| | | | Friday, November 4, 2022 | | The wide receiver position took another couple of hits Thursday, as we learned Rashod Bateman (foot) and Michael Thomas (toe) will undergo surgery and are likely out for the season. It's a disappointing outcome for both -- Bateman for derailing what we hoped would be a breakout season, Thomas for playing just three games in his return from missing most of the previous two seasons with ankle injuries. | | Bateman is, at least, still young enough that he'll be worth drafting next season in the later rounds in the hopes he can stay healthy and live up to his first-round billing, but Thomas might just be done as a Fantasy contributor -- he'll be 30 next season with three consecutive lost seasons due to foot/ankle injuries. He was one of the best players in Fantasy at his peak -- he set the single-season catch record in 2019! -- but has just 56 catches over the past three seasons. | | The Saints at least have Chris Olave, who looks like a superstar in the making, plus Jarvis Landry, who returned to practice Thursday and could be a solid WR3 for Fantasy if he gets healthy. The Ravens have Devin Duvernay, who is probably overmatched as a top option, which means they'll have to lean on Mark Andrews even more. And hey, maybe we'll see more of promising rookie Isaiah Likely after his breakout Week 8. Lamar Jackson could use the help. | | Those injury situations are, at least, settled now, but we've got plenty of other questions heading into the weekend of Week 9, and today's newsletter has the latest on everything you need to know about with my Week 9 Game Previews. But, if, after reading, you have other lineup questions or need more help, send your emails my way at [email protected] with the subject line "#AskFFT" and I'll try to answer them before Sunday morning's lineup locks. Plus, you can catch our YouTube stream Sunday morning at 11:30 a.m. ET where Adam Aizer, Frankl Stampfl and I will be answering all of your lineup questions. | | Get ready for Week 9 with all of our preview content here: | | Week 9 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: QB | RB | WRStarts, sits and sleepers for every gameCheat Sheets: PPR | Non-PPRWeek 9 Position Previews: QB | RB | WR | TEWeek 9 Rankings: Jamey | Dave | Heath My rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | | And here's what the rest of today's newsletter has in store to help you get ready for Week 9: | | đTNF Fantasy Recap: Eagles 29, Texans 17đWeek 9 Game Previews: Injury updates and lineup dilemmas | | | | đTNF Recap: Eagles 29, Texans 17 | | | Winner: Miles Sanders. Fantasy Football is hard enough when we're trying to make decisions based on skill, talent, and matchups. But what makes it especially hard is that we also have to account for unknowable human factors like a coach's decision making. Last season, Miles Sanders was a middling-to-bad Fantasy option because the Eagles just didn't really trust him near the end zone, and he ended up with just 10 of the team's 52 touches inside the 10-yard line in the games he plays. This season, he's gotten 14 of 39 -- up from 19.2% to 35.9%. That doesn't explain all of the change in Sanders' value -- he had bad luck last season and is probably running hot in that regard right now -- but the fact is, the Eagles are giving him more opportunities than they did last season, and he's giving them no reason not to keep doing so. He's still pretty TD-dependent, but he's getting them, so who can complain?
Loser: DeVonta Smith . That's two duds in a row for Smith and four in eight games with fewer than 8 PPR points. In his other four games? 15, 30.9, 18.7, and 15.4. He's the No. 2 option in an offense that throws the ball a decent amount, but not a ton, with two other high-end playmakers in the passing game, so inconsistency might just be the defining feature of his game. In today's FFT in 5, Adam Aizer called Smith a buy-low candidate, and I agree with that call, but you may just have to live with the up-and-down nature of his skill set and usage. One more thing: Dameon Pierce looked excellent again this week, as he has done for much of his increasingly impressive rookie season. 139 yards on 27 carries against a team that knew the Texans had little hope of moving the ball if they weren't running it effectively is incredibly impressive, and my skepticism about him as a player looks pretty wrong. But as a Fantasy player? Well, it kinda looks right. As good as he was Thursday night, he had 13.9 PPR points -- a fine total, enough to make him a low-to-mid range RB2 most weeks. And that's what he's mostly been for his rookie season, with the exception being a three-game stretch where he found the the end zone each week. Pierce is worth starting most weeks, but he'll probably keep being a "better in real life than Fantasy" guy until the Texans put a better team around him. | | | | đWeek 9 Game Previews | | There's something to watch in every game on the NFL schedule every week, even if you have to squint to see it sometimes. Here's a look ahead at every Week 9 game, with some notes on what Vegas is expecting to see, some lineup help and the latest injury updates from around the league: | | | | All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook. | | Chargers at Falcons | | Sunday, 1 p.m. ETLine: Chargers -3; 49.5 O/U Implied totals: Chargers 26.25, Falcons 23.25 | | We've got strength vs. weakness in this one, as the Falcons have been miserable against quarterbacks while the Chargers have continued to struggle stopping the run this season. The problem? Justin Herbert is likely playing without his top two wide receivers, while the Falcons have a consistent running back rotation, with both Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley splitting work even if Cordarrelle Patterson isn't cleared to return. It's a lot easier to trust the Chargers options here. | | Toughest lineup decision: Justin Herbert -- Start. It looks like Herbert will be playing without his top two wide receivers, and that's no small thing. Herbert's play has notably suffered this season, with his lowest yards per attempt and touchdown rate of his career, and playing without Allen for all but two halves of football has surely played a part in that. He very well could struggle in this one too; however, the Falcons have been just about the best matchup in football for QBs in Fantasy, so I just can't bring myself to sit Herbert -- especially in a week with so many QBs on bye and so many other purportedly high-end options similarly struggling. Do you really even feel that much better about Lamar Jackson right now? Injuries: Austin Ekeler (abdomen) -- Ekeler was added to the injury report as a limited participant Thursday, and the mid-week addition to the injury report usually isn't a good thing. However, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport did say Thursday that it "sounds like [the Chargers are] just being cautious" with Ekeler, so hopefully there's nothing to be concerned about. If Sony Michel is available in your league, you might want to add him just in case ... Mike Williams (ankle) and Keenan Allen (hamstring) -- Neither practiced so far this week and it looks like both will be out. Josh Palmer is a top-24 WR if both are out, and Gerald Everett is a top-six tight end. | | Dolphins at Bears | | Sunday, 1 p.m. ETLine: Dolphins -5; 46 O/UImplied totals: Dolphins 25.5, Bears 20.5 | | Bears opponents average around 60.4 plays per game, which is the 10th-lowest mark in the league. Thar's not an accident, as this Bears team wants to limit possessions and control the clock. The problem is, this Dolphins team has little trouble putting up points in a hurry, which is where the Bears' game plan can get a little out of whack. The Bears have been a little more comfortable drawing up pass plays lately, but I could see them going even heavier than usual on the run to try to keep Miami off the field. | Toughest lineup decision: David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert -- Start... I guess. I don't necessarily hate starting either Herbert or Montgomery, and they're both top-24 running backs for me. However, that's mostly because of the bye weeks, and I'd be starting the likes of D'Onta Foreman and Antonio Gibson ahead of them. Herbert's Week 8 was great, because he ran the ball efficiently and scored a touchdown, but he didn't have a catch and played just 28% of the snaps. Montgomery is the lead back, but that meant just 10.5 PPR points last week. In either case, you're looking for a touchdown from either to feel good about starting them, and which one has a better chance seems pretty random. As RB2s, they're fine, but I hope I have better options. Injuries: It looks like there are no injuries to worry about for this one, thankfully.
| | | | Panthers at Bengals | | Sunday, 1 p.m. ETLine: Bengals -7; 42.5 O/UImplied totals: Bengals 24.75, Panthers 17.75 | | The Bengals offense looked awful last week, its first game without Ja'Marr Chase, and I'm not willing to write it off entirely as a one-game fluke. That's not to say this offense is going to be a disaster moving forward, but the Bengals struggled early this season when defenses took Chase and the big play away, and now they have to figure out life without him for at least a few more games. It could continue to be tough for them, and this Panthers defense is not a pushover. | | Toughest lineup decision: Joe Burrow -- Start. Of course, to be clear, I'm not sitting Burrow. In fact, it's a pretty easy call for me -- he's still a top-eight QB for me. In fact, I'm pretty much starting all of the relevant players in this one -- Joe Mixon is a top-six RB for me, D'Onta Forman is top-20, and D.J. Moore, Tyler Boyd , and Tee Higgins are all top-24 WRs. Hopefully this one isn't low-scoring. Injuries: Chuba Hubbard (ankle) -- Hubbard has been limited both days so far this week, so it looks like he's at least got a chance to play. We're expecting him to, though what will be interesting to see is how the Panthers use their backs. Hubbard was the pretty clear lead back in Week 7, but Foreman was so good in Week 8 that I have to assume the scales will tip in his favor at least a little bit. If I have to use one, Foreman is my preference. | | Packers at Lions | | Sunday, 1 p.m. ETLine: Packers -3.5; 49.5 O/UImplied totals: Packers 26.5, Lions 23 | | The Packers rank 26th in scoring, but there was an interesting piece from the Packers SB Nation site Acme Packing Company this week detailing the Packers' almost unfathomable bad fortunes on fourth down and with fumbles -- they are 2 for 11 on fourth down, with the average drive ending on fourth down traveling 44.7 yards (their average drive overall is 31.3 yards). The Packers are moving the ball well enough, ranking 18th in yards per play -- not elite, sure, but not disastrous. but they've scored on a truly disastrous 27.6% of their drives, the third-lowest mark in the NFL. The Lions, of course, allow opponents to score on 47.3% of their drives, the highest rate in the NFL. This could be a turnaround week for the Packers. | Toughest lineup decision: D'Andre Swift. -- Start. One of the most alarming quotes of the week came from Lions coach Dan Campbell, when he said, "We probably gave Swift one too many carries." Swift had five carries Sunday. He clearly isn't 100%, and I'm not sure when he's going to be. It's concerning, to be sure, and I don't think you can really rely on Swift getting more than 10 or so touches again. He's such a dynamic playmaker that I'll probably still start him, because he's the kind of player who can make it worth it with one play, but I would start Antonio Gibson and Raheem Mostert over him, among others. Injuries: D'Andre Swift (ankle/shoulder) -- Swift got back out there Thursday on a limited basis, and we're assuming he'll play through the injury, but will probably be a bit limited like last week ... Josh Reynolds (back) -- Reynolds was limited in Wednesday before being held out Thursday, which says that there's definitely some concern here about his availability. Reynolds could be a viable WR3 option with T.J. Hockenson out of the picture, but this injury makes it tough to trust him ... Allen Lazard (shoulder) -- Lazard has been limited both days this week, and it looks like he'll have a chance to play. He remains a touchdown-dependent WR2/3 if he's healthy, but with some added risk from the injury.
| | Colts at Patriots | | Sunday, 1 p.m. ETLine: Patriots -5.5; 40 O/UImplied totals: Patriots 22.75, Colts 17.25 | | I was surprised to see the Colts not use Sam Ehlinger's mobility more last week, and I'm not sure there's much hope for this offense if they aren't going to be more imaginative. With Jonathan Taylor dealing with that ankle injury, I'm definitely concerned that this offense is really going to struggle to do much, especially against a very good Patriots defense. | | Toughest lineup decision: Deon Jackson -- Start (if Jonathan Taylor is out). If Taylor is out this week, I'm not expecting a repeat of Jackson's 10-catch performance in Week 6, because that was more about Matt Ryan 's struggles than anything Jackson does. Still, he played 58% and 67% of the snaps in the two games Taylor missed -- the latter coming despite Jackson leaving the game with an injury. That kind of usage is going to make Jackson worth starting, albeit in that low-end RB2 kind of way I turned my nose up at with Montgomery and Herbert and the like. It's not an exciting profile, but it should be a useful one. Injuries: Jonathan Taylor (ankle) -- Taylor suffered a recurrence of his lingering ankle injury in Week 8 and has now missed both days of practice so far. There's a real chance he isn't ready to play this week, and could be limited even if he does. If Taylor is active, you're probably starting him, but he'd be more in the 12-15 range for me than the top-five ranking he's had every other week ... Damien Harris (illness) -- Harris wasn't at practice Thursday due to an illness, and while that usually doesn't lead to absences, we've seen a few this season, so you can't ignore it entirely. Rhamondre Stevenson is a top-12 RB for me at this point either way, but he's probably top-five if Harris is out. | | Bills at Jets | | Sunday, 1 p.m. ETLine: Bills -11.5; 46 O/UImplied totals: Bills 28.75, Jets 17.25 | | Zach Wilson might be 4-1 as a starter this season, but it's pretty much impossible to argue that isn't in spite of him, not because of him. Wilson has the highest bad-throw rate in the league, per Pro Football Focus, and the Jets aren't doing him any favors with whatever they're doing with Elijah Moore since his trade request. Wilson is still young enough that it's too early to write him off entirely, but this one could get pretty ugly pretty quickly if he doesn't play dramatically better than he has so far. | Toughest lineup decision: Devin Singletary -- Sit. I don't know how much Nyheim Hines is going to play in his first game with the Bills, but his presence probably doesn't mean much good for Singletary, who has just two games with more than 11 carries. Now, if you want to have the glass half-full, both came in the past two weeks, but even then, he's accounted for just 15.2 Fantasy points on the ground in those two games. Whatever upside Singletary has been able to tap into this season has come in the passing game, and that's where we expect to see Hines really cut into Singletary's role. You're probably hoping Singletary falls into the end zone if you're starting him the rest of the way. On a team with just 13 RB rushing touchdowns in 24 games since the start of 2021, that's not a great bet. Injuries: Corey Davis (knee) -- Davis has yet to practice this week and seems unlikely to make his return. We thought that would mean more opportunities for Elijah Moore last week, but he barely played. Garrett Wilson did turn in a strong game, though on a disappointingly low 17% target share, so it's hard to argue he's a must-start option or anything.
| | Vikings at Commanders | | Sunday, 1 p.m. ETLine: Vikings -3; 43.5 O/UImplied totals: Vikings 23.25, Commanders 20.25 | | The Commanders have gone 2-0 since Taylor Heinicke took over at QB, with wins over two teams we expected to be playoff contenders in the Packers and Colts. Of course, neither of those teams has been as good as expected so far, so I'm not sure how impressive these two close wins really are. This should be a pretty good test of what we can expect from them against tougher teams. | Toughest lineup decision: T.J. Hockenson -- Start. The Vikings lost Irv Smith to an ankle injury last week and took a big swing in trading for T.J. Hockenson at the deadline. Hockenson has never quite lived up to his No. 8 overall pick pedigree, but he's still a pretty good playmaker, as he's shown with a handful of massive plays this season that have helped his efficiency spike to career-best levels. Playing in a better offense, with less defensive attention, Hockenson could sustain that improved efficiency, and even in a week where he's working in with a new team, I think you probably need to just keep him in the lineup. Injuries: J.D. McKissic (neck) -- I've already got Antonio Gibson as a top-20 RB for this week, but if McKissic is out, Gibson becomes an even better start. He's already splitting the difference between Brian Robinson's early-down usage and McKissic's passing game role, but if Gibson takes on all of the passing downs, he could be a must-start back. Gibson and McKissic are averaging 9.4 targets per game between them, and while I wouldn't expect all of them to go to Gibson if McKissic is out, he should be very involved.
| | Raiders at Jaguars | | Sunday, 1 p.m. ETLine: Raiders -1.5; 48 O/UImplied totals: Raiders 24.75, Jaguars 23.25 | | In games decided by eight points or fewer, these two teams are a combined 0-10, which is incredible -- even bad teams tend to win much closer to half of their close games than, well, none. It's not just bad luck, of course -- Derek Carr has taken a significant step back this season, while Trevor Lawrence has fallen back on his rookie season turnover-prone ways after a hot start. There's no shortage of offensive talent on either of these teams, and this one could fairly easily turn into a fun shootout, but Carr and Lawrence will both have to play better. | | Toughest lineup decision: Derek Carr - Start. There really aren't many fringe options on these two teams, but I think both quarterbacks count. I've got Carr ranked a little bit higher than Lawrence, mostly because I just have to believe at some point he and Davante Adams are going to get on the same page and start rolling. Hopefully the illness that limited Adams last week is behind him, and I'm viewing Carr as a low-end starter this week -- and a buy-low candidate for the rest of the season. Injuries: Darren Waller (hamstring) -- Waller has been limited both days this week, but he was also limited all of last week and wasn't able to play, so there's no guarantees here. If he plays, I'll start him as a low-end TE1, but there's definitely some risk of him either being limited or suffering a setback, given the lingering nature of this injury. | | Seahawks at Cardinals | | Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ETLine: Cardinals -2; 49.5 O/UImplied totals: Cardinals 25.75, Seahawks 23.75 | | The Cardinals don't have a great defense, or even an average one, but they're one of the only teams to figure out how to slow this Seahawks offense down this season. DK Metcalf hasn't had more than 10.8 PPR points in any of his past three games against them, so this isn't just a one-season thing. The Cardinals are pretty good against wide receivers overall, allowing just the 19th-most PPR points per game to them, but I can't say I'm avoiding the Seahawks passcatchers against the 30th-ranked defense overall. | | Toughest lineup decision: James Conner -- Start. Conner is very much up in the air at this point, having gotten two limited practices in Wednesday and Thursday. It looks like he's inching toward a return, and if he does, he'll probably be back in my lineups this week. Conner may be somewhat limited, but with DeAndre Hopkins back, this offense looks a lot more like what we expected it to, and the running backs in this offense have generally been pretty good when they're rolling, especially Conner. Hopefully he's able to get back out there. Injuries: James Conner (ribs) -- Conner has been limited both days so far this week, but he's been held out after being limited before, so this one may go down to the wire Sunday. | | Rams at Buccaneers | | Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ETLine: Buccaneers -3; 42.5 O/UImplied totals: Buccaneers 22.75, Rams 19.75 | | When they drew up the schedule, they probably weren't expecting these two teams to be a combined three games under .500 by this point while ranking in the bottom 10 in points per game, but that's the reality we're facing. These offenses have fallen apart for different reasons -- the Buccaneers offensive line hasn't been nearly as good, and Tom Brady has struggled as a result, while the Rams issue is more about a lack of playmaking outside of Cooper Kupp. I have more faith in the Buccaneers figuring things out, for what it's worth. | Toughest lineup decision: Any Rams running backs -- Sit. Last week, the Rams played three different running backs at least 22% of the snaps, and now we've got the potential return of Cam Akers from his banishment to account for. For his part, Akers told reporters Thursday he never asked for a trade, and he was a full participant in practice Thursday in his return. Whether he'll be active after being held out the past few games remains to be seen, but Ian Rapoport reports this week there's a "real possibility" he could play. This team has produced the fewer points for an RB in PPR scoring so far this season, and it's sure to be a committee whether Akers plays or not, so it's probably best to just avoid this one.Injuries: Cooper Kupp (ankle) -- Kupp got in a limited session Thursday and looks likely to play through the injury. There's some risk of both recurrence and limited performance, but there's no way you're sitting Kupp, is there?
| | Titans at Chiefs | | Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ETLine: Chiefs -12.5; 45.5 O/UImplied totals: Chiefs 29, Titans 16.5 | | The Titans are, once again, defying the odds in first place in the AFC South at 5-2, but Vegas sure doesn't believe in them. Maybe if Ryan Tannehill is clear to play, we'll see that line shift back to the Titans, but it's hard to see Malik Willis beating the Chiefs on the road after he passed for just 40 yards against the Texans last week. | | Toughest lineup decision: Kadarius Toney -- Sit. Really, this isn't a tough call, but I'm including it here because you might be wondering. Toney is an incredibly talented player, who got a full week in the Chiefs facilities after getting traded, and he isn't on the injury report, so it sure looks like he's going to make his Chiefs debut this week. However, I expect him to step into the Skyy Moore role, returning punts and cycling in for around one-third of the team's offensive snaps. He's certainly talented enough to do more, but you've gotta let Toney prove he's worth using before you trust him. Injuries: Ryan Tannehill (ankle) -- Tannehill was limited Wednesday before being held out Thursday, so it looks like there's some real risk of him missing another game. You're probably best off avoiding Tannehill in your 2QB leagues, and Robert Woods isn't doing enough to be worth starting in most leagues, so it's probably best to just avoid everyone but Derrick Henry here. | | Ravens at Saints | | Monday, 8:30 p.m. ETLine: Ravens -2.5; 48 O/UImplied totals: Ravens 25.25, Saints 22.75 | | The Ravens came out of the gates red hot, scoring 24, 38, and 37 points in their first three games, but they've struggled since then. Last week's game against the Buccaneers was their first since Week 3 with more than 24 points. However, the Saints rank just 28th in scoring defense this season despite a shutout against the Raiders last week, so the Ravens should be able to move the ball. The question is whether the Saints will be able to keep up. | | Toughest lineup decision: Gus Edwards -- Sit, even if he plays. If Edwards is active, he's probably gonna run the ball pretty well when he's on the field. He might even find the end zone and be a decent Fantasy option. But I'm perfectly fine sitting him, because the path to Fantasy relevance is just so, so thin for him. He basically has to get into the end zone to be in the RB2 discussion, and the only way to get to RB1 range is to score multiple times. The Ravens are going to mix in multiple backs, and I probably don't want to start any of them -- maybe Kenyan Drake if Edwards is out, but everything I said about Edwards above would apply to him too, in all likelihood. Injuries: Mark Andrews (knee/shoulder) -- Andrews didn't practice Thursday, and you need to make sure you have Isaiah Likely on your roster if you're going to wait out Andrews' status, because of the Monday kickoff. If Likely isn't available and you want to wait out Andrews, see if Juwan Johnson or Taysom Hill is out there -- I don't love either, but they can hopefully keep you from taking a zero, at least ... Gus Edwards (hamstring) -- Edwards was held out of Thursday's practice and is at risk of missing this week's game ... Mark Ingram (knee) -- Ingram left last week's game with a sprained MCL and is expected to miss multiple weeks. Dwayne Washington will be Alvin Kamara's backup ... Jarvis Landry (ankle) -- Thursday was Landry's first appearance at practice since Week 5, albeit on a limited basis. It's a good sign, but I wouldn't plan on using him this week. He's worth stashing, but it's with an eye on the medium term, not Week 9. | | | | | | | | SEC Football on CBS | | NFL on CBS | This Saturday, itâs the biggest game of the season! Watch as #1 Tennessee challenges #3 Georgia in Athens. Catch the most anticipated day of SEC football at 3:30 PM ET, only on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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