.41 -- JuJu Smith-Schuster (injuries suck)
3.38 -- Ja'Marr Chase
3.11 -- A.J. Brown
2.80 -- Puka Nacua
2.43 -- Chris Olave
2.42 -- Garrett Wilson |
| That's the range that Nacua's rookie season fell into. Not quite the absurd range of Jefferson, Chase, and Brown, but clearly ahead of Olave and Wilson. |
| Puka Nacua Reception Perception Profile |
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| Drake London |
| London's per-route rates came down across the board in Year 2. |
| Targets per route run vs. man coverage |
36.6% -- Year 1
31.5% -- Year 2 |
| First downs per route run |
14.6% -- Year 1
12.0% -- Year 2 |
| Yards per route run |
2.30 -- Year 1
1.99 - Year 2 |
| His RP success rate vs. man dropped from 72.3% to 71.8%. Still, these are all really impressive metrics for a guy who has yet to even hit his 23rd birthday. Since entering the league, London has drawn targets against man coverage at the highest per-route rate of any receiver not named A.J. Brown or Tyreek Hill. |
| Drake London Reception Perception Profile |
| Josh Downs |
| Among the receivers that he has evaluated, Harmon only graded two as better against man coverage than Downs in 2023. Awesome. Josh Downs is so fun. His per-route data isn't very exciting, but I thought Downs looked incredible when healthy early in the year. I'm very excited to see how his per-route rates evolve in his second season so we can form a better idea of what type of career trajectory Downs might be on. |
| Josh Downs Reception Perception Profile |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
| Smith-Njigba actually registered a higher RP man coverage success rate than London in 2023. His per-route rates were notably improved against man coverage: |
Man coverage splits
- 25% target per route run rate
- 9% first down per route run rate
- 1.95 yards per route run |
Zone coverage splits
- 18% TPRR
- 5% 1D/RR
- 1.14 YPRR |
| Another interesting note on Smith-Njigba: his per-route rates were a lot better when not in the slot. The upside that we saw displayed in 2021 at Ohio State may still be accessible to JSN even after a massively underwhelming statistical output as a rookie. |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba Reception Perception Profile |
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| Our second application of man coverage data is about aging wide receivers. Before starting that conversation, I want to quickly highlight two players: Josh Palmer and Curtis Samuel. Both offer a realistic chance of leading their respective offenses in targets in 2024, and part of the reasoning behind believing in either is predicated on their ability to beat man coverage. |
| Curtis Samuel Reception Perception Profile |
| What does man coverage data say about aging WRs? |
| I'm going to let my man Dwain McFarland answer this one. Check it out -- hot off the press with new never-seen-before data, among a myriad of interesting factors related to the topic of WR age-related performance, McFarland depicts the relevance of coverage type splits and what we might be able to learn from this information as wide receivers age. Dwain is a gift to the Fantasy community, the man puts in work! Give that article a read! |
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Still got it -- Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins
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| Dwain's article was inspired by a Twitter thread that I put together two weeks ago. That thread was inspired by my time spent painfully watching all of Cooper Kupp's routes from 2023. So, I guess that time ended up worth it in the end? |
| Kupp did not look like himself last year. I question whether it was worth the time, because what is the actionable takeaway from that discovery? We have no way of knowing how much injury affected his play, so all we can do is speculate on whether he's going to bounce back with better health or if his time as a productive player is over. Who knows? I was hoping I might find a more optimistic takeaway in his film. |
| Anyway, here we are now learning new stuff because of that exploration. Man coverage data seems to be an important metric to track as receivers age. Makes sense! |
| Displayed below are the groupings that I placed each player into after digging into their man coverage data. |
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| Mike Evans |
| Evans had a low total number of routes run vs. man coverage, and his RP success rate vs. man was actually not all that impressive. I wondered if his wildly impressive 2023 man coverage data was a result of a few big plays, then, as I know he was super efficient with his downfield opportunities and efficiency on those plays can fluctuate a lot year-over-year. However, his 20% first down per route run rate trailed only Nico Collins in 2023. So, it certainly wasn't only big plays. |
| We have no sign of Evans slowing down at this point in his career. Age-related drop-offs can come precipitously, but I'm inclined to believe in Evans given what we saw last season. |
| Amari Cooper |
| Cooper ranks 15th in targets and yards per route run and 11th in first downs per route run vs. man coverage over the past two seasons. His rates dropped a bit in 2023, but if you remove any routes run with Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Cooper's first down per route run rate vs. man (14.5%) was actually higher in 2023 than in 2022. |
| Keenan Allen |
| Kellen Moore absolutely helped to boost Allen's 2023 efficiency. Still, I filtered his 2023 results to only include routes run vs. man coverage from the perimeter and without pre-snap motion and he was still highly effective within that split. Not that it really matters much, as Allen will surely be mostly used in the slot in Chicago, right? It's not as if he'll be asked to go win on the perimeter all that often with Rome Odunze and DJ Moore as teammates. |
| I'm super encouraged by what we've seen from Allen late into his career. A fall-off could come at any moment, and for Fantasy purposes, we have reasons to be concerned about his offensive environment in 2024. Obviously, a rookie QB and a new offensive system raise red flags. There's also real potential for Allen's route participation to be the lowest its been in a very long time given Chicago's deep WR room. If he comes off of the field for two-receiver sets, Allen may end up playing roughly two-thirds of the snaps. New Bears OC Shane Waldron only employed three-receiver sets 65% of the time in Seattle in 2023, even with a talented trio of receivers. |
| Allen's data shows no sign of a decline. That doesn't necessarily mean that his Fantasy production won't dip in a meaningful way, though. |
| DeAndre Hopkins |
| Like Allen, Hopkins will be facing more target competition than he has in quite some time. I am still projecting D Hop to lead his team in targets, as he always does. As detailed in the Monday newsletter post, Hopkins was awesome on a per-route basis in 2023. Those rates only rose against man coverage. |
| At the right price, I'm still targeting each of these four late-career receivers in 2024 drafts. I have not drafted much, if any, of the Diggs, Kupp, Adams, and Lockett group. If you want to dive into the man coverage information on that group of late-career receivers, start here, and once again I will point you to Dwain McFarland's article on aging receivers. |
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