US-China Trade War 2.0

By Ed D'Agostino | November 15, 2024

Right now, many people are wondering if Trump is serious about slapping a 60% tariff on all goods from China. It’s certainly possible. What I can say with confidence is that a new wave of tariffs is coming.

Our guest today on Global Macro Update, Shehzad Qazi, agrees. He pegs the probability of a US-China trade war in 2025 at 100%.

Shehzad is the managing director at China Beige Book, a leading source for economic data and analysis on China for institutional investors. He expects Trump to sign tariff legislation on day one of his second term. In our interview, Shehzad discusses what this means for US-China relations, along with China’s staggering trade surpluses, and how Europe and emerging markets fit into the looming trade war.

We also cover the truth about China’s real estate crisis and the Taiwan problem. Shehzad says Taiwan might be less interested in defending itself against China than many here in the US would like.

What does slower growth in China mean for the global economy? Is India the next China? Can China become a consumer-driven economy in the near term? Get Shehzad’s take in our interview by clicking the image below.

A full transcript of our conversation is available here.

Thanks for reading and watching.

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