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| | | | Tomorrow, Benedict will show you how to bet on Boeing shares crashing and burning after the next earnings call. | Make sure to sign up ahead of time to get the whole thing. |
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📰 Market Headlines |
| *past 24-hour performance |
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The S&P nearly broke through 5,000 yesterday as markets rallied across the board. Bitcoin is approaching $45k. Democrat Marianne Williamson dropped out of the Presidential race. Lots of Fed speak yesterday: Minneapolis President Kashkari says he only expects 2-3 cuts in 2024. Governor Kugler says she’s not ready to start lowering rates. Boston President Collins said, “I will need to see more evidence before considering adjusting the policy stance.” Richmond Fed President Barkin was more optimistic: “That drumbeat you hear is the soft landing,” but traders need to “[be] patient.” |
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🕶️ Market Vibes |
🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures |
21% of traders STILL think the Fed will cut rates in March. The number on Kalshi is much closer to reality. |
The CME also still shows six full rate cuts in 2024 as the most likely outcome. It’s four on Kalshi. I think 2 - 3 is right. |
Easy money there if you want it [disclosure: I have tiny positions on No rate cuts in March and between one and three rate cuts in 2024.] |
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😱 Fear and Greed Index |
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🧠 What do you think? |
💰 How much gold is in your portfolio? |
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🎤 What you said last time |
The bookies have the 49ers as favorites (thank you), but you guys disagree strongly. Wonder what that’s about? | |
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Chiefs |
“Mahomes’s SB experience will make the difference.” |
“[The Chiefs] just seem very strong. I think the 49ers' luck runs out, but I would prefer to see the 49ers win.” |
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📈 Trends you need to know | Search results are from our friends at Glimpse, my favorite way to spot trends. | |
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Interest in buying gold continues to rise slowly but steadily. It’s most popular in Australia and Singapore. | |
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📊 Stocks |
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Want to invest like Buffet? With Public.com, you can emulate Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio with just a few clicks. |
Winners and losers |
Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions |
Uber posted its first full-year profit in five years, smashed earnings, and beat revenue. Shares are at an all-time high. Alibaba missed on revenue but approved a $25 billion share buyback. Shares down 6.7%. Disney beat tepid earnings estimates thanks to cost-cutting and record theme park revenue but missed revenue slightly. The company “lost 1.3 million core subscribers to its Disney+ streaming service during the quarter, but it made more money from each subscriber due to price hikes for the service. “ Disney will also buy back $3 billion in shares this year and issue a $0.45 dividend in July. Shares up 7%. Brutal earnings report for shipping giant Maersk, which has struggled to navigate the Red Sea crisis. The company guided down significantly for 2024 and suspended its dividend. Shares are down 12%. Roblox beat earnings and revenue and guided higher. Shares jumped 10%. Moody’s downgraded New York Community Bancorp to junk status. |
Market movers |
Disney is buying a $1.5 billion stake in Epic Games (makers of Fortnite). The two companies will partner to produce games based on Disney IP. Sticking with Disney, Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour is coming to Disney+ in March. Snoop is suing Walmart and Post Consumer Brands, saying "Post ensured that Snoop Cereal would not be available to consumers or that it would incur exorbitant costs that would eliminate any profit to Broadus Foods." Layoffs watch: McKinsey is targeting 3,000 layoffs. Tesla, TBD. McDonalds plans to open 1,000 restaurants in China this year. |
Ideas, trends, and analysis |
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📊 Crypto | | Bitcoin is nearing $45k again, while ETH surges toward $2,500. An Australian man says he’s Satoshi. |
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📺 What to Watch Today |
| Americans are missing credit card payments at stunning rate as inflation takes toll |
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That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know. | Cheers, | Wyatt |
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