| | | | Wednesday, November 10, 2021 | | The last week or so have seen a huge volume of news around the NFL, and Tuesday was no different. We'll have a full rundown of all the injuries you need to watch out for in Week 10 in Thursday's newsletter, but Tuesday brought news about a few of the NFL's elite running backs that could potentially put their availability in question for Week 10. | | We have more concrete details on Nick Chubb, so we'll start with him. He tested positive for COVID-19 Tuesday and was placed on the reserve list, putting his status for Week 10 in doubt. He could be cleared to play with two negative tests at least 24 hours apart because Chubb is vaccinated, but as we saw with Davante Adams last week, that's no guarantee. In fact, it seems like the majority of positive COVID cases this season have seen a player miss at least one game due to the protocols, so that should be the expectation here. That puts D'Ernest Johnson back in the Fantasy conversation and probably makes him a must-start RB for Week 10 if Chubb is out as I wrote in my Week 10 RB rankings piece, even against a tough Patriots defense. | | Additionally, we learned Tuesday afternoon that Alvin Kamara is in question for Week 10 with an as-yet undisclosed injury. The Saints had three running backs in for tryouts and signed Josh Adams on Tuesday, with New Orleans.Football's Nick Underhill reporting Kamara "might have gotten a little banged up Sunday." We don't know anything more than that as of this point, but we should get more details Wednesday when the Saints open practice. Mark Ingram might have gone unclaimed in your league last night, so consider adding him if he's available, just in case. He would likely be a top-24 RB if Kamara were out for this week's game against the Titans. | | Additionally, we learned about some very serious allegations regarding Dalvin Cook on Tuesday. Cook has been accused of physical and emotional abuse in a lawsuit filed by his ex-girlfriend Tuesday, alleging assault, battery, and false imprisonment. Cook's attorney released a statement saying Cook was defending himself during the incident in question. The Vikings released a statement Tuesday evening saying they immediately notified the NFL about the lawsuit and are "in the process of gathering more information." The league will likely allow the legal process to play out before stepping in, but he could eventually face suspension through the league's personal conduct policy. Obviously, this story is more serious than whatever Fantasy ramifications might come as a result of it, so there's no point in speculating on that at this point. | | So there's a lot to keep track of in the news this week before injury reports are even out there, which we'll follow up on tomorrow. In the rest of today's newsletter, I've got three players I'm looking to buy heading into Week 10 and three I'm looking to sell, plus a look at every position with Heath Cummings' position previews. You can see a list of all the injuries we're watching for each position there, along with our consensus expert top 12, matchup notes, numbers to know, and more. And, as always, if you have any questions about trades, your lineup, or anything else, send them my way at [email protected] with the subject line "#AskFFT" to get included in a mailbag column tomorrow. | | I've also got my rankings for each position available below, updated with some of my thoughts on some of the most interesting players and decisions of the week here: | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings
| | Hopefully, that helps you get an understanding of what to expect for this week. Here's what the rest of today's newsletter has in store to help you get ready for Week 10: | | đWeek 10 Stock WatchđđPosition Previews | | | | đWeek 10 Stock Watchđ | | | | Trade deadlines are fast approaching, which means your opportunities to remake your roster for a playoff are running out. Make sure you've got your bearings before you go make offers with the help of Dave Richard's Trade Values Chart, and here are three players whose stock I'm buying and three I'm selling ahead of Week 10. | | Three to buy | | Here are three players I'm buying into moving forward. Things are only going to get better from here. | | Buy High | | You don't always have to sell high or buy low. Sometimes a hot start is just the beginning of something big, and there's value in trying to buy those situations before their perceived value catches up. | | James Conner -- I had Conner as a sell-high last week, so there's no way you can accuse me of take lock. The thing is, before Week 9, Conner was a touchdown-dependent RB in a timeshare with a limited passing game role. Can you accuse me of not accounting for the possibility of a Chase Edmonds injury opening up this kind of role? Well, sure -- the injury happened, after all. But I stand by the process at both points. Conner basically only had one path to a hugely valuable Fantasy role, but that path opened up. It would be silly to ignore it. The Cardinals have produced a ton of points for running backs over the past two seasons, and now Conner has an extended opportunity -- perhaps all the way up to and through the start of the Fantasy playoffs -- where he should see a significant majority of those points. This lined up perfectly for him. | | Buy low | | But if you do want to buy low, here are a couple of players I think have seen their worst days already: | D.J. Moore -- When it comes to Sam Darnold, "things can't get worse" have been famous last words for Fantasy players. But I mean it when I say that things can only get better for the Panthers offense moving forward. Whether that means Darnold starts to play better or P.J. Walker plays better in his stead -- Darnold is in doubt for Week 10 with a shoulder injury -- I have faith. To put in perspective just how bad Darnold has been over the past five games, his 4.98 yards per attempt, 1.3% touchdown rate, and 5% interception rate would rank 372nd, 371st, and 370th among 373 QBs with at least 160 pass attempts over the past decade. Given that context, Moore looks like Jerry Rice with his 10.1 PPR points per game. I'm buying Moore, because if he gets just run-of-the-mill bad QB play moving forward instead of "maybe the worst QB ever" play, he'll probably be a top 15 WR.
Jalen Hurts -- The Eagles needed to run the ball more than they did early in the season, but they've taken that to an extreme over the past two weeks, with a pass or a sack on just 28.6% of their snaps in Weeks 8 and 9. For context, the lowest rate in the NFL this season belongs to the Bears at 49.8%. I can buy the Eagles being more run-heavy than your average team moving forward, but Hurts is going to get back to around 30 pass attempts per game moving forward, and he'll likely keep rushing for 60 or so yards per game, which he's done since being named the starter last season. The Eagles have stumbled on a better formula, but Hurts is still going to be a must-start Fantasy QB moving forward.
| | | | Three to sell | | Sell high | | I'm not saying these guys won't be useful or good moving forward, but I think you can probably get more in return for them than you're likely to get from them: | | Jonathan Taylor -- I'm old enough to remember when people were disappointed in Taylor, all the way back in the fuzzy past of ... Week 3. In six games since, Taylor is averaging 25.7 PPR points per game. That's Christian McCaffrey territory. However, he's averaging 1.36 Fantasy points per touch in that stretch; the best McCaffrey has ever averaged was 1.17 per touch, and that's with a massive passing game role. Derrick Henry has never averaged more than .82 points per touch, and Taylor averaged .95 last season. This is all a lot of words to say that Taylor isn't going to keep this up. He's an awesome player, but he doesn't have the passing game role of a McCaffrey nor the huge workload Henry has had. He'll be a top 12, and possibly a top-six RB in PPR moving forward, but I get the feeling folks might be viewing him as the RB1, and he won't be that. Chris Godwin -- The good news for Godwin is, we don't know when Antonio Brown is going to be back from his ankle injury. But we do know he'll be back at some point -- the Buccaneers would've put him on IR if he wasn't, right? Godwin is an amazing player, but he's been pretty reliant on Brown being out this season -- he's averaged 14.7 PPR points per game with Brown active compared to 26.6 with Brown out. Want to expand the sample size? Since the start of 2020, Godwin is at 15.4 per game with Brown and 20.7 without him. If you want to wait a week and let him have another big game without Brown, that makes sense, but Godwin is going to return to the WR2 range eventually. | | Sell low | | Sometimes, getting off a sinking ship is better than hoping they'll be able to fix the breach in the hull. I'm willing to sell here based on name value: | | Antonio Gibson -- I kind of just want to get out of the weekly headache of figuring out what to do with Gibson -- and I did so recently moving him and Noah Fant for Saquon Barkley in a deal two weeks ago that really hasn't helped either team so far but which I'm still happy about long term. The thing with Gibson is, even if he didn't have this lingering shin injury, I'm not sure I'd be thrilled about starting him week in and week out. Gibson's role in the passing game hasn't expanded the way we hoped, and while that was fine last season when the Football Team's defense was letting them keep games close, that hasn't been the case this season. Gibson is a game-script dependent back who basically never sees the field on third downs or in hurry-up offense situations, and a bad team is just about the last place you want a guy like that to be. Add in that rookie Jaret Patterson saw a role for the first time in Week 8, and this could be an especially bad situation for Gibson. Maybe he'll come out of the bye healthy and Washington's defense will keep them in more games, but the upcoming schedule doesn't bode well, as they open against the Buccaneers and have the Seahawks, Raiders, and Cowboys in three of the next four games. | | đWeek 10 Position Previews | | Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Here's a brief rundown of each position, along with some key details you need to know about and our expert consensus top-12 rankings before you go read Heath's full breakdowns: | | QB Preview | | | | Injuries: Kyler Murray (ankle), Aaron Rodgers (illness), Russell Wilson (finger), Tua Tagovailoa (finger), Trevor Lawrence (ankle), Sam Darnold (shoulder), Mike White (forearm), Zach Wilson (knee), and Ryan Fitzpatrick (hip)On a bye: Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones, Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor Number to know: 6 -- Patrick Mahomes has been below 6 yards per attempt in his past three games. He only had two such games in his career entering this season.Matchup that matters: Derek Carr vs. KC (30th in points allowed to QB)Top streamer: "Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater has been a high-end No. 2 quarterback and I don't hate this matchup stylistically for him. There's not a streamer I really want to start over a typical starter, so this is more of a bye-week or injury replacement." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Lamar JacksonTom BradyJosh AllenMatthew StaffordJustin HerbertDak PrescottPatrick MahomesAaron Rodgers Carson WentzRussell WilsonMatt RyanKyler Murray | | | | RB Preview | | | Injuries: Nick Chubb (illness), Demetic Felton (illness), Damien Harris (head), Rhamondre Stevenson (head), Chase Edmonds (ankle), Zack Moss (head), Saquon Barkley (ankle), Devontae Booker (hip), Derrick Henry (foot), James Robinson (heel), Miles Sanders (ankle), Kareem Hunt (calf), Chris Carson (neck), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (knee), Jamaal Williams (thigh), Latavius Murray (ankle), Malcolm Brown (quad), Damien Williams (knee), Justin Jackson (quad) and Tevin Coleman (hamstring) On a bye: Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine, David Montgomery, Khalil Herbert, David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, Saquon Barkley and Devontae Booker
Number to know: 15.4 -- The Buccaneers are surrendering 15.4 PPR Fantasy points per game to running backs on passing plays alone. That bodes well for McKissic.Matchup that matters: Michael Carte vs. BUF (1st in points allowed to RB)Stash: "D'Onta Foreman. Foreman could easily supplant Adrian Peterson as the main early downs back." Top DFS play: "James Conner. There was just no way they were going to raise Conner's price enough in his first game as the feature back. He may be $1,000 more by the time we get to Week 11." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Jonathan TaylorChristian McCaffreyNajee HarrisAustin EkelerDalvin CookJames ConnerAlvin KamaraEzekiel ElliottAaron Jones D'Andre SwiftCordarrelle PattersonJames Robinson | | WR Preview | | | | Injuries: DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring), Chase Claypool (undisclosed), Calvin Ridley (personal), Antonio Brown (ankle), Corey Davis (hip), Sterling Shepard (hamstring), T.Y. Hilton (concussion), Sammy Watkins (hamstring), DeVante Parker (shoulder), Will Fuller (finger), Curtis Samuel (groin), Michael Gallup (calf) and A.J. Green (illness) On a bye: Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney, Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney and Brandin Cooks Number to know: 24.1 -- The Bills have held opposing wide receivers to 24.1 PPR Fantasy points per game, by far the best mark in the league. You should add Elijah Moore, but you should not be starting him.Matchup that matters: Jaylen Waddle vs. BAL (6th in points allowed to WR) Stash: "Elijah Moore. If you don't need a receiver for Week 10, Moore would be my second favorite add behind only Brandon Aiyuk." Top DFS play: "Chris Godwin. We expect the Buccaneers will again be without Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. Godwin has seen 23 targets and scored 53.1 PPR Fantasy points in his past two games. The Washington secondary is not going to slow him down." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Cooper KuppDavante AdamsTyreek HillMarquise BrownKeenan AllenMike EvansJustin JeffersonDK Metcalf Chris GodwinCordarrelle PattersonDiontae JohnsonA.J. Brown | | TE Preview | | | Injuries to know: Rob Gronkowski (back), Noah Fant (illness), Dawson Knox (hand), Jonnu Smith (shoulder) and Logan Thomas (hamstring)On a bye: C.J. Uzomah, Cole Kmet, Evan Engram and Jordan Akins Number to know: 48.5 -- Pat Freiermuth has scored 48.5 PPR points since Week 6. That makes him TE3, and he had his bye in that stretch.
Matchup that matters: Kyle Pitts @DAL (19th in points allowed to TE)Streamer: "Dan Arnold. Arnold leads the Jaguars in target share over the past four weeks and has at least 10 PPR Fantasy points in three of those four games despite the fact that he hasn't reached the end zone. Arnold may be even better moving forward." Top DFS play: "Pat Freiermuth. Freiermuth's explosion came on Monday night, so his Week 10 price is unaffected. He's been similar to Arnold the past three weeks except he's scored three touchdowns, which is a pretty big difference. There should be plenty of red zone opportunities against the Lions." | | Consensus Expert Top 12 | | Travis KelceDarren WallerMark AndrewsGeorge KittleKyle PittsT.J. HockensonDallas GoedertMike Gesicki Pat FreiermuthDalton SchultzDan ArnoldZach Ertz | | | | | | | | Drop In. Ride On. | | Texas 6 on Paramount+ | Tune into PBR RIDEPASS, exclusively on Pluto TV. Download the Pluto TV app to watch thrilling western sports, plus over 200 channels of movies, TV shows, news, sports and more, all 100% free.
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