U.S. Economic Forecast Update || More aggressive Fed rate hikes, moderating economic growth

More aggressive Fed rate hikes, moderating economic growth

*We raise our call for the Fed funds rate to reflect upside inflation risks and growing consensus among FOMC members that aggressive policy rate moves are warranted to tamp down on inflation. We now expect 50bp rate hikes in both May and June, followed by 25bp policy rate increases at the remaining four meetings this year that would lift the Fed funds target range to 2.25 – 2.50% by year-end 2022. We continue to expect a further five 25bp policy rate increases in 2023 and a fed funds rate target range of 3.50 – 3.75% by year-end 2023 and expect the Fed to maintain rates at this range through 2024.

*The surge in headline inflation has eroded real purchasing power and dented business and consumer confidence, which, paired with likely further supply disruptions related to COVID-19 lockdowns in China and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, will weigh on production and economic activity in the near term. We lower our projections for U.S. real GDP growth to 3.2% in 2022. These factors, in addition to tightening financial conditions and fading fiscal impulse, are likely to bring growth closer to potential in the medium term. We now project a modest decline in real GDP growth to 2.5% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024.

Mickey Levy, [email protected]

Mahmoud Abu Ghzalah, [email protected]

© 2022 Berenberg Capital Markets, LLC, Member FINRA and SPIC

Remarks regarding foreign investors. The preparation of this document is subject to regulation by US law. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons, into whose possession this document comes, should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. United Kingdom This document is meant exclusively for institutional investors and market professionals, but not for private customers. It is not for distribution to or the use of private investors or private customers. Copyright BCM is a wholly owned subsidiary of Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG (“Berenberg Bank”). BCM reserves all the rights in this document. No part of the document or its content may be rewritten, copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the BCM’s prior written consent. Berenberg Bank may distribute this commentary on a third party basis to its customers.

Member FINRA & SIPC
This email and any files or attachments transmitted with it may contain confidential or privileged information and are intended solely for the use of the intended recipient. If you are not the intended recipient, please do not copy, retain, disclose or use any part of the message or its attachments. Please notify the sender immediately by return email and destroy or delete any copies. Dissemination or use of this information by anyone other than the intended recipient is unauthorized and may be illegal. Communications by email cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free. Emails and their attachments are subject to being intercepted, becoming corrupted, getting lost or delayed, or may contain viruses. Therefore, neither the sender nor Berenberg Capital Markets LLC (BCM) accepts any liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this message or problems in its transmission, including those arising as a result of its transmission over the internet.
BCM does not assume liability for the correctness and completeness of all information given and/or attachments contained herein. The provided information has not been checked by a third party, especially an independent auditing firm. BCM explicitly points to the stated date of preparation. The information given can become incorrect due to passage of time and/or as a result of legal, political, economic or other changes. BCM does not assume responsibility to indicate such changes and/or to publish an updated document. Any document(s) or attachment(s) is meant exclusively for institutional investors and market professionals, but not for private customers. It is not for distribution to or the use of private investors or private customers.
In light of upcoming regulatory changes, please be informed that BCM will continue to share information with you until [email protected] receives your termination/deletion request. For more information about the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and our privacy policies please refer to https://www.berenberg-us.com/legal-notice. BCM reserves all the rights in this communication. No part of this communication or its content may be rewritten, copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without BCM’s prior written consent.
The information contained herein and sourced may have been adopted from various news sources, for example, Bloomberg, Reuters, Street Account and various other sources. BCM does not claim accuracy, completeness, timeliness, suitability, or otherwise regarding all the information on the securities, stock markets, or developments referred to within. On no account should the Content be regarded as a substitute for the recipient procuring information for himself/herself or exercising his/her own judgments. BCM is not responsible for any recipient(s) use of this information. This Content is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any of the securities contained herein. This information does not constitute a recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this Content is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of securities which may be referred to in this Content and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain securities.