| | | | Friday, April 5, 2024 | | If you were making a list of top prospects to stash on your Fantasy team based purely on talent and proximity, you could do worse than just picking a name out of a hat from the Triple-A Norfolk Tides lineup. | | Look, right there at the top is Jackson Holliday, the No. 1 prospect in baseball, and a guy who we assumed was going to be on the Orioles Opening Day roster right up until he was sent down at the last moment. Hitting third for the Tides? Heston Kjerstad, a top-50 prospect in his own right, with top-15 guy Coby Mayo hitting cleanup. Right behind him? Kyle Stowers, who isn't a top prospect, necessarily, but who did have a huge spring and has 44 homers in 190 games at Triple-A in his career. | | That Tides squad went absolutely bonkers on Wednesday night, scoring 26 runs, with those four posting these lines: | | Holliday: 4 for 6, 5 R, 2 2B, 2 RB, 2 BBKjerstad: 5 for 7, 4 R, 2 2B, 2 HR, 10 RBIMayo: 5 for 7, 2 R, 1 2B, 1 RBIStowers: 4 for 7, 3 R, 1 2B, 3 HR, 7 RBI | | | | Of course, there's a problem with stashing those guys: The Orioles don't really have any room for them. That's not entirely true – second base is still pretty wide open for Holliday whenever he proves ready (and the Orioles have a financial incentive to promote him, I guess). But the Orioles already have Colton Cowser, a top-60 prospect in his own right, mostly stuck to the bench, having started just one of the first six games this season. | | Talent isn't the only thing that matters when it comes to valuing prospects for Fantasy, in other words, and while the Orioles have an almost unfair amount of hitting talent in the high minors – including top-20 catcher prospect Samuel Basallo, who will open the season at Double-A as a 19-year-old – but for the most part, those prospects just don't have a clear path to the majors, which makes it tough to justify stashing them. | | Which is why Holliday is the only one of the team's prospects to make it onto Scott White's "Five On the Verge" section of the first version of the Prospects Report column. Holliday is, of course, the top prospect in all of baseball to stash these days, going 10 for 25 with a couple of homers in the first week of the season. And he's joined by Junior Caminero of the Rays, Ricky Tiedemann of the Blue Jays, Paul Skenes of the Pirates, and Kyle Manzardo of the Guardians as the five prospects who could get the call anytime and are worth stashing on your Fantasy benches right now. | | That I'm writing about a minor-league game from two days ago should probably tell you that Thursday wasn't the most interesting day in the history of Major League Baseball. There were just six games on the schedule, and nothing that interesting happened; no obvious, must-add waiver-wire targets jumped off the box score, and nothing too noteworthy happened in any of the games. | | And that's okay. That'll happen sometimes, especially on Thursdays, when much of the league will be off for travel days. We'll still recap what happened the previous day here, but at least today, I'm eschewing my typical writeup of the top waiver-wire targets of the day, and instead focusing on a little preview of what I'll be looking out for this weekend. In the rest of today's newsletter, I've written about 10 pitchers to watch this weekend, either because we might be looking to add them come Sunday or because it might already be time to cut bait with them. Plus, we've got the latest on Eury Perez , Royce Lewis, and more ahead of the weekend. | | Let's get to it. | | | | 10 pitchers to watch this weekend | | | | Bailey Ober, SP, Twins vs. CLE Sunday– We're almost certainly not dropping Ober no matter what happens this weekend, but … it'd be really nice if he didn't give up three homers and eight runs in 1.1 innings this time around! There was a ton of hype around Ober and his increased velocity this spring, but he wasn't fooling anyone in the first start. Was it a pitch-tipping issue? Or is there something about the extra effort Ober is throwing with that might make him a less effective pitcher? We'll find out a bit more this weekend. | | Mackenzie Gore, SP, Nationals vs. PHI Sunday– Gore was also throwing harder in his first start, but the most interesting thing there was his changeup, as I wrote earlier this week . He actually took velocity (and spin) off the pitch, while throwing it more than he ever had in an MLB start. Gore has been looking for another pitch to round out his arsenal, and I thought his first start was extremely promising, despite forgettable results. | | Jordan Hicks, RP, Giants vs. SD Friday – Hicks took three mph off his fastball in his return to the rotation, but also featured a splitter he threw 14 times – he threw it just 18 times all last season, so while it's not a new pitch for him, it might as well be. He got four of his strikeouts with that pitch, and if it can be that kind of weapon for him, we might have severely underrated his upside this spring. | | Michael King, RP, Padres @SF Saturday – We've seen King twice now, and neither performance has been particularly impressive, as he has 10 walks and five earned runs allowed in 7.1 innings of work. Predictably, his velocity has been down in his return to the rotation, and if he's not going to command his pitches well either, we might be talking about dropping King before long. | | | | Erick Fedde, SP, White Sox @KC Friday– Fedde never really built much hype this spring, but with seven strikeouts in just 4.2 innings in his debut, he gave us something to be excited about. If he can follow it up by going a bit deeper the second time out while remaining effective, we could be talking about him as a priority waiver add Sunday. | | Kutter Crawford, SP, Red Sox @LAA Saturday – The whole Red Sox starting rotation has been pretty terrific to open the season, including Crawford, who struck out seven over six innings in his first turn. He prioritized his sweeper and got great results with it, and a second strong start in a row could make him worth rostering in all leagues. | | Kenta Maeda, SP, Twins vs. OAK Saturday – Maeda isn't entirely without upside, posting a 3.36 ERA with 103 strikeouts in his final 88.1 innings last season. But he's also the kind of pitcher who really doesn't deserve much leash, because if he isn't performing, nobody in your league is likely to add him if you drop him. So, he's pitching for his job this weekend, at least in Fantasy. | | Luis Severino, RP, Mets @CIN Saturday – I don't want to give up on Severino so soon, but given how bad he was last season, I'm not planning on hanging on to him long if he continues to struggle. There was some bad defense to blame for some of his struggles in his first start, but he also needs to get a lot more whiffs than the six he had in that first outing so we can at least dream on some upside. | | DL Hall, RP, Brewers vs. SEA Saturday – The same goes for Hall, who had just five whiffs on 29 swings in his debut last weekend. His stuff just wasn't particularly sharp in his own move from the bullpen to the rotation, and we're going to need to see more from him to justify keeping him around. | | Luis Gil, SP, Yankees vs. TOR Sunday – Gil looked pretty good in his first outing against the Diamondbacks , but he only made it through 4.2 innings on his 84 pitches. He'll need to be both more efficient and capable of sustaining his stuff for more pitches to really matter for Fantasy, but the stuff – aided by a velocity jump – played, at least. | | Thursday recap | | New and notes | | Eury Perez is going to have Tommy John surgery. This was what I assumed would happen when he was initially shut down with elbow soreness, but my mood grew more optimistic after the Marlins announced that imaging showed no structural damage. He threw a bullpen session earlier this week and either wasn't fully healed or suffered a setback, but either way, he is going to have reconstructive surgery on his UCL and will be out until at least 2025, and likely until the second half of the season. This is a massive bummer for one of the most talented young players in the league – especially for me, a Marlins fan – but I guess the good news is, Perez will still be just 22 next season and should have a long and fruitful career ahead of him. But this also means he's likely to have innings limitations in 2025 and 2026, a huge impediment to his Dynasty value, especially. | | Royce Lewis received a PRP injection in his right quad. He'l be reevaluated in a month or so, and a more concrete timeline will likely come then, but I'd be surprised if we saw him before June at this point. | | Sonny Gray threw 54 pitches over his three-inning simulated game Wednesday and came out of it feeling good and says he's ready to rejoin the big-league rotation. It's not clear if he'll do that or go on a rehab assignment, but either way, he's close. | | Willson Contreras was out of the lineup Thursday against the Marlins due to swelling in his left hand. He was hit by a pitch earlier in the week, but X-rays came back negative. Ivan Herrera hit cleanup and went 2 for 5 with a homer, and could be a useful No. 2 catcher if Contreras has to miss more time. | | Tommy Edman said Thursday that while he got generally good news from his MRI on Wednesday, he remains shut down from most baseball activities. He'll have another exam on his right wrist Monday, and could be cleared to begin ramping back up next week if he receives a positive report. Even in a best-case scenario, I'd expect him to be out until late April, likely May. | | Jeimer Candelario is day-to-day with right elbow soreness. He doesn't believe it's anything serious. | | J.D. Martinez could join the Mets as soon as next week for their series in Atlanta which starts on Monday. | | Eloy Jimenez has missed four straight with that adductor injury, but was spotted on the field prior to the game doing some warm-up activities. That he hasn't been placed on the IL yet seems like a good sign, but any setback would likely lead to a multi-week absence. | | Michael Massey will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A on Friday. He's been sidelined since mid-March due to a lower-back strain. | | Victor Robles was placed on the IL with a left hamstring strain. Jacob Young started in CF Thursday with a lefty on the mound, but he probably won't be Fantasy relevant in most leagues. | | Thursday's standouts | | Pablo Lopez, SP, Twins vs. CLE: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – This was a disappointing showing from Lopez, but let's remember this is the Guardians, arguably the most contact-heavy lineup in the league. He still had 12 whiffs, including nine with his changeup and sweeper combined, and should be just fine moving forward. | | Tanner Bibee, SP, Guardians @MIN: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – On the other side of the game, we had, well, the other side of the game. The Twins were the most strikeout-happy team in the league last season, and Bibee took advantage with 17 whiffs on 91 pitches. Bibee appears to have reworked his slider, and through two starts has a 41% whiff rate with it, up from 32% last season. He pitched like a borderline ace as a rookie, and might be even better now. | | Ryan Weathers, SP, Marlins @STL: 5 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – Like a few other Marlins pitchers, Weathers garnered some spring hype with a massive increase in fastball velocity, but he hasn't really been able to sustain it – he was up 0.7 mph from last season in this one, and I'm not sure if that's enough to expect much of a jump. He gave up 12 batted balls with an average exit velocity of 92.1 mph in this one, and if you picked up Weathers with the hopes he could turn that spring hype into production, I think it's perfectly fine to drop him. | | Casey Mize, SP, Tigers @NYM: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – Mize's velocity was up 1.4 mph from 2022, and his splitter looked pretty good, but I'm still not sure the whole arsenal is there yet. He was decent in this one, but was hit pretty hard, surrendering an average exit velocity of 93.4 mph, with 10 whiffs on 87 pitches. Until he finds a breaking ball he can consistently throw for strikes or whiffs, I'm just not sure Mize has a ton of upside. It's fine to keep stashing him on your bench, but I need to see more than this. | | Matt Manning, SP, Tigers @NYM: 5.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 3 K – Manning was the 27th man for the Tigers doubleheader Thursday, and like Mize, he was largely underwhelming. He wasn't bad , obviously, and he did at least limit hard contact well, to the point where I think it's fair to say his success here wasn't just bad luck. But he was basically a two-pitch pitcher in this one, throwing his fastball and sweeper 86% of the time, and he got just five combined whiffs with those two pitches. There looks to be a high floor here, but this start didn't do much to convince me there's a high ceiling. He's going back to the minors now, so there's no real need to add him right now. | | Jose Butto, SP, Mets vs. DET: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – Butto was the pitcher on the opposite side of Manning, and like Manning, he's going back to the minors after this one. And, like Manning, he was just fine – limited hard contact, but didn't show a ton of strikeout upside. Even if he was staying up, I wouldn't be inclined to rush out and add Butto. | | Jake Burger, 3B, Marlins: Another game without a strikeout for Burger, who has just four strikeouts in eight games, continuing the improvements we saw last season. Of course, the biggest story here is the two homers for Burger, who needs to continue to hit the ball with authority for all that contact to matter. He did that last season after getting to the Marlins, and it's good to see him finally on the board with a homer. | | Victor Scott, OF, Cardinals: Scott started as the leadoff hitter for the Cardinals in their home opener, but he continues to not do much in his first taste of the majors. He's actually hitting the ball decently hard in the early going, with a 92.2 mph average exit velocity and 42.9% hard-hit rate, but he's also probably hitting the ball in the air too often, including an untenable 21% pop-up rate. He might just be overmatched right now in the majors, and I wouldn't be surprised if Scott was sent back to the minors when Lars Nootbaar is ready. | | Colt Keith, 3B, Tigers: Keith had a big day across the double header, and he really needed it. Hitting below .100 in his first four games entering Thursday, he went 3 for 8 with a key RBI double in extra innings of the first game, his first MLB extra-base hit. The rookie has been making plenty of contact in the early going, but hasn't been hitting the ball with authority, and that's going to be the key for a guy who had 27 homers and 68 extra-base hits in the minors last year. I'm still holding him, because I have faith the power will come. | | | | | | | | USL | | WE NEED TO TALK | Watch a battle in the USL as Louisville City FC takes on Indy Eleven LIVE this Saturday at 4 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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