| |
|
| Friday, January 28, 2022 |
| We're down to the final four this weekend, which means we're down to one of our last opportunities to play a little bit of Fantasy Football for a long time. If you're looking to toss some DFS lineups out there this weekend, we've got a few resources you'll need to check out to help out: |
The Fantasy Football Today DFS Show's preview of the Conference Championship slate SportsLine's DFS optimal lineups, rankings and projectionsJamey Eisenberg's DFS breakdown Some lineup suggestions from Jamey, Dave Richard, and Adam Aizer on Thursday's FFT podcast
|
| Even if you're not playing DFS this weekend, of course, there's plenty of storylines you'll want to keep an eye on in these two games. Here's one key thing to watch from each team in Sunday's games: |
| Bengals -- Do the Bengals continue to lean on the passing game? I've got Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase as top-12 WR for 2022, but they'll need to remain pass-heavy for that to be realistic. Chiefs -- Will Clyde Edwards-Helaire be more involved? He played just 30% of the snaps in the Division Round win over the Bills , but it was his first game in four weeks, so maybe that's why. If he remains a bit player in the playoffs, how could you trust him as a Fantasy starter in 2022?49ers -- Does Jimmy Garoppolo make the 49ers have to think hard about keeping him? The 49ers have won both games so far, but Garoppolo has just 303 yards with two interceptions and no touchdowns. If they keep winning, does that change Trey Lance's timeline? Would they really walk away from Garoppolo coming off his second Super Bowl appearance in three years? Rams -- Can Cam Akers have a breakout game? The fact that Akers is even playing is a minor miracle, but he also has just 106 yards on 46 carries in three games since returning. He's getting the workload we want to see, but I'd feel better about betting on him as an early-round player if he could put together a big game, too. |
| That's what I'll be keeping track of this weekend as I watch the games, with an eye on what those questions will mean for 2022 -- and beyond. And the rest of today's newsletter is all about that "and beyond" thing. We've got Heath Cummings' latest updated Dynasty rankings and tiers for each position, with some of my thoughts on the top players at each position. Let's look to the future. |
| |
| Updated Dynasty Rankings & Tiers |
| |
| Introducing the Dynasty element to Fantasy doesn't necessarily dramatically change how you should approach things, which is one mistake a lot of new players make. Obviously, Dynasty introduces a long-term element to team building that doesn't exist in standard Fantasy, and thus requires you to be more active about turning your roster over and while opening contending windows for yourself. |
| But the truth is, it can be very easy to overvalue the future in Dynasty leagues. If you look at any Dynasty rankings from even three years ago, you'll see what I mean – here's one random (but representative) example from 2019 that had Saquon Barkley and Michael Thomas as top-three overall players. Miles Sanders, Kenny Golladay, and Odell Beckham were top-25 guys as well. That's not a critique of those rankings, it's just to highlight how much changes in a relatively short time in Fantasy. |
| So, when you're valuing players, you might be inclined to put a huge premium on age. A 22-year-old CeeDee Lamb has a lot more time left in his prime than, say, a 29-year-old Davante Adams. However, you can still reasonably expect to be an elite Fantasy WR for at least the next few seasons; there's no guarantee you ever get a top-12 WR season from CeeDee Lamb, let alone the kind of 20-point-per-game production Adams has given you the past four seasons. |
| So, age matters, but it's not the only thing that matters. The next season should be the one that you put the most weight on when it comes to Dynasty value, generally speaking. There's no one-size-fits-all answer to how to value every player, of course, because in Dynasty, where your team is in the building cycle makes a big difference in whether you'd rather have Adams or Lamb (preferably, with an additional piece coming back to you. |
| Of course, don't just take my word for it. Heath Cummings is our resident Dynasty guy here at FFT, and he's spent the time since the end of the Fantasy season updating his Dynasty rankings for the offseason. If you play in Dynasty leagues, make sure you bookmark our Dynasty landing page, where everything we do around Dynasty content, from updated rankings to rookie draft profiles, will be found there. |
| And now, here are Heath's updated Dynasty tiers for each position: |
| QB Dynasty Tiers |
| Tier 1 |
| Patrick MahomesJosh AllenLamar JacksonJustin Herbert |
| Tier 2 |
| Kyler MurrayJoe Burrow |
| The top of this position shouldn't be controversial, though I certainly wouldn't be surprised if at least some people have Joe Burrow in Tier 1 – even potentially ahead of Jackson . I wouldn't advise that, and I'm glad to see Heath isn't making that leap. Burrow's run to close out the regular season has been incredible, and obviously, he has elite weapons who are going to grow up with him. However, he's not much of a factor in the running game, which makes it hard to be a consistent top-five QB for Fantasy – you have to be one of the two or three best passers in the league to pull it off. Burrow could be that, but it's too early to push him above the likes of Jackson. I might even argue that Herbert might be out of place in Tier 1, but I wouldn't argue it too strenuously. |
| You can find Heath's full QB rankings here. |
| RB Dynasty Tiers |
| Tier 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor |
| Tier 2 |
| Najee HarrisD'Andre SwiftChristian McCaffrey |
| Running back is probably the toughest position to handle for Dynasty, because RB peaks tend to be so short, and the position has so much turnover from year to year. Taylor is the only young running back who has provided elite production for a full season, though I'd remind you that Christian McCaffrey won't be 26 until this June and could conceivably still have three years left as an elite performer. In my eyes, he's still the best player in Fantasy, and since I don't think you can really look beyond two or three years when it comes to running backs anyway, I'd slot him in Tier 1, personally. |
| Tier 3 is bigger than both Tier 1 and 2 combined, which makes sense. You've got up-and-comers like J.K. Dobbins and Javonte Williams who have plenty of potential but haven't proven themselves over a full season yet, plus the last few years of elite production from the likes of Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, and Austin Ekeler. I think Cook might be in Tier 2 if not for his lengthy injury history. He has issues in both shoulders that makes it really hard to trust him long term. |
| You can find Heath's full RB rankings here. |
| WR Dynasty Tiers |
| Tier 1 |
| Ja'Marr ChaseJustin Jefferson |
| Tier 2 |
| Davante AdamsCeeDee LambCooper KuppTyreek HillDK Metcalf |
| I might quibble with Chase vs. Jefferson, but if you manage to find yourself in a situation where you're choosing between both of them, rest assured, you're in a good spot. They're both under 23 and have put up historic production early in their careers. If neither turns in a No. 1 overall WR season in the next three seasons, it would be pretty shocking, which is saying quite a lot. |
| After Tier 1 is where it gets really interesting. The best players at the position besides Jefferson and Chase are all mostly on the wrong side of 25 – Adams, Kupp, and Hill will all be 28 or 29 in 2022. But the younger players haven't quite established themselves as elite players yet. I'd argue there's a pretty big gap between Tier 1 and Tier 2 because I don't view the young guys like Metcalf and Lamb as anywhere close to Jefferson or Chase. In fact, based on what we've seen from Lamb – WR22 in 2021 and WR35 in 2020 in PPR points per game – I'd argue he doesn't even belong in this tier. So far in his NFL career, Lamb has gotten a lot of credit for looking the part, but he's been a disappointment for Fantasy. |
| You can find Heath's full WR rankings here. |
| TE Dynasty Tiers |
| Tier 1 |
| Kyle PittsMark Andrews |
| Tier 2 |
| George KittleTravis KelceDarren WallerT.J. Hockenson |
| Just to put things in perspective, Hockenson is the second-youngest player among this group, and he's nearly three-and-a-half years younger than Pitts. Andrews is five full years older than Pitts. Pitts didn't emerge as a Fantasy difference maker as a rookie, but that was mostly due to his one touchdown catch – he was historically productive for a rookie tight end otherwise, let alone one who didn't turn 21 until Week 5. That portends big, big things to come. |
| Which is to say, I think Pitts probably belongs in a tier of his own, and I think he's not far off from Chase and Jefferson as a potential top-five Dynasty asset right now. Pitts looks like he's going to be the king of the tight end position for a long time. |
| You can find Heath's full TE rankings here. |
| |
| | | | | AFC Championship on CBS | | College Basketball on CBS | Two of the NFL's most dynamic quarterbacks Burrow and Mahomes go head-to-head in the AFC Championship! Catch the showdown between the Bengals and the Chiefs on Sunday at 3 PM ET on CBS.
Watch Live
| | Catch back-to-back games starting Saturday at 12:30 PM ET and Sunday tune into #16 Ohio State at #6 Purdue at 12 PM ET! Don't miss any College Basketball action this weekend on CBS.
Watch Live
|
|
| |
| |
