Transport Brief - Germany’s target of 15 million EVs – a distant dream?

Germany’s target of 15 million EVs – a distant dream?

By 2030, Germany wants to have 15 million electric vehicles (EVs) on its roads. But at the Munich-based auto show IAA in 2023, the target still looked like a distant dream.

Opening the IAA, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said carmakers and policymakers need to work as a “team” to promote the uptake of electric vehicles and highlighted that he was a “committed member” of this team.

And it’s high time for a team effort. Currently, only 1.2 million EVs are driving on German roads.

Scholz reiterated the government’s goal to increase this number by tenfold by 2030, but experts cast strong doubts on whether it will be reached.

In a market forecast based on current sales and future growth expectations, Stefan Bratzel from the Center of Automotive Management in Bergisch Gladbach expects only eight million EVs on German roads by 2030.

Other, more optimistic forecasts, such as by the German Aerospace Centre, land at 10 to 11 million EVs by 2030, still four to five million below the government targets.

“We have to do a reality check, dear government,” Bratzel told an IAA side-event run by carmaker Ford. “Either we change the goal of the 15 million, or we think of ways of rapidly increasing the ramp-up of electromobility.”

So, what can be done to supercharge the EV uptake?

In his speech, Scholz said it would be the policymakers’ main task to secure sufficient charging infrastructure, for which he wants to oblige petrol station operators to also provide fast-charging stations.

His goal was for EV charging to be “as easy or easier” as refuelling petrol cars – a slogan EU experts will remember well from debates around the Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR).

Another task for policymakers, Scholz said, would be to ensure low electricity prices, which the government wants to do by scaling up wind and solar power. However, so far, the expansion lags far behind the targets envisaged by the government and calls to subsidise prices for large industries could lead to a hike in electricity prices for private consumers.

For his part, Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder, who is campaigning and eager to win car drivers’ votes, criticised Scholz for reducing the subsidy that EV buyers can get.

The bonus for new EVs was reduced in January from €5,000 to €3,000 for cars which cost above €40,000, and from €6,000 to €4,500 for cheaper cars. What is more, since September 2023, commercial buyers no longer get any bonus.

“I think it is wrong that we have reduced the subsidies bit by bit, especially because we are in an international context,” Söder said in his speech right before Scholz. “You can only strengthen your own brands by supporting your own domestic market.”

Experts however question the effectiveness of higher subsidies, as they could also lead to new EVs being re-sold quicker, meaning they wouldn’t help to keep EVs on the road for longer.

Meanwhile, carmakers need to do their part as well, Scholz stressed.

During his tour of the exhibition, Scholz called on carmakers to broaden their offer of cheap EVs, explicitly highlighting Volkswagen (VW) while rebuking luxury brands like Mercedes-Benz.

He was “particularly looking forward” to VW’s exhibition stand, Scholz said, “because the point is that we are not only showing electric mobility with vehicles that are great but cost a bit more but also with other vehicles that many can afford.”

And for this goal to be met, Scholz is also willing to bet on Chinese manufacturers, which have started to offer EVs in Europe (with, however, much higher prices than in their home market).

“Fair competition stimulates business. It is in the interest of consumers,” he stressed.

The message to German carmakers, who have so far focused on pricier EVs with higher profit margins, was clear:

Build cheap EVs now, or lose against the Chinese – the government will not protect you.

– Jonathan Packroff

Cities across Europe prepare to celebrate clean transport

This Saturday (16 September) sees the start of European Mobility Week, the annual EU campaign encouraging people to choose walking, cycling and public transport over more polluting transport methods.

Unlike many EU initiatives, the campaign is not restricted to a dull convention centre in Brussels. Rather, Mobility Week is decentralised, with urban areas from across Europe able to take part.

Already over 1,800 towns and cities from 39 countries have registered, with many more expected to do so in the coming days. In 2022, almost 3,000 towns and cities from 51 countries participated.

Registered cities commit to doing at least one of the following during the week: organising activities celebrating sustainable mobility, implementing permanent measures that encourage a shift to cleaner forms of transport, and holding a car-free day event in which one or more streets are closed to traffic.

It is not necessary to do all three, but some of the more ambitious cities do so.

Indeed, the degree to which cities embrace the spirit of European Mobility Week is really down to the local governments themselves.

Some cities organise a slew of creative events that showcase the environmental and health benefits of active mobility: games, concerts, and exhibitions.

In other cities, you would be forgiven for not realising the city is celebrating Mobility Week at all.

Readers are encouraged to see if your city has registered and to find out what they have planned. Is your city a mobility week luminary or laggard?

The week culminates in the car-free day, in which space is taken from cars and given to pedestrians and cyclists (and perhaps e-scooters, depending on where your city stands on them), at least temporarily.

In Brussels, the car-free day has become a real day of celebration. The city has historically closed large swathes of the road network to traffic and encouraged people to use the space as they please – an impressive feat politically given the heated culture war that has emerged around restricting drivers.

In encouraging people to see how much more pleasant their city is during the car-free day – quieter, less dangerous, with cleaner air – the European Commission seems content to wade into the argument, coming down firmly on the side of cyclists and pedestrians.

Each year, European Mobility Week is celebrated under a different theme, with this year’s being the rather austere “Save Energy”.

It reminds Europeans that the best way to wean ourselves off of Russian oil is to reduce oil consumption in general – hopping onto your pedal-powered bicycle rather than into the driver’s seat of your combustion engine SUV helps in this regard.

For those in the European capital, a launch event will be held on Sunday (17 September), the day on which Brussels celebrates its car-free day.

Speakers from the European Commission and the city will discuss sustainable mobility and look at how we will be getting from A to B in the future (plus I understand there will be a free breakfast).

The event is open to the public and registration can be done online.

– Sean Goulding Carroll

A roundup of the most captivating transport news
Scholz praises individual mobility at German car show

Faced with growing environmental criticism, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz defended individual mobility as a great social achievement and called upon carmakers to make electric vehicles available for all.

EU under pressure to tackle fraudulent biofuels imports

The delay in implementing a tool to protect the EU market against fraudulent biofuels imports has been heavily criticised by European biofuel producers, who point the finger at the European Commission.

France to launch rail pass similar to Germany

France will introduce a rail pass similar to the one recently introduced in neighbouring Germany, French Transport Minister Clément Beaune announced on Thursday, in a bid to encourage the French to use trains, which are often bemoaned as an expensive way to travel.

Improving air quality is also a regional task

To protect the health of EU citizens, the European Commission has proposed new limits for air pollutants. To improve air quality, a lot can and should be done on a regional level too, writes Winfried Hermann, transport minister of Baden-Württemberg.

Ryanair boss gets pied in Brussels

Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary got a rude welcome in Brussels on Thursday (7 September) when he received two cream pies to the face while standing next to a cardboard cutout of EU chief Ursula von der Leyen.

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic]

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