| By Andy Swan Tesla (TSLA) is still massively misunderstood by most of the market. Right now, it’s mainly seen as an automaker with a bit of energy in the mix. Fair enough – that's its current business. But Tesla is gearing up with two massive growth drivers – if either one succeeds, the stock could surge. Our bet? Tesla hits both targets. It’s a binary play, but the potential reward is enormous. Here’s a look at these two major levers: robotaxis and Optimus. Growth Driver No. 1: Robotaxi Dominance Tesla’s venture into autonomous ride-hailing has the potential to reshape its business and the market. ARK Invest projections illustrate this with a range of modeled share price outcomes for Tesla in 2029 based on different scenarios. The chart below uses a Monte Carlo simulation to show how Tesla's valuation could change, factoring in varying degrees of robotaxi adoption and success:
Source: ARK Invest According to ARK Invest,by 2029, robotaxis could account for nearly 90% of Tesla’s enterprise value and earnings. In contrast, electric vehicles might contribute about a quarter of sales and roughly 10% of earnings due to the higher margin potential of robotaxis. The revenue robotaxis could contribute to Tesla’s bottom line should not be overlooked – we’re talking about a fleet that could generate income around the clock. An Increasingly Clear Path Tesla’s timeline for commercialization is aggressive but realistic. ARK simulations include a 95% probability of a robotaxi rollout by 2026. Political changes could smooth the path further. Favorable regulations may lead to streamlined national approvals, removing roadblocks. States like Texas and Arizona, which have fewer restrictions, provide ideal starting points for Tesla’s initial deployment. One analyst put it this way: "In essence, Musk made a strategic and big bet on a Trump White House win that will be known as a ‘bet for the ages’ for TSLA bulls as now Tesla and Musk are set to reap the benefits from a new friendlier regulatory era in the Beltway ahead." Unmatched Scalability One major card Tesla holds in its back pocket is massive scalability – achieved by its infrastructure and 5 million cars already on the road. Since 2012, its Supercharger network has grown from 17 locations in California to over 60,000 worldwide.
Source: Tesla Tesla’s infrastructure has become so dominant, in fact, that auto manufacturers that have been around for a century are waving the white flag – and outfitting their future models with Tesla supercharger adapters. This includes Ford (F) and General Motors (GM), Honda Motor Co. (HMC), Hyundai, Kia, Mazda, all the way to the luxury carmakers like Audi, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz, and even fellow EV specialists Rivian (RIVN) and Lucid (LCID). The list goes on and on. Simply put, Tesla set the standard. Everyone else had to adapt. This infrastructure advantage, combined with billions of autonomous miles driven, gives Tesla a major edge over competitors...
Source: ARK Invest Real-world data continuously refines its self-driving capabilities, improving performance and safety with every mile driven. The takeaway: Tesla’s integrated model – combining software expertise, a massive fleet, and vertical control – sets it apart. The company aims to create an interconnected robotaxi network, seamlessly tied to its app and ecosystem. This approach gives Tesla a lead that is tough to rival. Growth Driver No. 2: Expanding Beyond Vehicles with Optimus If robotaxis fail, consider Optimus. Tesla’s humanoid robot could open entirely new markets and revenue streams. Optimus is designed to handle repetitive, dangerous, or mundane tasks in industries like manufacturing, logistics, and health care. This could drive major productivity gains and cost reductions. Projections from Morgan Stanley released earlier this week highlight Optimus’s potential, estimating that by 2030, Optimus could add $500 billion to Tesla’s value.
The humanoid robotics market may grow faster and become larger than the autonomous vehicle market, with Tesla leading the charge. Optimus leverages Tesla’s AI and Full Self-Driving (FSD) technologies, accelerating its capabilities and market adoption. We’re still in “wait-and-see” mode on this technology – but I certainly wouldn’t bet against it. LikeFolio Data Shows a Real-Time Brand Bump The buzz around Tesla isn’t limited to future opportunities. Its brand continues to capture significant consumer attention – captured by LikeFolio data in real time. Web traffic is accelerating, up 16% year over year on a 30-day moving average, besting major peers including Honda, GM, and Ford.
Bottom line: If Tesla successfully commercializes either robotaxis or Optimus, the impact on its stock will be profound. We see both outcomes as highly achievable, particularly with Elon Musk at the helm. It’s a high-stakes bet with the potential for exceptional returns. Until next time, Andy Swan
Founder, LikeFolio Beyond TSLA: How to Cash in on Musk’s Next Big Bet Tesla isn’t your only opportunity to profit from Musk’s powerhouse ventures. With Trump in the Oval Office, xAI – along with Tesla – could benefit from new tailwinds, thanks to fewer regulatory barriers. And there’s a “backdoor” way you can play it today. Check this out. Discover More Free Insights from Derby City Daily Here’s what you may have missed from Derby City Daily this week… ✓ The Race to $100k Is on: Bitcoin Q&A with Andy Swan ✓ Win the Deregulation Trade with One Pick ✓ 3 Must-See TTD Charts for 2025 and Beyond | 