Tricky Day... Mortgage Rates Fall Significantly, But Not Because of The Fed

There's a distinct risk that, even in the financial community, that people will look back on today's drop in interest rates and conclude it must have something to do with the Federal Reserve's latest policy announcement. After all the Fed did cut its policy rate by 0.25% today, and the Fed was the only big ticket event on the calendar. Unfortunately, almost all of the improvement in rates was in place well before the Fed announcement was released. This isn't a case of financial markets moving into position for an expected outcome either. The Fed's cut was 100% expected, and Fed Chair Powell had nothing too surprising to say (even if the delivery was memorable when he was asked if he'd resign if asked by the president). So why did bonds/rates improve so much? We have to apply the same logic to gains that we've applied to other election related volatility. The election mobilized a massive (and massively volatile) amount of trading positions in the bond market and beyond. We've seen several rate spikes that were just as bad as today's rate drop was good. All we could do with many of those was simply take them in stride and chalk them up to the exceptional volatility and highly charged environment. Today's friendly volatility is a constant invitee to these episodes, even if it feels like it doesn't show up as frequently as other guests. To some extent, this morning's Jobless Claims data may have contributed, but it doesn't make sense to give it too much credit until other data shows similar cause for concern (continuing jobless claims are up to the highest levels in several years).

November 7, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Tricky Day... Mortgage Rates Fall Significantly, But Not Because of The Fed There's a distinct risk that, even in the financial community, that people will look back on today's drop in interest rates and conclude it must have something to do with the Federal Reserve's latest policy announcement. After all the Fed did c... (read more) MBS Commentary Token Resilience After Data. Is The Fed Going to Mention The Election? This morning's only relevant economic data was weekly jobless claims. The headline was right in line with forecasts and the non-adjusted number keeps 2024 right in line with recent years... no trading motivations there. But the continuing... (read more) Rob Chrisman Best Ex, Hiring Risk Mitigation, DPA, Correspondent, Dashboard Tools; MBA Pres. Broeksmit on the Election You knew that Minnesota has 90,000 miles of shoreline, more than California, Florida, and Hawaii combined, right? Here at Servion’s Fusion 24 event in Minneapolis, credit union talk is focused on helping members: “If you want a client for life, ask t... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.98% -0.15% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.98% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.45% -0.10 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.48% -0.14 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.20% -0.05 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.95% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.50% -0.14 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 11/7 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.45% -0.10% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.79% +0.07 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.00% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 11/7 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.73% +0.21 0.69 15 Yr. Fixed 6.27% +0.29 0.77 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.77% +0.04 0.49 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/30 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.51 +0.51 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.51 +0.51 UMBS 6.0 100.99 +0.35 GNMA 5.5 99.92 +0.46 GNMA 6.0 101.01 +0.14 Pricing as of: 11/7 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.3306 -0.1009 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.199 -0.071 5 YR Treasury 4.174 -0.102 7 YR Treasury 4.250 -0.109 10 YR Treasury 4.331 -0.101 30 YR Treasury 4.534 -0.076 Pricing as of: 11/7 5:31PM EST Latest Video Fed Chair Powell: It will take some time before people feel better about th... Powell: We're watching the run up in bond rates, too early to see where the... Election will not change Fed policy in the near term, Powell says Powell: We expect there to be bumps in the economic data Around the Web CNBC Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by a quarter point CNBC Powell says he would not resign as Fed chief if Trump asked for his resignation Marketwatch Trump is not expected to try to fire Fed Chair Powell Marketwatch Jobless claims inch higher in latest week CNBC The Fed is expected to cut interest rates again Thursday. Here's everything you need to know CNBC Mortgage rates surge higher on Trump victory, causing housing stocks to fall Marketwatch Trumps economic team: Who could run Treasury, the Fed and energy in his second term CNBC Fed meeting live updates: Fed expected to cut interest rates by a quarter point CNBC Treasury yields edge lower after sharp rally on Trump victory; investors await Fed decision CNBC House majority still in play as Republicans eye a red sweep Calculated Risk Blog 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October; First Year-over-year Sales Gain Since August 2021 Fannie Mae Consumers Feeling Better About Housing Market Despite High Home Prices Calculated Risk Blog Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

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