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Hi Do, Here are Todd’s latest fun picks to take your financial skills to the next level... Happy holidays!
This is the final newsletter of 2024 to allow for a nice, long holiday break through New Years.
I announced in this newsletter back in Q4 2021 that the investment epoch changed. What worked for the prior 50 years would not work for the next 10-15 years.
I then spent all of 2022 providing independent, third-party, educational resources explaining how this regime change works, why it's inevitable, and how to profit from it.
We're now three years into my "epochal change" forecast, so how has it panned out? Was I right, or wrong?
My claim centered around a rare combination of extreme overvaluation, historically low interest rates ( remember ZIRP?!?), and structural inflation that would change how markets behaved. More specifically, passive buy and hold would provide zero returns net of inflation and extreme volatility over the subsequent 10-15 year time horizon. Not good for most investors.
Please remember that when I made the structural inflation call, inflation was considered dead... impossible. Time has proven the opposite. Inflation proved strong enough to shape the recent elections and is rapidly becoming conventional wisdom.
Unfortunately, it's too late for the bond market because the horse has already left the barn. The historic decline in the bond market exceeded 50% and remains near the lows of the past 5 years. This last point is particularly interesting because the Fed has already entered an interest rate easing cycle. The bond market would normally rise, but these aren't normal times. It's epochal change, and bonds are potentially signalling something dramatic that all investors should notice.
Stated another way, the bond market holds the key because of the U.S. Government debt and deficit problems. It's mathematically impossible for the government to repay the debt, so it must default, either in kind or in principal. History shows without exception that it will be "in kind" through inflation, so the only question remaining is timing? The answer to that question is being signaled by the bond market.
The fact that long bonds went the opposite direction during the recent interest rate cut is telling. It's still too early to know anything with confidence, but this development merits watching closely.
Meanwhile the stock market continues to climb to the most extreme levels of overvaluation in all of recorded history. However, just as my epochal change call claimed, the passive 60/40 portfolio has delivered nothing but unrewarded volatility to investors by under-performing T-Bills over the three years since I made this call - exactly as forecasted.
In a nutshell, the markets continue to prove the validity of my Epochal Change call (and there's much, much more to come!) We're only in the early innings of this 10-15 year process.
Surprisingly, it's still not too late to make smart changes and get on board with improved investment strategy. I never expected that 3 years later I'd be able to say the markets are giving you another chance.
While the massive bond market losses are already history, stocks have done the opposite giving you an incredible gift to make portfolio strategy changes with minimal financial pain.
My recommended solution using this online tactical asset allocation software has worked exactly as advertised through these crazy market gyrations. Real-time performance has matched expectations by providing a mathematically proven risk management solution to deliver positive expected returns during this period of extraordinary uncertainty. Those who took advantage back when I first announced epochal change are thankful they took action.
Fortunately for those who were hesitant, it's still not too late to (at least) diversify a portion of your assets into this strategy.
I hope you get great value from today's resources updating you on how epochal change is progressing... Grant spends his time interviewing the brightest investment and macroeconomic minds in the business for his private podcast. The wisdom gained from this daily flow of deep insight comes through in his public facing interviews where he is the guest. I'm not going to attempt to summarize highlights from the interview here because there's just too many golden nuggets for a few sentences to do justice. However, when you listen, please keep in mind my epochal change forecast. You'll see that Grant is in full agreement and everything is proceeding right on schedule with much more to come. Getting this right will be extremely important to your financial future. The opening sentence says it all. "We are at a major inflection point in macro fundamentals and market leadership, offering investors a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reposition portfolios. To put the magnitude of this opportunity into perspective, we have identified what we believe are the best trades of the past 50 years." Every chart in this article screams regime change is at hand. The peak of Chart 10 comparing stocks to cash shows the peak at the EXACT point where I first announced the investment epoch changed (Q4 2021) and told you this is what would happen. That chart (and bond market charts not in this article) demonstrate unequivocally that my epochal change call was spot on (but we're still just in the early innings). While Suzuki's analysis of the regime change is spot on, his investment recommendations at the end miss the mark. My recommended tactical asset allocation solution is the best choice because it will work if Suzuki is right, and it will work if his recommendations are wrong. It's the smart way to manage the risk of this regime change and deliver positive expected returns in this dynamically changing, uncertain, environment over the next 10-15 years.
Onward and upward!
Todd Tresidder
Take Action Now So You Can Grow Your Wealth During Epochal Change: This investment software solution includes two of Todd's top investment systems. You'll learn the smart, proven way to manage portfolio risk during epochal change. Once you understand it, you'll wonder why you tolerated the unmanaged risk in your old "buy and hold" investment strategy. My Expectancy Wealth Planning group coaching program shows you how to maximize the expected growth of your wealth in every market condition regardless of epochal change. My students were prospering during the good times, and they're still prospering during this adversity. Join this smart community of active wealth builders to secure your financial future. |
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